Photo Credit: Erik Eckel (Flickr CC)
Across multiple conversations with players at Brewers On Deck on Sunday, one topic came up frequently: The Brewers have a challenge ahead of them in the NL Central in 2019.
“It’s not going to be easy, I promise you that,” Lorenzo Cain told reporters. “I feel like everyone in the division…there’s no slouch, no walkover. A lot of great competition. The Cubs are the Cubs, the Cardinals are the Cardinals, the Reds have improved a lot and added pitching, and the Pirates are always a good team. It’s not going to be easy for us, but we’ll bring that attitude and that fight every day and be consistent throughout the entire season.”
The Central was the only division in baseball with four teams above .500 in 2018, with the 88-74 Cardinals and 82-79 Pirates following the Brewers and Cubs. Meanwhile, the Reds have taken steps forward this winter to try to join their competitors among the NL contenders. Perhaps most notably, they’ve taken major steps to overhaul a pitching staff that finished 14th in the National League in ERA in 2018 and 15th in 2017.
Names like Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, Sonny Gray and Odrisamer Despaigne may not jump off the page to casual observers, but it doesn’t take a lot to provide a major improvement over the Reds’ recent pitching staffs. That improvement could, in turn, make a noticeable impact on batting numbers around the NL Central. Divisional opponents each face the Reds around 20 times per season.
The Brewers faced the Reds 19 times in 2018 and averaged 5.1 runs in those contests, as compared to just under 4.7 against everyone else. Eight Brewers batted at least 40 times against the Reds in 2018 and, unsurprisingly, seven of them were better against the Reds than the Brewers’ remaining opponents. Here are some notable contrasts:
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Christian Yelich
Vs the Reds: 62 plate appearances, .482 batting average, .532 on-base, 1.018 slugging, 1.550 OPS
Vs everyone else: 589 PA, .309 average, .389 on-base, .552 slugging, .941 OPS
Without question, Christian Yelich was good against everyone in 2018. He might not have been the NL’s Most Valuable player, however, without the extra boost he got from massive games against the Reds. He went a combined 10-for-10 across his two cycles against Cincinnati in August and September.
Manny Pina
Vs the Reds: 40 plate appearances, .324 average, .400 on-base, .500 sluggling, .900 OPS
Vs everyone else: 297 PA, .243 average, .293 on-base, .382 slugging, .675 OPS
Pina figures to face the Reds (and everyone else) less often in 2019 with Yasmani Grandal in the lineup, but it’s worth noting just how much facing the Reds buoyed his offensive numbers. Those 40 plate appearances against the Reds represent more than 10% of his 2018 season.
Lorenzo Cain
Vs the Reds: 54 plate appearances, .326 average, .407 on-base, .500 slugging, .907 OPS
Vs everyone else: 566 PA, .306 average, .394 on-base, .410 slugging, .804 OPS
The split is less pronounced here, but Cain had four multi-hit games in 14 contests against Cincinnati in 2018, including a 3-for-6 outing batting in front of a 6-for-6 Christian Yelich on August 29. Cain’s .907 OPS against the Reds was his best against any divisional opponent.
Eric Thames
Vs the Reds (2017-18): 108 plate appearances, .287 average, .426 on-base, .782 slugging, 1.208 OPS
Vs everyone else: 721 PA, .231 average, .329 on-base, .466 slugging, .795 OPS
Stretching out the split over two years really shows just how much Thames has terrorized the Reds over two seasons in Milwaukee. Slightly less than a third of his 47 homers as a Brewer have come against Cincinnati, and his massive breakout to open the 2017 season was largely powered by a stretch where he took Reds pitchers deep seven times in a span of five contests.
None of the Reds’ pitching upgrades will change the fact that Great American Ball Park is a great place to hit home runs, of course. However, adding Gray, Roark and others to their pitching staff should hold opposing offenses down a bit and that could lead to some statistical adjustments for NL Central hitters.
