Barrett: Will He or Won’t He Run for Governor?

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett will announce he’s running for governor on Sunday, just a few hours before the state becomes distracted by the Packers/Cowboys game. Of course, Barrett's camp is saying it's just an announcement and Barrett hasn't decided if he will run, but maybe they're just trying to create some drama after months of speculation. Or maybe Barrett really, truly hasn't made a final decision.

Here's my two cents, for what it's worth:

Why Barrett will run:

• He loves politics and he’s already got money in the bank

• He won’t have to give up his day job

• He’ll likely get a free ride without a serious opponent in the Democratic primaries

• He has the support of the outgoing governor (and Doyle’s $2 million war chest, which he can spend pretty freely) and possibly the White House and the national Democratic Party

• He can’t be easily tagged as being a big-city liberal, since he’s supported many of the same issues pushed by the conservative MMAC

• He has high name recognition and has done well in recent polls

• He’ll be more palatable to moderate voters than the two declared Republican candidates, who are racing to the right wing of their party to pick up the hard-core conservative voters

• If he wasn’t interested he would have said so, instead of putting his fellow Democrats through all of this agita as they float names of candidates

• Being the mayor of Milwaukee while Scott Walker or Mark Neumann is governor of Wisconsin will be brutal

Then again, Barrett could decide not to run because:

• He may not be wild about conducting another statewide run

• A free ride in the primaries isn’t necessarily a good thing (just ask John McCain or Mark Green)

• Being supported by low-in-the-polls Doyle may not play well with voters

• Historically, Milwaukeeans don’t do well in statewide races

• Barrett’s antagonized his base in the city over the MPS takeover and other issues
  

• He’s a nice guy and therefore will get steamrolled by Republicans

So we'll know at 12:01 on Sunday if my prediction is right. But I think that Barrett’s going to jump in and become the hero of state Democrats in search of a serious candidate. If I’m wrong, then hello Kevin Conroy!