The Packers Match Up Well Against Washington

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Jim Bievers, Packers.com

Losing the division to the Vikings – and continuing to look inept on offense – may have you feeling a bit low, and I admit that it is hard to get excited for a playoff game when you don’t have much hope beyond this week. I understand all of that and feel the same things, but I think it’s useful to appreciate this team for what it is, and not simply for its numerous flaws. We all know about the offense, the problems at wide receiver, the surprising issues and stunning lack of depth at tackle, and the various problems at running back. Those things are not going to get fixed before this weekend, and it will be what ultimately knocks the Packers out of the playoffs.

Those problems, bad as they are, should be relatively simple to fix in the offseason, and while the offense struggled mightily, the defense continues to round itself into one of the most formidable units in the league. Mike Daniels has been stellar all season long in all phases of the game, providing stout run support and a relentless pass rush. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Morgan Burnett, Quinton Rollins and Damarious Randall should anchor a very good secondary for years to come. Clay Matthews has struggled in recent weeks, but still gets after the quarterback like few others. Green Bay finished the season 9^th in defensive DVOA, up from 16^th last season. They also improved against the run compared to 2014, finishing 19^th, and were stellar against the pass, finishing 6^th. And as bad as they’ve been recently, the Packers match up very well against the Redskins this weekend.

Washington on Offense

Washington has been a mess ever for a long time, largely due to meddling owner Dan Snyder, and I personally thought they would be one of the worst teams in the league this year, but they have gotten surprising production out of their passing game and Jon Gruden’s little brother Jay deserves plenty of accolades for generating efficient offense from marginal quarterback prospect Kirk Cousins. Scot McCloughan, formerly of the Seahawks’ front office (and former Packer scout) is now the general manager and while his tenure is just getting started, so far things are going well.

Leading the offense is former Michigan State Spartan Kirk Cousins. Cousins is a controversial prospect with limited arm strength, and Washington has done a good job of focusing on his read and react skills, and generating easy throws. So how good has he been? Cousins ranks 6^th in DVOA, just ahead of Drew Brees.

Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, turned in his worst season finishing 17^th, just behind Alex Smith, which probably makes Alex Smith the happiest person on the world. Cousins isn’t a great passer, and on film many of his flaws are still evident, but he is a good decision-maker and he can get the ball out early and on time. Given his skillset it was imperative for the Redskins to have good short-to-medium range targets.  If you want to build a good short passing game, it all starts with tight end, and Washington has a great one in Jordan Reed. Reed had a spectacular season, basically equaling the production of all-world tight end Rob Gronkowski by both standard and advanced metrics.

Reed is a prototypical big target with good hands, and he is especially adept at using his body to get open near the end zone. He led the team in targets with 114, and was exactly the safety net you want for a young quarterback.

While Reed is a good foundation, you can never have too many safety valves for a young quarterback. The Washington running game is a huge weakness and in terms of efficiency it was the worst in the NFL this season. Both Alfred Morris and rookie Matt Jones struggle mightily between the tackles. That said, Jones has been excellent as a receiver, ranking 3^rd in DVOA. He can be explosive in space and has a knack for turning dump-offs into first downs. Third in command in the short passing game is rookie Jamison Crowder, a sure-handed slot possession receiver. He isn’t particularly explosive, but together the three of them can create tough matchups close to the line of scrimmage, and open up things for outside receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Garcon has been valuable if only slightly above average. Jackson has been hyper efficient when on the field, however he has been constantly injured and was rested in the season finale.

It’s not a bad offense at all, but it does play to the Packers’ strength on defense. The Redskins lack of a running game should allow the Packer pass rushers to flourish, and the secondary should have many opportunities for turnovers as a result. The Packers should be able to regularly force 3^rd-and-long situations, and hopefully, capitalize.

Washington on Defense

More importantly, the Redskin defense is a bit of a train wreck. By advanced metrics the Redskins rank 21^st overall, and they are balanced in not being able to stop much of anything. Even if the Packer passing game is struggling, Lacy and Starks should be effective against their 22^nd ranked run defense.

They were recently lit up by a Kellen Moore-led Cowboy team.

In that game Moore threw for 435 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs. The Boise State lefty isn’t exactly a world beater. Darren McFadden only had 12 carries, but managed to rip off 92 yards. Two weeks ago Sam Bradford threw for 380 yards against them, and three weeks ago every Bill except Shady ran the ball at will against this Washington team.

The Packers may have looked pathetic against a good Viking defense and a great Cardinal defense, but this is more like the Raider defense that allowed 30 (admittedly defense-aided) points to the Packers, or the Cowboys, who allowed 28. The Redskins have some good individual players on defense in D-linemen Chris Baker and Jason Hatcher, and linebackers Trent Murphy and Ryan Kerrigan, but the secondary is a mess. Dashon Goldson has struggled all season, and no Washington DB has really been above average outside of Bashaud Breeland. All that you need to know about this group is that there is a strong case for former Packer Will Blackmon as their second best DB.

The Packers should win this game. Washington won one of the worst divisions in the history of football, and while they beat the teams they were supposed to beat, their offensive numbers are bolstered by a litany of terrible defenses including 47 points against the historically bad New Orleans defense.  They are likely in the bottom third of the league in terms of actual quality, and while it’s possible that they will win on Sunday, the Packers should be favorites, even on the road.