After the Packers

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This was going to be such a happy column. When last heard from in September, the Fairly Detached Observers predicted the Packers would be in Super Bowl XLIX, facing New England or Indianapolis. On Jan. 18 everything was moving toward a headline on this page saying, “WE TOLD YOU SO!”

And then...

But the Observers aren’t bitter over losing their “genius” label. They seek only to heal the wounds of Packer Nation, and so they turn to how the 2015 team can complete the dream...

Frank: Given the Patriots’ blowout of Indy, you almost nailed the Super Bowl matchup for a second straight year.

Artie: During the Seattle game I was kicking myself for not hitting Vegas last summer to place my bet. Then I stopped kicking—so I could pound my head on the wall.

F: There’s blame enough for just about every player and coach. But let’s look ahead; what must the Packers do to take that last step a year from now?

A: Start with extra-special attention to things like fielding onside kicks and defending fake field goals.

F: The special teams coach, Shawn Slocum, may walk the plank for those gaffes—and the punt-return touchdown in the loss at Buffalo.

A: Which cost them the home field against the Seahawks.

F: How about the offensive and defensive systems? They worked well enough for 56 minutes in Seattle, and during most of the regular season.

A: Especially after the bye week, when the defense was ranked near the bottom of the league. Then they moved Clay Matthews inside and Sam Barrington into an outside linebacker spot, demoting A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones. That was the ticket!

F: So this version of Dom Capers’ 3-4 scheme is the right foundation?

A: There will always be player breakdowns, but the concept is sound. And he’s got lots of wrinkles in that “3-4 scheme.” At the end in Seattle I think the defense was a little shell-shocked after Morgan Burnett made that interception but shut down his return, and then the offense shut down too.

F: OK, let’s talk offensive “scheme.” Aaron Rodgers seemed to say some of the play-calling tied his hands.

A: He used the word “aggressive,” as in not being enough.

F: So is there tension between Rodgers and the play-caller, Mike McCarthy?

A: I don’t know, but a hot topic is whether the offensive coordinator, Tom Clements, should call the plays and have McCarthy oversee the game. McCarthy is a good offensive architect, but some critics say he’s a terrible in-game decision-maker. Maybe he’s got too much on his plate; he’s always got his face in that play chart and maybe not seeing the whole picture.

F: Not that the offense hasn’t been productive.

A: This year in total offense, which is yards gained, the Pack ranked sixth out of 32 teams—eighth in passing, 11th in rushing. Of course New Orleans had the No. 1 offense, but so what? They were 31st in total defense.

F: And the Packers on defense?

A: Fifteenth overall, but that’s way up from where they ranked at their bye week.

F: Who knows whether Clements would be bolder than McCarthy in, say, trying to protect a fourth-quarter lead?

A: And how much autonomy would he have? But I think it’s worth a try.

F: Scheme is one thing but the players execute it. A lot of Packers are unrestricted free agents; how many are absolutely essential to re-sign?

A: Everything is affected by what it would mean to the salary cap, and by other offers a guy might get. You know some team will make a ridiculous offer to Randall Cobb that, given the other guys Ted Thompson hopes to sign, could make Cobb too pricey.

F: But if it works within the cap, who should stay?

A: Cobb and Bryan Bulaga for sure. Cornerbacks Tramon Williams and Davon House. But it’s time to say enough of Matt Flynn, re-sign Scott Tolzien and get him all set as No. 2 to Rodgers. But also draft a QB.

F: Other needs to fill in the draft?

A: Definitely an inside linebacker. And you always need depth on the offensive line. This season the Pack stayed generally healthy—they were due for that good fortune!—but you can’t count on anything.

F: As Bob McGinn, of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, wrote before the Seattle game, there could be no excuses because the team had stayed intact.

A: That’s what made the loss so crushing.

F: But it’s hardly the end of the Packers as a top-tier team.

A: They still have Rodgers and a lot of first- and second-year players who gained a lot of experience. The O-line isn’t especially aging and was grade-A. Add a good draft and there’s no reason they couldn’t get back to the NFC title game—and this time close it out!

F: But the loss will test the team’s spirit.

A: I don’t think there’s much need for motivation.

OH YEAH, THE “BIG” GAME

F: There will still be a Super Bowl. Any rooting interest?

A: I see it dead-even, or “pick ’em” in Vegas lingo. Seattle was tops in overall defense and passing defense but New England sure can score. I’ll enjoy watching, but neither team appeals to me at all.

F: Same here.

WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE?

F: The unappealing nature of the Super Bowl teams begins, for me, with the coaches. Pete Carroll is too much of a rah-rah guy and Bill Belichick is just a sourpuss.

A: With “Deflategate” in full swing, people are calling Belichick a serial cheater and talking about his forever-tarnished legacy. Hey, anyone remember Pete Carroll at USC?

F: He presided over a program that had its 2004 BCS title vacated because of all sorts of improper benefits to Reggie Bush. Lots of people believe he took the Seattle job to “get out of town before the posse arrived.”

A: So as far as I’m concerned we’ve got two cheaters.

F: I’ll say this about “Deflategate,” though. All NFL quarterbacks “work” the game balls to their satisfaction before a game...

A: Which is why Troy Aikman, for one, says that Brady must have been involved in the deflating.

F: And Brady did say that he likes the ball inflated at the low end of the required range. So why didn’t the media explore the possibility that the chilly, wet weather may have sent the balls below that minimum level? That theory only got wide reporting over the weekend, after Belichick raised it—and some scientists supported him.

A: Consider the source, I’d say.

F: Right, and that’s one of my points. Belichick, a proven signal-stealer and rule-bender, has no claim to the benefit of the doubt. And because of his association with Belichick, the Golden Boy quarterback is doubted.

A: In his first press conference Belichick sounded like he was throwing Brady under the bus. Then Brady sounded like he was throwing some lowly equipment man under the bus.

F: Now it looks like Mother Nature is wearing some tire tracks. But here’s another point; I see something of a local angle to all the skepticism toward Brady.

A: How so?

F: On one of the ESPN gasbag shows someone said Brady looked quite believable, then added, “But did you believe Ryan Braun?”

A: Our very own proven liar about cheating.

F: You could add Lance Armstrong, Alex Rodriguez and Marion Jones to that question. Braun’s admission of lying about his use of performance-enhancing drugs—after an emphatic, impassioned denial—has helped create the assumption for many people that every athlete will lie to save his or her hide.

A: Come to think of it, Brady looked just as sincere as Braun did at spring training in 2012.

F: Well, back to the Super Bowl. How about Russell Wilson as someone you can root for?

A: Nah. He was at Wisconsin for one year, so one Super Bowl’s worth of rooting is all he gets from me. I think as the game goes on, whoever’s behind I’ll start rooting for. That’s all I can come up with.

NOW FOR SOME BASEBALL

F: Umm, speaking of disasters, the last time readers heard from us the Brewers had just gone 1-5 in San Diego and San Francisco, but they still had a share of the National League Central lead with 26 games to go. Our headline was, “Hold On, Brewers Fans.”

A: Hold on to what? We sure didn’t hold on to our sanity! They proceeded to get swept in Chicago, lose three of four to the Cardinals at home and stagger on through a 9-17 September to a third-place finish.

F: Quite a different kind of collapse than the Packers’. A “death of a thousand cuts” instead of a sudden bolt from the Seahawk blue.

A: But just as devastating. Don’t even think of asking me which is worse.

F: But which do you think might be easier to recover from?

A: Well, right now I’m not very optimistic about the 2015 Brewers. They haven’t done much in the off-season to make me feel better.

F: Adding Adam Lind from Toronto presumably solved their first-base problem, at least against right-handed pitching.

A: That’s a big “presumably,” I’d say.

F: Well, do you think they may have “added by subtraction” in sending Yovani Gallardo to Texas?

A: First of all, does Doug Melvin still have some stake in the Rangers? He’s always making deals with his old team. But I sure won’t miss all that Yo-Yo inconsistency on the mound.

F: Another buddy of mine had this quote on Gallardo: “He’ll never be a top-tier pitcher.”

A: He may have one year where everything falls into place. But maybe not.

F: Some of his numbers look pretty darn good. In what adds up to about seven full seasons in Milwaukee, he went 89-64 with a 3.69 ERA. And by the diluted standards of this era, he was a workhorse—at least 30 starts in each of the last six years, and overall 1,280 innings in 211 starts.

A: Durable, yes, but that works out to almost exactly six innings per start. Which means he sure wore out some bullpens by making them pick up nine or more outs a lot of times.

F: The truly top-notch starters at least get into the seventh inning on a consistent basis.

A: We hear the expression, “He’s an innings eater,” but that should really be used in terms of game-by-game instead of just looking at a total for the year.

F: And in that context, Gallardo reached the current gold standard, 200 innings, only twice in his six full seasons in the Brewers’ rotation.

A: And so often when he pitched it was so frustrating—and not just because we always seemed to get stuck with him in our visits to Miller Park

F: We’d always roll our eyes because our experience was, “Yo means slow.” The guy just never delivered his pitches with any kind of crisp pace.

A: Even though he occasionally talked about wanting to be quicker and more efficient.

F: Here are some numbers from ESPN.com. Last year Gallardo averaged 16.7 pitches per inning, which was more than 36 starters in the National League. And that was the best per-inning rate of his Milwaukee career. To provide some context, Clayton Kershaw led the NL at 13.7 pitches per inning, Adam Wainwright had 14.4, Jordan Zimmermann 14.6 and Madison Bumgarner 15.5.

A: Take 16.7, do some multiplying and what do you get? A hundred pitches in six innings.

F: And given the bugaboo status of 100 pitches in the modern game, that means a lot of less-than-ideal exits. In his 33 starts last year, Gallardo pitched past the sixth in only 13.

A: I don’t care how good a bullpen is, that’s an extra burden.

F: Especially when managers are so programmed to think of relievers in terms of one or two outs, not one or two innings.

A: Well, I know one good thing about Yo’s departure; it must make the Cardinals angry. He was their patsy!

F: To the tune of 1-11 with a 6:45 ERA in 19 games. But the Pirates must be glad to see him go; he was 12-5 and 2.55 against them over 26 games. By the way, Texas doesn’t play St. Louis, Pittsburgh or Milwaukee this season.

A: Good! With our luck we’d go to a Brewers-Rangers game and see Yo back on the hill. And he’d go the distance with a two-hitter!

F: So are you comfortable with the idea of young Jimmy Nelson ascending into the rotation to replace Gallardo?

A: The knock on him last year was that he’s a two-pitch pitcher, which would make him better in the bullpen. A guy with just two pitches often has trouble the second time through a lineup. Now the hot story is that Melvin is talking with the Phillies about a deal for Jonathan Papelbon, the closer. But who would the Phillies want for him? Probably Nelson. And if that happened, who’s the fifth starter?

F: Getting Zimmermann from Washington has been mentioned, and he’d be a good fit as a Wisconsin native. Of course, who would the Nationals want for him?

A: It would be another of those possible “one and done” deals because he’ll be a free agent after the season. And Zimmermann will make $12 million this year. But he’d sure look good in a rotation with Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Wily Peralta and Mike Fiers.

F: The Brewers saved $9 million in trading Gallardo, though they had to kick in about $4 million to Texas. But to add Papelbon they’d have to take on $13 million this year and another $13 million if he closed at least 48 games in 2015.

A: I guess I’d be more confident with Papelbon closing instead of Jonathan Broxton—who’ll make $9 million himself! But how much can the payroll expand?

F: Well, all this will be clarified in a few weeks when we return to the Shepherd Express with our Brewers preview.

A: I hope I’m more optimistic about ’em then.

THE CLASS OF 2015

F: Staying with baseball, readers missed our annual discussion of my Hall of Fame ballot. I’m sure they’ll be impressed to know that I brilliantly gave my support to Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Craig Biggio, all of whom were elected.

A: And all deservedly so.

F: The rest of my 10 votes, the maximum allowed, went to Mike Piazza, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell and Larry Walker. After the four inductees the two highest totals went to Piazza, at almost 70%, and Jeff Bagwell at about 56%.

A: We’ve talked before about a certain amount of innuendo surrounding those guys in terms of drug use—although without any proof.

F: Piazza gained almost eight percentage points this time, so it looks like he could hit the 75% requirement in a year or two. What if he gets elected and someone pops up with accusations or even some evidence?

A: That would make things very, very interesting.

F: Also noteworthy in the voting was that almost everyone who got votes the previous year increased his percentage. The only guys who dropped, and just by a little, were Jeff Kent, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa.

A: Did the number of voters go up?

F: No, it declined from 571 to 549! That tells me that almost everyone in the Baseball Writers’ Association of America was filling out a “full” ballot of 10 choices. In the past that was sort of frowned upon.

A: But now, as we’ve said before, with 30 teams and so many more players in the general pool, there are more players who are at least worth mentioning in the voting discussion.

F: And there’s increasing talk in the BBWAA about whether the voting limit should rise to 12 or even 15.

A: Who are some of the big names joining the ballot in the next few years?

F: For the 2016 ballot in December you’ve got Ken Griffey Jr. and Trevor Hoffman. The year after that will include Vladimir Guerrero, Jorge Posada, Manny Ramirez and Ivan Rodriguez. And for 2018 there’ll be Chipper Jones, Jim Thome and Omar Vizquel.

A: I’d still like to see Tim Raines get in. He’s my new cause.

F: Shades of Bert Blyleven! You won me over on Bert, and he eventually made it. Raines was right behind Bagwell at 55% of the vote, gaining nine percentage points.

A: I saw something recently that documented this fact: Tim Raines reached base more often than Tony Gwynn.

F: Really?

A: Yup. Gwynn had 536 more hits (3,141 to 2,605), but Raines had 540 more walks (1,330 to 790) and wound up reaching base 3,977 times to Gwynn’s 3,955—in roughly the same number of plate appearances (10,539 to Gwynn’s 10,272). And Raines stole way more bases (808 to Gwynn’s 319) and scored more runs (1,571 to 1,383).

F: Of course Gwynn, a first-ballot Hall of Famer, was a career .338 hitter, 44 points above Raines. But their on-base percentages were both in the high .380s.

A: And I also read that Raines reached base more than Roberto Clemente (3,656).

F: I may just have to become a Raines convert when I get my next ballot.

GREEN AND GROWING AGAIN

F: Now to one of the big surprises of the NBA, none other than the Bucks. Coming off a 15-67 mess last season, they hit the halfway mark at 21-20 and as we speak are holding the No. 6 spot in the Eastern Conference.

A: Here’s a bet I definitely should have made. The under-over on victories this season, I think, was 25. Man, I should have gone for that “over.”

F: You really can be an optimist sometimes.

A: And the most striking thing about the Bucks is that they’re improved so much despite losing Jabari Parker for the season, Ersan Ilyasova for a recent stretch and having Larry Sanders disappear again into whatever behavioral and emotional problems he has. They had counted on Parker and Sanders for major minutes.

F: Not to rain on the Bucks’ parade, but at the halfway point they had a 6-15 record against teams with .500 or better records—as opposed to 15-5 against sub-.500 teams. That may be an indication of just how bad the East is.

A: On the other hand, they were 7-7 against teams from the supposedly mighty West. One big reason for the turnaround is that they’ve restocked their bench with guys who have really contributed—Jared Dudley, Kendall Marshall, Jerryd Bayless. Plus, O.J. Mayo has really turned himself around.

F: So Sanders heads toward oblivion but Mayo comes back from his utter oblivion of last season.

A: And something else: Jason Kidd is a good coach.

F: I guess so, no matter what they think of him in New Jersey. He’s got to have something to do with it!

EVERYTHING THEY’VE GOT

F: On to college hoops. I’ve enjoyed watching Steve Wojciechowski get the most out of his undermanned, undersized Marquette team.

A: I haven’t really seen much of the Golden Eagles, but I know that despite having only eight scholarship players they’ve been in almost every game right to the end.

F: They ran out of gas in overtime Saturday against Georgetown, but they battled all the way. Their 2-5 start in the Big East has involved nothing but close losses.

A: I also know that Duane Wilson, the local product out of Dominican High School, is playing pretty well after missing all of last season with injury.

F: He had 26 points against Georgetown, matching Matt Carlino, who’s giving them much-needed scoring and leadership as a graduate-student transfer.

A: Too bad he’s only here for one season.

F: The other Wilson, Derrick, catches a lot of heat because he has no shot. But just about every game I’ve seen includes an announcer praising him for the other things he does. He has his moments in terms of scoring—not because he can shoot but because he gets to the hoop. He even dunked on G-Town! And he plays tough defense, takes charges and doesn’t turn the ball over much.

A: The freshman Sandy Cohen also has had his moments.

F: The Eagles lost several players in the transition from Buzz Williams to “Wojo,” but the guys who are here are the guys who want to be here. It’s probably a good thing that Deonte Burton departed in December and Todd Mayo bolted last summer.

F: Newcomer Luke Fischer hasn’t been dominating but he’s had his moments too. Just the fact that he has a nice jump-hook with either hand is good.

A: And next year they’ll have that excellent recruit from Rice Lake, Henry Ellenson, to go with Fischer and give them two real promising big men.

F: Now let’s look at Wisconsin. They manhandled a ranked Iowa team despite having lost Traevon Jackson for the next few weeks. I know his foot injury worries you a lot.

A: Absolutely, because that guy is pretty clutch, and he always shows up big in tight ball games. Plus he’s their best free-throw shooter this season.

F: Hitting 85.4%, and he’s improved every year since he was a freshman. And you always note that come tournament time, free-throw shooting is extra-important.

A: When you get in those late-game situations where the other team has to foul, just get it to Jackson. But at least they say he’s not out for the season.

 F: And as long as Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker and the others stay healthy, you expect the Badgers to stay high in the national rankings?

A: They’ll probably lose a couple of games they might not have otherwise...

F: That overtime game at Michigan was a narrow escape.

A: And come seeding time they won’t have as good a spot as they did last year, when they were a No. 2. But if Jackson is back and his usual self by then, they’ll be set up for another big run.

AND AN EXTRA POINT FOR UW

F: Back to football. Does Ohio State’s national championship make you feel better as a Badgers and Big Ten supporter? At least the team that whacked UW 59-0 wound up with the title.

A: I guess. But except for the Badgers I’m not that into college football. And I couldn’t care less about your Alabamas and Auburns and all that SEC garbage...

F: ’Bama and Auburn lost their bowl games, along with LSU and both Mississippi teams, which were in the national playoff picture for several weeks. Does that mean the supposedly invincible SEC is on the wane and the Big Ten may be on the rise?

A: Well, let’s see it happen for another year or two, see what Jim Harbaugh does for Michigan.

F: And are you happy about Paul Chryst taking over at UW?

A: I am for sure. This is a great hire!

F: Should it have happened two years ago when they went for Gary Andersen?

A: Well, Barry Alvarez didn’t want to go after Chryst at that time because he had just finished his first year at Pitt. As for Andersen, I think Alvarez was blind-sided by Bret Bielema’s sudden exit, and probably felt he had to act quickly.

F: Even though Andersen, he of the wide-open spread offense at Utah State, might not have fit in with the Badgers’ power-game history?

A: Sure seems that way in retrospect.

F: Not a good mesh with Barry?

A: Or fans, or the big donors, I think. Plus there was some questionable stuff in terms of Andersen’s decision-making.

F:Well, in the opener against LSU there was this business about Andersen saying he didn’t know why Melvin Gordon wasn’t on the field more in the second half.

A: And his handling of the quarterbacks, choosing Tanner McEvoy over Joel Stave and saying Stave was injured in that first game, but Stave saying he was fine. Anyway, I’m just glad Andersen is gone, and with Chryst’s experience as an offensive coordinator I think he can really develop QBs. And his being from Wisconsin is a big asset.

F: It helps to have a guy who really wants to be there.

A: They all say it, but you know for sure that Chryst means it.

Frank Clines covered sports for The Milwaukee Journal and the Journal Sentinel. Art Kumbalek bleeds green and gold.