As the world is timidly reopening, some are taking the chance to look back and learn lessons from the past few months. Among them is the United Nations’ Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), which released research about the impact of COVID-19 on the drug supply chain.
“Measures implemented by governments to curb the COVID-19 pandemic have led to drug trafficking routes by air being disrupted, along with drastic reduction or increased interdiction in trafficking routes over land. Some drug supply chains have been interrupted and traffickers are looking for alternative routes, including maritime routes, depending on the types of drugs smuggled,” says the report.
Not all drugs were affected similarly. Methamphetamine tends to be trafficked by air, while cocaine is most often trafficked by sea, and both were deeply hurt by closed borders and reduced travel opportunities. Cannabis, however, is often produced on a local level and does not rely on long, international shipments, making it partly immune to the hurdles that other drugs face. The UN estimates that half of cannabis products are transported by land, the rest being transported by sea.
“Cannabis products are often produced and distributed locally via very short domestic supply chains. There are no indications that these supply chains have been drastically disrupted by the COVID-19 measures,” the report reads.
Another key element that allows COVID-19 to deeply unsettle drug markets is that it disrupts the supply chain for precursor chemicals. Cannabis being a plant, its cultivation and sale does not require the type of organization that opioids do.
Additionally, the lockdown greatly increased the demand for cannabis worldwide. This is a phenomenon that was observed in the United States as soon as the possibility of state-enforced confinement appeared. In mid-March, states with legal cannabis markets reported a 50% increase in cannabis sales, as customers were stockpiling it in prevision of long days at home. A study by American Marijuana found that about half of marijuana users stockpiled the substance ahead of the lockdown, while one-third of them admitted to consuming more marijuana during confinement than before. Many states allowed legal marijuana retail stores to remain open, even labeling them as essential services.
One consequence of COVID-19 was to increase the price of marijuana where it is illegal. France reported that the street price of marijuana doubled in the first few weeks of lockdown. In Spain, the prices tripled, El Pais reported. Belgium, the United Kingdom and other first-world nations report a similar phenomenon; even when the price of most drugs decreased because of coronavirus, the price of cannabis went against the grain and raised. The UNODC attributes this to the increase in demand for cannabis.
Rising Price of Pot
Even before COVID-19, marijuana had a unique position, as the world’s favorite illicit drug—a position not unlike that of alcohol during Prohibition. In 2018, 40% of all drug-related arrests in the U.S. were for marijuana (almost exclusively possession), a figure that dwarfs arrests for all other drug types. That same year, the Wisconsin Department of Justice reports 31,469 arrests on drug charges, 19,261 being for marijuana, a whole 61.1% of all drug arrests—and 55.4% were only for simple possession of marijuana. Even as other drugs are vanishing from street-level markets, marijuana seems to be expanding its already overwhelmingly dominant position.
The pandemic disrupted countless things, including several campaigns to legalize or decriminalize cannabis in several states. However, it also highlighted the stark differences that set marijuana apart from other drugs. Unlike heroin, cocaine and other such substances, cannabis is deeply interwoven in the fabric of modern society; it can grow anywhere like a weed, it does not rely on trafficking so much as short, local chains, and its use is boosted rather than impeded by a global crisis.
“In the long-run, the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to lead to a lasting and profound transformation of the drug markets,” the UNODC concludes. “Studies on the 2008 global financial crisis have shown changes in drug use patterns and the delivery of services. Similar trends may materialize from the economic downturn related to COVID-19.”
For reasons including decreased income levels in populations who were already susceptible to use drugs, restructured drug delivery models and availability, the post-coronavirus world is likely to have different drug habits than the one we collectively left behind. Experience from previous crises seems to indicate a probable shift towards cheaper drugs. While heroin use became more widespread after 2008, examples like Italy show that society can be steered towards using less heroin and cocaine and replacing them with cannabis.
Marijuana was proven time and time again to be harmless in most situations; it's impossible to overdose on it, it is not addictive, does not cause withdrawal symptoms and does not cause long-term harmful effects. The current crisis could impact the world’s drug habits for decades to come. By keeping a legal and regulated marijuana market, the U.S. could ensure that impoverished Americans have a cheap and harmless substance to turn to, rather than letting them fall prey to other, more dangerous drugs.
