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Let’s be clear. The U.S. economy under President Biden isn’t just very good as this presidential election year begins. Biden is presiding over what economists from right to left are calling a booming economy on the verge of getting even better.
So why isn’t everybody talking about Biden’s continuously robust job creation accelerating through 2023 to wipe out fears of a recession with rapidly rising wages for American workers and inflation falling to nearly 2%, the Federal Reserve’s target range to finally begin cutting interest rates for consumers and business?
Economic competence is a crucial difference between the two candidates in a presidential rematch. Former President Trump’s incompetence and lies during the pandemic killed millions of Americans and crashed the U.S. economy killing 20 million jobs.
Frankly, it was like pulling teeth to get economists and the media to acknowledge Biden’s economic success throughout 2023 despite blockbuster monthly jobs reports. Every analysis warned Americans could still face a crippling recession from the Fed’s battle against inflation raising interest rates to 5.4%, the highest in 22 years. By the time that threat evaporated, it’s a wonder that economists and the media had any teeth left at all.
Understandable Reluctance
The reluctance of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s central bank to declare victory over inflation and start slashing interest rates is understandable.
When Trump’s Covid economy crashed in March 2020, Powell cut interest rates to near zero. The Fed kept them there throughout the first year of Biden’s economic rescue and recovery including the trillion-dollar bipartisan infrastructure plan that has fueled massive job growth ever since.
The Fed didn’t raise interest rates for the first time since the pandemic began until March 2022. By then, Powell faced severe criticism for not acting sooner to reduce the inevitable inflation when millions of Americans returned to work from the wreckage left behind by Trump’s presidency.
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The inflation peaked in June 2022 at 9% leading to the notorious $5 dollar gasoline with a huge assist from Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine that further disrupted the world economy and international supply chains.
Extraordinary Achievements
It took the 2023 annual report showing Biden’s bustling U.S. economy growing much faster than economists believed possible while avoiding a recession with a “soft landing” reducing inflation without massive job losses for economists to finally acknowledge the extraordinary achievement by Biden and the Fed.
“It’s just a perfect report: strong growth and low inflation,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, in January. He said the wheels of Biden’s successful economy—consumers, business and government—were now all moving in the same direction.
But how much longer will it be before the news media starts reporting all that good news about Biden’s economy—important information during a presidential election—openly and explicitly?
I’m not talking about Fox News and the rightwing media’s disinformation network. Most Americans know that’s a constant propaganda machine for the lies of Trump and Republican extremists. It exists to attack factual journalism as a liberal conspiracy.
I’m talking about print and broadcast journalism, the profession in which I’ve spent my entire working life. The good jobs reports are in the business pages of daily newspapers and in newscasts, but they’re not the top of the news.
Unprincipled Demagogues
The problem is most Americans don’t pay much attention to details about the U.S. economy anyway. They’re too busy worrying about its effect on their lives. That makes them easy prey for unprincipled rightwing demagogues. That’s proven by polls showing many Americans still think the economy was better under Trump than it is under Biden.
Biden and his supporters know that’s a lie and they’ll continue to spread the truth all year long especially in battleground states like Wisconsin. The best part is Biden’s surging economy will only become more obvious to the public the closer we get to the election.
While confirming all the good news about Biden’s economy in January, Powell warned consumers and businesses who were champing at the bit for the Fed to start cutting interest rates that it will not happen at this month’s meeting.
Testifying before Congress last week, Powell suggested the Fed's first of three expected interest rate cuts this year could be in June. That will begin to kick Biden’s booming economy up to the next level with multiple rate cuts for consumers and business before the end of the year.
It will have a profound effect on the election whenever it happens. In a perfect world, that also would be combined with a jury’s verdict in Jack Smith’s criminal prosecution of Trump for his violent insurrection to overthrow American democracy.
The U.S. economy recovered in record time. The U.S Supreme Court still has time to allow the trial court to do its job. Whether that happens or not, 2024 will be historic for our economy and our democracy.
