Paul Ryan is a smiley, affable Midwest nice guy, but there is much behind the smile.
First of all to set the record straight, Ryan did not resign because he thought he would lose to any Democratic or Republican challenger. His prospects for re-election were excellent. Despite the fact that it may have ended up being the toughest race he has ever had, he would have won. He had the power of incumbency and as Speaker of the House, he had access to virtually unlimited money, which unfortunately plays too large a role in American politics. He also had a gerrymandered district that gives any Republican a comfortable edge.
Ryan left because he saw the polling and analysis and the high probability that the Republicans in the House would lose their majority. He would go from being Speaker, a position that would make him President of the United States if Trump has to resign and drags Pence along with him, to Minority Leader if his caucus continued to support him. So rather than fall from power, it was smart to leave now and spend time with his teenage children.
Ryan would have had no problem raising money for his race since he has taken very good care of special interest groups such as insurance and pharmaceutical companies. He was referred to as “their boy.” Also, like so many people caught up in Trump’s orbit, he has certainly damaged his reputation and it could only get worse. Ryan was forced to dance with Trump in hopes of getting his tax legislation passed, however the cost to his integrity was high. His popularity rating across the country was less than 25%. So between losing the majority and losing much of his reputation, he decided it was time to leave.
His record in congress was dubious at best. To his credit he was very clear and unabashedly honest about his agenda, which was cut taxes for the wealthy and cut safety net programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid for the rest of us. When Obama was elected in the midst of the worst economic downturn since the 1930s, Ryan was the “deficit hawk” opposing any kind of stimulus to get the economy on track as 90 plus percent of the professional economists believed was absolutely necessary. At that point the only thing that mattered for Ryan was not increasing the deficit and thereby the national debt. Less than 10 years later, deficits be damned as Ryan’s tax cut became the largest deficit increasing bill in U.S. history.
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The difference was simple for Ryan. Obama’s stimulus bill was trying to help unemployed Americans get employment again so they could pay their mortgages and not lose their homes. Government stimulating the economy during a downturn is the lesson every legitimate economist learned from the depression of the 1930s.
Ryan's tax cut bill, on the other hand, was passed when the economy was booming. It was not for economic stimulus actually and will probably result in increasing inflation. It was passed because Ryan saw his chance to give huge tax cuts to the very wealthy, which he did, and as he proudly pointed out, his tax bill would provide a secretary with a tax savings of $1.50 a week, which he pointed out could pay for most of her annual Costco membership. He failed to also mention that her meager tax cut would expire in 10 years and Congress will be saddled with taking money from education, health care and highways to pay the additional debt service on our growing national debt unless we raised taxes. Also as the national debt will be increasing by almost a trillion dollars a year, Republicans like Ryan will be arguing to that we need to cut Social Security and Medicare. Ryan was the consummate reverse Robin Hood.
So behind that smiley Midwest nice were some vicious, cruel, mean spirited policies that will continue to widen the gap between the rich and the average American and continue to make America a country with one of the most unequal distributions of wealth of any advanced industrial country in the world. So, Paul, we hope that you stick to your word that you are done with elective office.
