Photo credit: Cole Vandermause
As the Brewers start the process of turning the calendar to 2021 this week, one thing is all but certain: The next Brewers team to take the field is likely to look significantly different from the one that was swept by the Dodgers last week.
For the second consecutive winter the Brewers are likely to see some widespread roster turnover. Last year, the 2019 Wild Card Game loss was the final Brewers appearance for seven of the 15 players who got into the contest: Yasmani Grandal, Trent Grisham, Mike Moustakas, Drew Pomeranz, Travis Shaw, Cory Spangenberg and Eric Thames. Several of those players leveraged their performances in Milwaukee to sign big free agent deals elsewhere: Grandal, Moustakas and Pomeranz combined to receive $171 million in free agency.
The 2020 Brewers, on the other hand, will likely experience a bevy of turnover for a different reason. While the 2019 team was commonly regarded as something of a success as they rode a hot finish into the postseason, the 2020 team can just as easily be viewed as a disappointment. Pitching carried the load for a Brewers team that finished in the top half of the National League in virtually every “run prevention” category but the offense took a big step backwards, ranking tenth or worse in the league in runs scored, hits, doubles, stolen bases, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging while leading the NL in strikeouts. While several of the players who departed following the 2019 season were celebrated contributors, this winter’s turnover could be driven at least in part by disappointment with the 2020 team’s performances.
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Entering this offseason the Brewers have just six players with guaranteed contracts for 2021: Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Avisail Garcia, Josh Lindblom, Brent Suter and Freddy Peralta. They also have just one player due to become a free agent: Brett Anderson will be free to test the waters again this winter if he so chooses after a season where he was serviceable when healthy for the Brewers in 2020.
Eight for Arbitration?
In the middle, meanwhile, they have decisions to make on virtually everyone else. They have eight players who are eligible for arbitration this winter and potentially a ninth in Ben Gamel, who has a club option for 2021 but also hasn’t accumulated enough service time to qualify for free agency. They’re also going to have to make several decisions regarding players on the fringe of the 40-man roster, as it’s currently full but they’ll need to make room for Lorenzo Cain and any potential additions.
There is plenty of room for improvement on this team, especially on the position player side. In 2020 the Brewers gave 1172 plate appearances to players Baseball Reference rated as below replacement level (negative Wins Above Replacement). That’s almost 54% of their season total. Three of the ten players in that group are already gone (Logan Morrison, Brock Holt and Justin Smoak), but seven remain in the organization and the Brewers are likely to stick with a few (Avisail Garcia, Keston Hiura and Ben Gamel) for another year.
Meanwhile, baseball economics will likely also play a role in efforts to construct the 2021 roster. MLB teams largely will not show their hands financially, but many are likely to cite the 2020 season and future uncertainty as reasons to pare back payroll and limit spending in free agency this winter. In addition to weighing down the free agent market this could also lead to a larger group of arbitration-eligible players getting non-tendered and joining a high supply, low demand free agent class.
For the teams that decide to spend this winter this could be excellent news: An array of talented players is likely to be available at somewhat depressed prices. Getting into that market, however, requires a commitment to attempting to win during a time when revenues will likely remain down. It’s unclear if the Brewers or many other teams will be willing to take that leap.
At any rate, the past few winters have shown clearly that the Brewers aren’t shy about shuffling their roster from season to season. This winter should be no different, even if the direction it will take is yet to be revealed.
