The Old School and New School

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Jim Bievers/ Packers.com

I don’t really like the New England Patriots as they do skirt the law on a regular basis; however they are the closest thing to an NFL “Moneyball” franchise. Two weeks ago they played the New York Jets, who have an excellent defense overall, and especially against the run. Running against the Jets had been a recipe for disaster this season, mostly resulting in dangerous third-and-long situations for Jet opponents. The Patriots got around this by never running. LaGarrette Blount had 3 carries and James White had 2, and that was it for Patriot running plays. Their leading rusher on the day was the ever speedy Tom Brady with 4 carries for 15 yards. It was the kind of game plan that makes sports talk radio hosts scream about “balance” and “establishing the run” and other such nonsense, but as with most things the Patriots do, it was shockingly effective. This week against the Dolphins they had a much more normal 26 carries. The Patriots don’t have a “standard offense” in the conventional sense. They can flip from an amazing passing juggernaut to a power running juggernaut at will.

There is another philosophy that that most other teams use, which is to basically learn your scheme, and learn it so perfectly that as long as it is executed, it will always work. The Packers usually function more along these lines. In reality it isn’t so black and white and the Packers aren’t coached by idiots. They can and do target and attack opponent weaknesses, but generally they do it in their own very specific way. You can usually count on the Packers to run something like 20 times, and Randall Cobb to lead the team in targets, and they rarely stray too much. When you have Aaron Rodgers at the helm this actually works pretty well, but with the offense limited by injuries it left them exposed to another smart organization that was able to exploit their tendencies and weaknesses.

Offense

The Packer offense has been lackluster for several games now. If anyone can remember the last time a Packer receiver ran a slant pattern, please let me know. For the first four weeks Aaron Rodgers bought time and let his inexperienced receiving corps work free, and it worked, but that strategy had a cost. No receiver, not Randall Cobb, not James Jones, not Davante Adams, not Ty Montgomery, seems capable of running a timing pattern. Nearly every passing play is either a mad scramble, or a quick throw to Cobb in the hopes he can win a 1-1 matchup, and if you never run any timing patterns, you never get better at running timing patterns. 

The Broncos did a brilliant job at understanding these tendencies and scheming for them, relying on their excellent front four to generate pass rush and blanketing the medium and short field with defensive backs. The Bronco corners managed to cover all Packer receivers for an absurdly long time and no one was open even when Rodgers did have time. They also excelled at keeping Rodgers in the pocket. He remains a dangerous dual threat when he gets outside, but he was frequently bookended and forced to step up into a collapsing pocket instead of rolling out and buying additional time. Rolling out doesn’t just buy time either; it is also a clear signal for receivers to break their routes a certain direction. It is actually more difficult for receivers to improvise for a quarterback who is trapped in the pocket. Good tackling on an ailing Cobb combined with Jones’ lack of athleticism and Adams’ rust made for the worst performance I’ve ever seen from Aaron Rodgers.  Denver came into this game as the best defense against the pass, just a smidge ahead of next week’s opponent, the Carolina Panthers. The Packers can’t just burn this tape and move on, they need to figure out what went wrong in a hurry or this is going to happen again.  I would suggest starting with a screen pass, and maybe follow that up with a designed roll out. The novelty might cause the Carolina coaching staff to have a collective heart attack.

Defense

Defensively their struggles were partially related to injuries in the secondary, but they were also completely outfoxed by Gary Kubiak and Rick Dennison. When Casey Hayward is healthy he is one of the best slot corners in the league, but last night he frequently found himself out wide and singled up with 6’3” 230 pound Demaryius Thomas, and it did not go well. Sam Shields has had a very tough year, Hayward can be exploited by larger receivers out wide, and the middle of the field is often soft for the Packers. The Broncos exploited all of these weaknesses, hitting crossing route after crossing route for huge gain after huge gain. Manning was throwing the ball a little better than he has so far this year, but there were still a number of interceptable lollipops that managed to find pay dirt largely because every Bronco receiver was running wide open.  The defense, to its credit, did turn things around a bit, but once Clay Matthews hobbled off the field they were completely helpless, and Nate Palmer, immediately after replacing Matthews, made one of the worst effort plays I’ve ever seen out of a professional athlete.

It looked like the Broncos were simply a much better team, with much better talent than the Packers, but I don’t actually think that’s true. The Bronco defense is for real, and no one else is close, but the Denver offense has been quite bad, and just two weeks ago Cleveland almost beat them on the back of a strong performance by Josh McCown of all people. Earlier this year the Vikings almost beat the Broncos, picking Manning off twice and getting a solid performance out of Teddy Bridgewater. The Broncos won this game because they were smarter. They mercilessly exploited the middle of the field when they were on offense, and they dared the Packers to do something different when they were on defense. They were practically begging a Packer receiver to hit something down the field. I am still shocked that the staff made no adjustments on offense at half time. Virtually every Packer played a bad game, but the coaching staff made it very difficult for anyone to have a good one.

Next Week

Finally, the Broncos provided a perfect blue print for the Panthers. Carolina is the 5^th best team  at taking away #1 receivers, and the 3^rd best team at taking away #2 receivers.

They’re not particularly weak in any facet of pass defense (though you can run on them), and they will likely play the same kind of tight coverage medium and short. It is also worth remembering that Clay Matthews, while always important, is invaluable for stopping running quarterbacks like Cam Newton. As a pure passer Newton is only the 26^th most efficient quarterback in the league per DVOA, but he has been an excellent runner. If Matthews is hobbled, Newton is likely to run wild, and if Mike McCarthy and company don’t change things up a bit, next week could be every bit as ugly as this week.