PHOTO CREDIT: KIRSTEN SCHMITT/BREWERS
The final picture of the 2020 Milwaukee Brewers is still incomplete at this point, with questions looming on the infield corners, behind the plate and in the starting rotation. For some likely holdovers on the roster, however, early projections can start to clarify the most likely outcomes for the season ahead. FanGraphs already has one widely respected projection system updated for the year ahead: Steamer.
Those projections have some good news and bad news for Lorenzo Cain, who is likely to enter the season ahead as one of the Brewers’ biggest question marks. FanGraphs estimates Cain’s bat alone was worth nearly 25 extra runs in 2018, when he batted .308 with a .395 on-base percentage and .417 slugging but dropped all the way to -14 runs with a .260/.325/.372 mark in 2019. Steamer suggests he’ll be somewhere in the middle in 2020, rating as a roughly league average hitter, but even that modest improvement is enough to make him worth about 2.8 wins above replacement (WAR). He was worth 1.5 wins in 2019, largely due to his excellent defense.
The projections are less optimistic regarding Keston Hiura’s ability to turn his solid debut season into a similar performance on full-time duty. Hiura’s power blossomed across the AAA and MLB levels in 2019 as he slugged .681 in AAA and .570 in the majors with 19 homers at each level. Steamer projects his power will taper off a bit in 2020, with his slugging percentage falling to .495. Furthermore, they adjust his .402 batting average on balls in play down to .329 for 2020, causing his batting average to drop from .303 to .270. All told, the models have him with roughly the same value in full time duty in 2020 (2.4 WAR) as he showed in a partial season in 2019 (2.1).
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On the pitching side, the news is a little better for Brandon Woodruff. Despite pitching just 121 2/3 innings in 2019, FanGraphs estimated that Woodruff was worth 3.3 wins above replacement, tied for 30th best in all of baseball. Steamer suggests he can repeat that level of value in 2020 by pitching a full season, showing a climb to 183 innings across 31 starts. His rate stats are all projected to decline a bit under that workload (he allows about another third of a run per nine innings in this scenario while losing about six tenths of a strikeout and walking an extra half a batter), but he’d be just the third Brewer to work 180 innings in a season since 2014.
Speaking of workload increases, Steamer sees the Brewers’ current lack of pitching depth and projects Freddy Peralta could climb from 96 2/3 innings across three levels in 2019 to 164 as a Brewer in 2020. Like Woodruff, the projections have Peralta sacrificing some effectiveness with the increase in usage, but the Brewers would likely be thrilled if he makes 29 starts with his projected 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
Finally, one of next spring’s burning questions will likely be what to expect from Corey Knebel, a year removed from the Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2019 season. Knebel’s advanced metrics suggested a significantly better season than his final numbers indicated in 2018, but it’s tough to predict what to expect from the organization’s one-time closer until he returns to the mound. Steamer suggests he’ll pitch 30 times in 2020 and continue to strike out plenty of batters when he reaches the mound, but it shows him having a limited impact overall. Knebel was worth 2.8 WAR in 2017 and 1.0 in 2018, but he is projected for just 0.4 in 2020.
