PHOTO CREDIT: KEITH ALLISON
Outfielder Avisail Garcia.
It hasn’t been the offseason some Brewers fans were hoping for, but it does look better in context.
The free agent market has been largely picked over at this point, with the Brewers opting to make a few smaller additions in lieu of a big splash: Outfielder Avisail Garcia, pitchers Josh Lindblom and Brett Anderson and infielder Eric Sogard will all likely get an opportunity to contribute to the 2020 club, but they’re unlikely to match the impact of free agents the Brewers lost, like Mike Moustakas or Yasmani Grandal. Only two of the four additions mentioned above made the MLB Trade Rumors’ list of the winter’s top 50 free agents: Garcia was ranked #29 and Lindblom was #42.
Brewers fans can take some consolation, however, in the realization that the organization’s rivals didn’t exactly run away with this offseason, either. Of the top 50 free agents mentioned above, 35 have signed with new teams, but just six joined a National League Central division team.
Cubs fans have been disappointed by the organization’s unwillingness to “go for it” for some time now, and this winter won’t do anything to change that concern. They haven’t signed a single free agent off the top 50 this season, and to date, the largest free agent contract they’ve handed out belongs to reliever Ryan Tepera, who will receive $900,000 in 2020. Despite their lack of additions, they’re already over the league’s luxury tax threshold for next season, and they don’t appear inclined to spend any more to improve on a team that disappointed with just 84 wins in 2019.
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The Cardinals have been more active, but only slightly. The only top 50 free agent they signed was one of their own, as they retained veteran pitcher Adam Wainwright on a one-year deal worth $5 million. The 14-year veteran is coming off a resurgent 2019 season but turned 38 in August and has only pitched two full seasons in five attempts since 2014. They also dipped into the international market to add Korean pitcher Kwang-hyun Kim, who was not included on the MLBTR list.
The division’s lone big spender this offseason has been the Reds, who opened up the checkbook to sign Mike Moustakas to a four-year, $64 million deal in early December. That deal by itself is worth more than the combined free agent contracts handed out by the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers. The Reds weren’t done there, however, as they gave $15 million over two seasons to another former Brewer, Wade Miley. Finally, they also looked to the international market for additional help, giving Japanese center fielder Shogo Akiyama a three-year deal last week.
Despite all their activity, however, the Reds still have some work to do to prove they are a serious threat to pass their more frugal rivals. They won just 75 games in 2019, and FanGraphs’ latest round of projections show them with 32.3 Wins Above Replacement as a team in 2020, which still has them fourth in the division behind the Cardinals (35.5), Brewers (36.2) and Cubs (39.9).
While the Reds have worked to climb out of the bottom of the Central, however, 2019’s last place finisher appears destined to remain there for 2020. The Pirates have made no notable additions to a team that went 69-93 in 2019 and hasn’t shown much to demonstrate change on the horizon. Sports Illustrated’s predictions for the next decade opened their entry on Pittsburgh with, “A lot can happen over the next 10 years, but sheesh, the Pirates are in bad shape.”
The Brewers may have missed out on an opportunity to make a big splash in free agency this winter but, somehow, they’ve still outspent all but one of their NL Central rivals. An offseason that many fans might identify as disappointing could still be enough to put them in position to lead this group again in 2020.
