Brewers vs. Braves in a History Making Game?

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Atlanta Braves insignia

Atlanta Braves insignia

There will be a rematch of last fall’s NLDS in Milwaukee this week, but only one of the two teams is where they expected to be.

The Brewers continue to stand alone atop the NL Central and have the National League’s second-best record at 22-13, but the Braves’ effort to repeat as World Series champions is off to a rough start. Atlanta’s loss to San Diego on Sunday dropped them to 16-19 on the season and cost them an opportunity to move into a tie for second place in the NL East.

Through the early going this season the Braves have struggled to recapture the magic that led them to a hot second half and postseason success a year ago. With that said, the Braves were also not a prototypical championship contender for most of 2021. They finished the season with the National League’s fifth best record at 88-73, a mark worse than two American League teams that missed the postseason entirely (the Blue Jays and Mariners). Their success last October was more of an example of how anything can happen in a month than proof that they were baseball’s best team.

So, when the Braves return to Milwaukee on Monday for the first time since Game 2 of the NLDS, they’ll make a bit of history: They’re only the fourth defending champion to bring a sub-.500 record into a series in Milwaukee in the last 25 years. Here are the others:

2007 Cardinals

The 2006 Cardinals had a few things in common with the 2021 Braves: They finished the regular season just 83-78, the National League’s fifth-highest win total, but made the playoffs anyway because they won a weak NL Central. They got hot at the right time and won 11 of 16 postseason games to unseat the Padres, Mets and Dodgers.

The next season, however, the bottom fell out. The Cardinals were 10-13 when they opened a series in Milwaukee on April 30 of that season, 55-60 when they returned on Aug. 14 and 73-82 on the first day of their final visit. They finished that season 78-84, their only losing season this century.

2004 Marlins

While a better regular season team than the 2021 Braves or 2007 Cardinals, the Marlins followed a similar path to glory: They were the National League’s fourth-best team during the season but upset the Giants, Cubs and Yankees to win their second World Series. Then, inexplicably, they cut payroll. The 2004 team had an Opening Day commitment of just over $42 million, down almost $3 million from what had already been a low-ranking expenditure the season before.

As such, when they arrived in Milwaukee for their first visit of the season on Aug. 13, 2004, the Marlins were just 56-57 and nine games back in the NL East. They missed the postseason that season and have only been back once in the 18 years since.

1998 Marlins

While the 2004 Marlins took a step back after their championship season, half a decade earlier that same franchise won a World Series, then stripped the club down to the studs. The 1997 Marlins won 92 games and won a championship as a Wild Card but started tearing down just a few weeks later. They dealt outfielders Moises Alou and Devon White, infielder Jeff Conine and closer Robb Nen within the first month after their win, setting the tone for an ugly year ahead.

When the 1998 Marlins came to Milwaukee in May they were already 17-35 on the season. Things got worse from there: They finished 54-108, the worst record by a defending World Series champion in over 70 years.

There is some better news for the Braves a little deeper back in history. Here are the defending champs who brought losing records to Milwaukee during the Brewers’ tenure in the American League:

• The 1997 Yankees were just 5-8 when they came to Milwaukee in April but righted the ship to finish 96-66 and made the postseason.
• The 1994 Blue Jays’ effort to win a third consecutive World Series had already come off the rails when they arrived in Milwaukee in late June, as they were 31-41 at the time of their visit and would be just 55-60 when the strike ended the season.
• The 1988 Twins were just 9-13 when they came to Milwaukee for the first time on May 2, but rebounded to finish 91-71, a better regular season record than they posted during their World Series-winning season the year before.
• The 1986 Royals struggled to gain traction in their bid to repeat as champs. They were 24-24 when they came to Milwaukee the first time that year and 55-66 the second time, when they came back in August. They finished 76-86 in the first season of a 27-year playoff drought.
• The 1978 Yankees lost their first series of the season and came to Milwaukee with a 1-2 record on April 11. The Brewers swept that series but the Yankees rebounded to win 100 games and a World Series anyway.
• The 1973 A’s were off to a 9-11 start when they came to Milwaukee for the first time on May 1, but they found their way to 94 regular season wins and a World Series repeat, their second of three in as many years.