Photo Credit: Keith Allison
Blue Jays at Orioles 4/11/18
The Milwaukee Brewers appear poised to enter 2020 counting on a bounce back, but perhaps not the one fans might have expected a few months ago.
Over the weekend, they officially added former Blue Jays and Mariners first baseman Justin Smoak, who will receive at least $5 million on a one-year deal with a club option for 2021. Smoak is a 10-year major league veteran who the Brewers are counting on to regain the form he showed in 2017 and 2018. He was an All-Star for the only time in his career during the former season, when he set career bests with 151 hits, 38 home runs, a .270 batting average, .355 on-base percentage and .529 slugging.
Smoak followed up that breakout year with another nice campaign in 2018, when he hit .242/.350/.457 in the same three categories, but he fell back to Earth a bit in 2019 when he managed just a .208 batting average. He showed good plate discipline to boost his on-base percentage to .342, but overall his numbers looked a lot like his career line before 2017. From 2010 to 2016, Smoak was a career .223 hitter with a .308 on-base percentage in over 800 MLB games. According to FanGraphs, Smoak was worth 3.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in 2017 and 1.7 in 2018, but he hasn’t been worth more than 0.7 in any of his other eight MLB seasons.
The Brewers’ decision to rely on Smoak to regain his value is interesting, at least in part because of the internal rebound candidate they decided against. Less than a month ago, they opted to pass on Travis Shaw, deciding not to offer him arbitration and allowing him to become a free agent. At the time, MLB Trade Rumors had projected Shaw would receive a 2020 salary comparable to the $4.675 million he received in 2019. He agreed to a one-year deal with the Blue Jays on Sunday believed to be worth $4 million plus playing time incentives.
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Shaw’s first two seasons in Milwaukee look a lot like Smoak’s breakout run in Toronto. The local chapter of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America selected him as the Brewers’ Most Valuable Player and Top Newcomer in 2017 after a year where he appeared in 144 games and hit .273/.349/.513 with 31 home runs. His batting average fell a bit in 2018, but his other numbers remained steady in 2018 while he also showcased some defensive flexibility, moving to second base when the Brewers acquired Mike Moustakas. The Brewers appeared to have gotten a steal in the trade that brought Shaw and three prospects over from the Red Sox for reliever Tyler Thornburg, who missed all of 2017 and much of 2018 due to injury.
It’s worth noting that Shaw’s 2019 dropoff was steeper than Smoak’s. His final season in Milwaukee was a disaster that FanGraphs rated at -0.8 WAR over just 86 appearances. His peak was also higher, however: His two-year run from 2017-18 was valued at more than seven WAR, while Smoak’s was just over five. Shaw is also more than three years younger than Smoak, who turned 33 in January, and he’ll be under team control in Toronto through the 2021 season if he plays well enough to stick around.
As is often the case, factors beyond the baseball field could have played into this decision. It would certainly be understandable if Shaw wanted a fresh start elsewhere after a disastrous season in Milwaukee where the organization and fan base seemed to lose faith in him. Nonetheless, if Shaw bounces back in Toronto, it’s going to be hard for fans not to wonder what he could have done with the Brewers.
