A year ago the Brewers played a hunch. They entered the 2015 season almost unchanged, betting their collapse from playoff contention the previous September was a fluke, not an omen. An equally disastrous April proved them wrong, and a 68-94 season produced a new manager and general manager with a mandate to overhaul the team.
A new season begins Monday with a near-certainty: This rebuilding isn’t likely to be quick. General Manager David Stearns and Manager Craig Counsell are assembling a lot of youthful talent, but how much progress will fans see this year? The Fairly Detached Observers discuss...
Artie: I know one statistic that’ll skyrocket—program sales.
Frank: “Can’t tell the players without a scorecard.” Among the non-pitchers starting Monday, there’ll be a maximum of three holdovers from a year ago: Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy and Scooter Gennett.
A: Assuming Gennett doesn’t find himself platooning at second base. What I think will be really interesting is comparing Monday’s lineup to who’s on the field come late July. Will the whiz kid, Orlando Arcia, be up here at shortstop? Will they have settled on any of the many candidates at third base and center field?
F: And will Lucroy, who said he’d rather skip the rebuilding, be dispatched in exchange for yet more high-potential youngsters?
A: How about Matt Garza, the graybeard of the starting rotation? Unless he has a Cy Young couple of months he can’t be in their future scheme, even though he’s signed through next year!
F: At least these Brewers can relax, since no one expects them to contend. The Sports Illustrated preview—which pegs them for 70-92—describes how each team could win the World Series. The blurb for the Brewers says they need not only big years from Braun and Lucroy, “but also big rookie seasons from Arcia...outfielder Brett Phillips and pitchers Josh Hader and Jorge Lopez.” But will any of those kids be here before the September call-ups?
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A: I think 70-92 would be a decent season, but there are so many “ifs.” The biggest is whether the young starting pitchers—Wily Peralta, Jimmy Nelson, Taylor Jungmann, Chase Anderson—live up to expectations. That didn’t happen last year with the exception of Jungmann, until he ran out of gas.
F: Also, if the bullpen, a relative strength last year, can be that way again.
A: Relievers all ride the roller coaster, individually and as a unit. And Will Smith’s torn knee ligament—from a freaky clubhouse accident, no less—sure ain’t good news. By the way, I’d park Garza in the pen to give, say, Zach Davies a starting spot.
F: But bullpen work was exactly what Garza rejected last year, when he wound up taking the last month off. Now, how about the offense? With some of the newcomers—like first baseman Chris Carter and rightfielder Domingo Santana—we’ll see some long home runs but also a lot of strikeouts.
A: Shades of Russell Branyan and Mark Reynolds! With Houston last year Carter had 151 K’s in 391 at-bats, along with 24 homers. Santana has 77 K’s in just 177 major league at-bats. And one of the center field hopefuls, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, fanned 18 times in his first 40 at-bats in Arizona!
F: Looks like more of the free-swinging, feast-or-famine style that Doug Melvin seemed to favor.
A: A couple of youngsters who’ve been having big springs are infielder Yadiel Rivera and outfielder Keon Broxton. They should be in the mix for starting spots.
F: As always, staying relatively healthy is the most important thing for any team. The lower-back trouble that popped up for Braun last week is worrisome.
A: After off-season disc surgery, you betcha. And there’s that thumb problem he’s had repairs for. They say it’s been OK in training camp.
F: Well, last year it was “OK” until it wasn’t a couple of times. Lucroy has had some fluky injuries in recent years, and a concussion episode too.
A: And now this thing with Smith’s knee. He was pegged to share the closer duties with Jeremy Jeffress, at least for a while.
F: In past years, we’ve made detailed predictions for all the division races and the post-season...
A: Most of which we would have regretted, if either we or our readers bothered to remember them!
F: But we’re downsizing our forecast to just the National League Central. I’m riding a two-year streak of misplaced optimism for the Brewers, having forecast wild-card spots in ’14 and ’15. I’m staying optimistic, but in a rebuilding context that means 75-ish wins and a surprising third-place finish—behind the Cubs and Cardinals but ahead of Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.
A: I’ve got Cubs-Pirates-Cardinals-Reds, with the Crew in the cellar, but for a constructive reason: If they finish last they can only improve in 2017, but if they’re fourth, and then slip to last in ’17, it’ll be, “Oh look, they were bad but now they’re even worse.” And I do think it’ll take at least two full seasons before they can even think about a .500 record.
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F: There are recent precedents. The Royals took their lumps over a decade in building up to their winning bunch. Houston—Stearns’ former club—had 106, 107 and 111 losses from 2011-’13. And the Cubs, now entering their fifth season under GM Theo Epstein, lost 101 and 96 in his first two years.
A: That’s why my expectations are set on “low.”
They’re Lookin’ at “Luc”
A: I saw something interesting on Yahoo Sports last week. They quoted USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who wrote: “The Brewers were engaged in talks involving the Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros in a three-way deal that failed to materialize. The Brewers have attached an exorbitant price tag on Lucroy’s value, and who can blame them?”
F: When did this supposedly happen?
A: Sometime before training camp started. That kind of goes against the grain of the Brewers’ usual line that “we’ll always look at offers but we’re not shopping him.”
F: Any more details?
A: Not really. Nightengale also wrote, “Exactly which team would have landed Lucroy was not specified... If the Braves were to acquire Lucroy, their rebuilding process would have been accelerated...”
F: But would Lucroy have liked an Atlanta rebuilding any more than a Milwaukee one? And from the Brewers’ viewpoint, why wouldn’t they wait until summer when some other team believes that they really, really need Lucroy to get them to the playoffs this year?
A: And also who would the Brewers have to catch if Lucroy was gone? Joe Garagiola and Yogi are both dead now. Sherm Lollar? I doubt he’s still around...
F: One of the many, many prospects who’s in the pipeline is a catcher, right?
A: Jacob Nottingham, but he’s only 20 and still getting seasoned.
Back and Forth They Go
F: If my optimism comes true, it could be like the Bucks’ situation from last season. Part of the reason their improvement looked so remarkable was that the base line of 15 wins in 2013-’14 was so low.
A: Exactly why I want the Crew to be fifth this year! Look what’s happened to the Bucks this season—they soared so much last year that now the decline looks worse than it is!
F: Who can argue with that logic?
A: Any particular reason you think the Pirates will have a down year?
F: Nothing I can put my finger on. I just think that after a great three-year run, but also the disappointment of losing two straight wild-card showdowns in their home park, they might be due for a letdown.
A: I’m picking the Cardinals for that “downturn” team this year, with the Pirates above them in second.
F: In the past St. Louis has been able to overcome major injuries to guys like Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Yadier Molina. But sooner or later they’re bound to have a year when the injuries hit and they don’t compensate as well. And they’ve already lost shortstop Jhonny Peralta for a long stretch with a torn thumb ligament.
A: Plus I wonder about Wainwright bouncing back from his torn Achilles’ of last year. And even if they stay healthy otherwise, I just think it’s time for a St. Louis to fade. I sure hope so, anyway.
F: Many people are assuming the Cubs are destined to grab the NL Central crown, and a lot more.
A: Probably a lot of the same people who had the World Series crown handed to Washington at this time last year.
F: Not that the Cubs aren’t formidable, although I was puzzled about why they thought Jason Heyward was worth the money they pledged to get him away from St. Louis.
A: They paid because they have the dough.
F: Well, at least until President Trump initiates that investigation of the Ricketts family.
A: What’s that all about again?
F: I guess some branch of the family—though not the one that owns the Cubs—spent big bucks running anti-Trump campaign ads recently.
A: Well now, that’s a Trump vendetta I could go for!
A Few More Issues
F: Any more to say about individual players?
A: Well, despite his strikeouts I’ve read where Santana is being considered for the leadoff spot.
F: That would continue another pattern from recent years. How many years have they had trouble settling on that spot? “Corey Hart can do it… Rickie Weeks... Scooter… Segura...” Lucroy even has been there a bit.
A: I guess it’s not the worst problem a team can have.
F: But it does say something about the type of offense you have, if you can’t find one guy who has a consistently high on-base percentage, good discipline at the plate.
A: And the Brewers were, let’s see... 13th in a 15-team league in on-base percentage last year.
F: Something that caught my eye the other day was the note that Chase Anderson had first-inning issues. Last week, pitching in a Double-A game, he gave up two homers in that inning—making it four in 10 2/3 innings overall.
A: I think we may have this year’s successor to Braden Looper!
F: It may not be that bad. In his first two years in the majors, Anderson has allowed 34 homers in 48 starts, and about one every seven innings. That’s nowhere near the Looper level. In his one year here, 2009, Looper gave up 39 dingers in 194.2 innings, or about one every five innings. And last year Kyle Lohse gave up 29 in 152.1 innings, about one every 5.1 innings. So Anderson would have to get a lot worse to match them.
A: I’ll bet he could do it. He’s got a heritage to live up to! Not just Looper but Randy Wolf and of course good ol’ “Soup,” Jeff Suppan.
F: As a staff the Brewers have spent several years among the worst in the league in terms of homers surrendered. Last year they were 11th-worst in the NL.
A: And the starters, as a unit, ranked 24th in the majors in ERA, 25th in wins, 23rd in opposing batting average. Which is why the burden on those young guys is so crucial.
Filling the Time
F: I’d like to say some things about one of our favorite peeves—the pace of games.
A: Something Major League Baseball does a lot of blathering about but very little to improve.
F: Well, there was some progress last year, after they made some rules about staying in the batter’s box and started putting the half-inning breaks and pitching changes “on the clock.”
A: Do tell...
F: Apparently the average time of games in the regular season decreased six minutes—but that only got it to 2:56.
A: Still at least 20 minutes longer than what it should be.
F: But in the top levels of the minors, where 20-second pitch clocks were begun, the progress was more dramatic. At the Triple-A level, the average game time was down 16 minutes in the International League, to 2:40, and down 13 minutes in the Pacific Coast League, to 2:45.
A: Bring those pitch clocks up here!
F: That isn’t happening yet, but there are a couple of new measures. This year, anytime a coach or manager goes to the mound there’ll be a 30-second limit—and it’s supposed to begin as soon as they leave the dugout.
A: Some of those older guys will just be arriving when the ump tells ’em to make a U-turn.
F: Also, the between-innings clock is going from 2:25 to 2:05. That does not mean less time for commercials, but that players will have to be ready to go as soon as the TV and radio come back.
A: As much as I want action on the time of games, I pray that someone will try to do something about the VOLUME during games!
F: I was in Arizona in early March and saw a Brewers game at the Maryvale complex. And it took me about an inning to notice something. I was sitting there, having a nice conversation with some folks next to me, nice and relaxed, and it finally dawned—holy mackerel, there wasn’t the blaring of music between pitches that we get constantly at Miller Park.
A: Delightful, ain’a?
F: You betcha! We’re never going to escape from the bombardment between innings—for one thing, they’ll always have to get all their in-stadium commercials in—but why not do away with the seven seconds of “Ice, Ice Baby” or “Smoke on the Water”?
A: Is it to keep the young people’s interest up? They’re probably just staring at their iPhones anyway. During the innings the most they should do is let some guy wander the stands blowing “Charge” on a trumpet once in a while.
F: Or an old-fashioned organ?
A: I guess, but sparingly. Have some respect for the deceased, or the soon-to-be deceased.
F: Morituri, in the original Latin. As in the gladiators’ cry to Caesar: “We who are about to die salute you.
A: In this context, it’s “We who are being noised to death implore you...”
Frank Clines covered sports for The Milwaukee Journal and the Journal Sentinel. Art Kumbalek spends each season on the disabled list.
