Big Questions Loom as the Brewers Kick Off The Spring

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Photo credit: Steve Shupe/Flickr

Welcome to The On Deck Circle, Brewers beat writer Kyle Lobner’s weekly preview of the team’s week to come and its long-term future.

As the Milwaukee Brewers enter their first full week of Cactus League play, we’re getting our first good look at the organization’s entrance into a new era. This is the first spring training for new general manager David Stearns, new manager Craig Counsell, most of his coaching staff and dozens of new players, including many acquired in the 13 trades this organization has made since July of 2015.

The Brewers have fully embraced a plan to rebuild their organization from within, accumulating young, high-upside talent that they hope will help this team return to prominence on a sustainable level in the years to come. In the short term, the theme of the 2016 season will likely be looking ahead to those brighter days on the horizon.

Keeping with that theme, looking ahead is exactly what we’ll be doing here. Each Monday through the season I’ll be previewing the week ahead, keeping you updated on storylines to watch and sharing insights from conversations I’m having with the people around this Brewers team and their upcoming opponents. Welcome to “The On Deck Circle,” a place to come together each Monday and look to the future.

We’re going to get a fair amount of insight this week as the Brewers continue the early portion of their Cactus League schedule. They’re currently in the midst of a stretch that will see them play 14 games in 13 days (including last week’s exhibition against UW-Milwaukee), and here are some of the questions we could see answered over that time:

How healthy is Ryan Braun?

Braun’s recovery from offseason back surgery has been well documented, and the story continued into spring training with Counsell’s acknowledgement that Braun is participating in drills but the team is making efforts to limit his activity and likely won’t play him often in early spring games.

While resting Braun in an effort to save his strength for the games that count makes a lot of sense, it could cause even more questions to arise if he still isn’t playing by the middle of the month. In the meantime, however, letting him rest gives the Brewers more opportunity to evaluate the ten other outfielders in major league camp.

What about this team’s other candidates to bounce back?

Matt Garza has been non-competitive in spring training in each of his first two seasons as a Brewer, allowing 75 combined hits and walks over 37 1/3 Cactus League innings in 2014 and 2015. He almost certainly needs to perform better than that this spring to convince the organization and fans that he’s turned the corner from an awful 2015 season. He struggled out of the gate on Sunday, allowing a home run and a pair of walks while failing to complete two innings.

Wily Peralta was better than Garza when he was able to pitch in 2015 but missed two months with an oblique strain and struggled with consistency. His earned run average, hits, walks and strikeouts per nine innings all took a step back in 2015, but he’s still projected to be the Brewers’ Opening Day starter. Despite the fact that he won’t turn 27 until May, 2016 will be Peralta’s fourth full major league season. This year could determine a lot about his future.

Jonathan Lucroy was an MVP candidate in 2014 but got off to a slow start in 2015 (batting .235 with a .287 OBP and .301 slugging in his first 39 games), and missed time in both May and September with a broken toe and concussion, respectively. Lucroy was a much better hitter down the stretch last season, posting a .284 average with .352 OBP and .454 slugging after July 2, and getting off to a start like that again in 2016 might help the Brewers fulfill his wish to play for a contending team.

How soon is the future?

Several of the Brewers’ top prospects are in major league camp this spring, but the brightest spotlights are shining on shortstop Orlando Arcia and outfielder Brett Phillips. Neither player is expected to open the season on the MLB roster, but either or both could press that issue with a hot spring. Their performances while regularly facing elite talent this March could help determine if their MLB debuts happen in April, sometime later in the year or further down the road.

Are there any other moves coming?

From July 23 of 2015 through February 12 of 2016, the Brewers averaged one trade every 16 ½ days. By that math, they’re actually overdue to make another deal.

It seems unlikely that David Stearns and company will continue to pull off transactions every two weeks indefinitely. With that said, if he gets an opportunity to advance the organization’s rebuild by moving a player like Jonathan Lucroy, Will Smith or even Ryan Braun, it’s hard to believe he wouldn’t consider it.