Illustration by Tim Czerniakowski/Photo by wildpixel - Getty Images
Trump Illustration with Flag and Ballot Box - Election Denialism
On June 7, Wisconsin got a civics lesson courtesy of President Trump's appearance on “Meet the Press.” During a tense interview in Chippewa Falls, host Kristen Welker pressed Trump on his repeated claim that Wisconsin’s 2020 election was “rigged,” that California’s 2026 primary election is “rigged,” and that unless drastic action is taken, the 2026 November election will be “stolen.”
Trump claimed that Wisconsin's vote-by-mail system is typical of wide-spread fraud. When Welker asked for evidence, Trump said, “All I have to do is look.” What is there for all to see is the mirage/surge pattern that Wisconsin often produces in close elections: the Republican candidate is ahead during the first few hours after polls close but then a blue wave of votes reduces the early lead or perhaps is sufficient to reverse it for a Democratic win. Trump claims this pattern of vote count and reporting proves his assertion of fraud. But the order and timing in which ballots are counted and reported by the media are not evidence of fraud; they are the natural result of the system Wisconsin uses.
Maintaining the Integrity of Mail-in Balloting
To permit eligible people the convenience of mail-in voting while maintaining integrity and secrecy, Wisconsin uses a three-piece system: two envelopes and the ballot. The voter fills out the ballot and seals it in the smaller envelope. This “secrecy envelope” has no voter identifiers. The larger envelope is a postal system mailer addressed to election officials. The outside of that envelope displays a barcode with tracking number and space for the voter's name, address, signature, and a witness’ signature. The officials use that voter information to certify that the ballot was legally cast. Accordingly, the larger envelope is dubbed the “certification envelope.” In the final assembly of the mailing piece the sealed secrecy envelope containing the ballot is sealed inside the outer certification envelope, which is either mailed or placed in a drop-box to be delivered to the election clerk's office.
Counting the Votes
The envelopes arrive by the thousands at clerk offices where they await a time-consuming process of ballot tabulation. Before the seals are broken on the outer envelopes, each one must be certified by election officials who check the voter information to assure the legitimacy of the ballot inside. If the envelope is accepted, it is logged, opened, and the sealed secrecy envelope removed. At this point the two envelopes part ways. The certification envelope is placed in a lock box, available for inspection for 22 months before shredding. Separately, the secrecy envelopes pile up waiting to be opened, the ballot removed and fed into a scanner for tabulation. After tabulation, the ballots are retained for 22 months, available for recounts but not traceable back to the voters who cast them.
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So, Why the Mirage/Surge Pattern?
By itself this time-consuming verification/tabulation process does not explain the mirage/surge pattern that Trump asserts are evidence of fraud. That pattern is caused by the addition of a key rule governing the timing of the steps: Election workers cannot begin to process the outer certification envelopes until Election Day morning. While the final outcome is determined by counting all the votes, the intermediate vote counts are not in proportion to the final counts. Rural in-person ballots (red‑leaning) tend to be counted more quickly than urban in-person votes, which contributes to an early red lead. Meanwhile the urban absentee ballots are still being processed and counted overnight and into the following morning, which accounts for the blue surge.
How Florida Avoids the Mirage/Surge Pattern
The state of Florida uses the same two-envelope absentee ballot system but has demonstrated how to eliminate the mirage/surge dynamic. Recognizing that the root cause of the mirage/surge pattern is waiting until Election Day to begin the slow, labor‑intensive verification of the outer envelope, Florida allows election workers to begin several days before Election Day.The mail-in-ballots that arrive by Election Day are ready to be tabulated right along with the in-person ballots. The result? No mirage. No surge. No over-night reversal of early large leads.
The Civics Lesson:
To eliminate the mirage/surge pattern, Wisconsin lawmakers should support early processing of certification envelopes and do so in time for the general election in 2028. This change would provide voters and candidates more definitive election results during the evening after the polls close on Election Day rather than the following day and would deny election denialists one of their favorite false claims of fraud.
