Ten Lessons From The Packers' First 6 Weeks

The NFL is shockingly orderly right now. This is due largely to the fact that the truly elite teams - of which the Packers are one - are just so much better than everyone else that there haven’t been as many random upsets as usual. Due to injuries to some veteran quarterbacks and a stunning and worrying lack of development among the younger set, the gap between NFL haves and have-nots has seldom been wider. Usually in the NFL wins aren’t the best measure of team quality just because there is so much luck involved in any given NFL game that bad teams frequently luck into more wins than they deserve, and good teams sometimes just have bad days. This is not the case this season, as almost every team that is leading in point differential is also leading in terms of wins and losses. Usually a discrepancy between real record and Pythagorean Record

is a good method for picking out teams that might surprise in the second half, but the Cardinals, Packers, Panthers, and Falcons in the NFC, and Pats, Jets, Bengals, Steelers, and Broncos in the AFC, are all worthy of their lofty records. If you’re looking for teams that are likely to continue dominating over the next ten games, there’s not a lot of mystery. But there is some, so let’s take a look at what the NFL has told us so far.  

1. The Packer defense is probably better than you think.

Oh, most people think they’re good, but it is worth stating again that they are actually really, really good. No team that has played 6 games has given up fewer points than the Packers’ 101. That includes the vaunted Denver Broncos who have allowed 102. The only team with a better defensive pace than the Packers is the Jets who have given up an NFL-low 75 points in 5 games.

2. The Patriots are an absolute juggernaut.

The Patriots are known for their offense, and with good reason. They’ve scored more points than every team in the AFC despite having played only 5 games, but they’ve also allowed only 103 points on the season. This is also only over 5 games instead of 6, but it’s still very good. They’ve also beaten a good Steeler team with Ben Roethlisberger, and a good, fully healthy Bills team. Still, the advanced metric DVOA likes one team better.

3. The Cardinals are the best team according to advanced efficiency stats.

The Cards are very good team, but this is an instance where I think advanced stats are overrating someone. Every elite team has played what I would consider an easy schedule so far, but the Cardinals’ has been something special. They beat the Saints in week one (25th in DVOA, with the league’s worst defense), beat the awful Bears (30th by DVOA), the awful 49ers (dead last by DVOA), lost to the Rams (17th), beat the Lions (29th), and lost to the Michael Vick/Landry Jones led Steelers. It’s one thing to not have a win over a top-25 team in college football, but it’s impressive to pull it off after 6 games of an NFL season.

This is not the Cardinals’ fault of course (except the losses). You can only play the teams on your schedule. But in the 2nd half they’ll get the Bengals, Packers, Eagles, Vikings, and Seahawks twice. If you are looking for a team to take a bit of a downturn in the 2nd half, here they are.

4. The most efficient receiver in football?

The would be none other than James Jones, who leads DVOA with 81.5% better than average rating, almost twice as efficient as the 2nd best receiver. 17 of Jones’ 21 catches have gone for first downs or touchdowns, and 3 of the 4 remaining  catches were “successful” in that they drastically increased the Packers’ chances of picking up a first down. Thanks Giants!

5. Say hello to Damarious Randall

The Packer pass defense has been stellar, ranking 4th overall in terms of efficiency. The outstanding work of Mike Daniels and Clay Matthews has a lot to do with that, but so does the play of rookie corner Damarious Randall. Sam Shields generally covers the opponent's’ “best” receiver, and against #1 receivers the Packer defense ranks a disappointing 24th. This is probably no surprise to anyone who watched Shields against Keenan Allen last week. However, no team is better against #2 receivers than the Packers, as they allow only 19.9 yards per game to the position.

This is largely due to the work of Randall. He has been a standout, shutdown performer in pass defense and he’s also not shy about stepping up in the run game. While it has only been six games, he looks like a future star.

6. Clay Matthews remains a beast.

Matthews is a fantastic pass rusher, and when he moves inside, a ferocious disrupter of the run game, however his presence has also had a drastic effect the opponent’s short-middle passing game. The Packers are 3rd in the league at defending tight ends, and 8th in defending running backs out of the backfield. This isn’t all Matthews doing, but his mere presence makes things much easier on the safeties behind him, and on the slot corners. Matthews is a lynch pin. When he is not on the field, virtually every facet of the defense becomes much weaker.

7. Davante Adams is not a deep threat.

I have seen other pundits mention that Adams’ return will fix the deep passing game, and I’ve seen those same people refer to him as a deep threat. In reality Adams is more of a hybrid Cobb/Jones, adept at catching shorter passes and bullying DBs. Last season Adams was targeted on 10 deep routes. On the deep left he was targeted 5 times, catching 2 balls for 78 yards, and he also was charged with a drop. Rodgers had an 81.3 rating when targeting Adams there. In the deep middle he was targeted twice and caught neither ball. On the deep right he was targeted 3 times, caught no balls, and Aaron was picked off once for a 0.0 rating. Adams is a very useful receiver and excelled in the medium middle of the field last season, but so far he has not shown himself to be a deep threat.

8. This is the year of defense

The NFL is severely lacking in young quarterback talent, and a few teams have decided to invest most of their resources in defense and running while using cheap retread quarterbacks, or running quarterbacks. It’s paid off handsomely for the Jets and Panthers, and to a lesser extent, for the Bills. The Jets and Panthers boast top-5 defenses and lower tier quarterbacks.  Cam Newton is mostly valuable as a runner, while Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t very good at much of anything. Tyrod Taylor has been a bargain basement star for the Bills when healthy.

All of these teams followed Seattle’s blueprint, which is ironic as Seattle decided to invest in their quarterback this offseason, and they are already paying the price in lack of financial flexibility and depth. Defense is in right now as even traditional offensive powerhouses like Denver, New England, and Green Bay bost top defenses. Arizona ranks highly as well. The only top team that’s skating by on a shaky defense is Atlanta.

9. Mike Daniels is one of the best players in football.

Daniels is an absolute monster. A two-way threat who constantly harasses quarterbacks and chases down runners with relative ease, Daniels rivals Matthews in pure indispensability. He has 4 sacks and 15 hurries on the year, and doesn’t give up anything on run defense. For the sake of comparison, the all-world JJ Watt has 4 sacks and 16 hurries on the season. Daniels is currently a huge bargain, but he is a free agent at the end of the season, and re-signing him should be priority one for Ted Thompson.

10. Tim Masthay is awful.

Finally, one of the Packers’ hidden weaknesses is Tim Masthay. He currently ranks 26th in net yards per attempt, he is not especially adept at pinning opponents inside the 20 yard line, and he has been consistently bad since joining the team. Masthay’s long punt on the year is 53 yards. Only one punter with at least 20 attempts has a shorter long (Drew Butler, Arizona). Masthay allows returns on 62.5% of his punts, tied for 3rd worst among qualifying punters. Punter isn’t the most important position in the world, but when you have a bad one, you give your opponents free yards every game.