Busy Month Ahead for the Brewers

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Photo Credit: SD Dirk/Flickr

There’s reason to believe the final month before the MLB trade deadline will be a busy one for the Brewers.

David Stearns and company were busy at the July 31 deadline last season, adding Joakim Soria, Mike Moustakas and Jonathan Schoop in separate deals, but they left some shopping to be done in August when Xavier Cedeno, Gio Gonzalez and Curtis Granderson joined the team on waiver trades. MLB’s roster rules have since changed to prohibit deals like the latter group, so this year the Brewers will have to make their final additions before the end of the month.

For fans looking to try their hand at crafting a possible deal in the next few weeks, there’s a new tool available: Baseball Trade Values (BTV) is a website developed by John Bitzer in an effort to estimate trade value for major and minor league players by using the precedent set by recent transactions around the game. Bitzer uses about a dozen factors for any given player to identify “surplus value,” or the benefit a team might receive if they acquire that player. From there, users can put together possible deals to provide even value to both sides.

The site is still relatively new but there are already dozens of pages of trades suggested by users, including a few examples of possible deals the Brewers might pursue this month:

Madison Bumgarner

The most famous name to move this month will almost certainly be Bumgarner, who is not that far removed from being one of the game’s marquee names. He was an All Star four consecutive seasons from 2013-'16 and posted consistently elite earned run averages while also proving to be one of the game’s most reliable workhorses.

At this point, however, Bumgarner might have more marquee value than actual value. He’s still only 29 years old but hasn’t pitched a full major league season since the aforementioned 2016 campaign. His 4.21 ERA in 2019 is almost a run higher than he’s ever posted previously, and it would almost certainly further climb if he traded his spacious home park in San Francisco for the comparatively small Miller Park. He also has the ability to block any trade to Milwaukee and will be a free agent following the season.

If the Brewers can convince Bumgarner to come to Milwaukee and are willing to bet on him to regain his old form in a pennant race, however, BTV’s values suggest a fair deal could be feasible. Bumgarner’s surplus value is lower than that offered, for example, by outfield prospect Corey Ray. A BTV user crafted a deal bringing the longtime ace to Milwaukee for infielders Mauricio Dubon and Lucas Erceg and pitcher Lun Zhao.

Matthew Boyd

While Bumgarner is likely to be the most famous name dealt this month, Boyd is likely to be the most valuable pitcher moved. He doesn’t have the national name recognition because he’s spent most of his MLB career with the also-ran Tigers, but Boyd has already pitched over 100 innings this season with a 3.72 ERA and leads all American League pitchers with 6.45 strikeouts per walk.

Boyd is only about a year younger than Bumgarner but has much less MLB service time, and an acquiring team could keep him around for the remainder of 2019 and three arbitration seasons before risking losing him via free agency. Given the years of team control, BTV estimates Boyd’s value is more than three times Bumgarner’s.

That hasn’t kept a lot of site users from trying to craft a deal to get Boyd onto their favorite team, however. Notable packages suggested to bring him to Milwaukee include:

• Orlando Arcia and minor league outfielder Tristen Lutz
• Lutz, minor league infielder Bryce Turang and pitcher Aaron Ashby
• Corbin Burnes, Lutz, Dubon and pitcher Trey Supak

Finally, BTV’s values confirm what many have suggested: While teams may ask for Keston Hiura in any major deal this summer, the Brewers would be wise to direct the conversation elsewhere. BTV assigns Hiura a median surplus value of 81.8, more than double Boyd’s and higher than anyone but Christian Yelich in the Brewers organization.