Photo via Milwaukee Brewers - mlb.com
Rhys Hoskins
Rhys Hoskins
The Brewers have come a long way in the last year to find themselves approaching the trade deadline in a very similar position to where they were at this time a year ago.
Sunday’s win to complete a two-game series sweep in Minnesota brought them to 57-42 on the season, two and a half games better than they were on the same date last year. They’re also leading the NL Central by a slightly wider margin than they were a year ago: Their loss on July 21, 2023 dropped their division lead to 1 ½ games and FanGraphs estimated their playoff odds at 72.4%. This year they’re five games up on the Cardinals and at 87.6%.
As they were last year, the Brewers are in a position where it makes sense for them to add talent at the trade deadline, although their need to spend the prospects to make a “big splash” is debatable. Their biggest area of need, however, might also be the same as it was in 2023.
Ten different players appeared in at least one game for the Brewers at first base last season, including incumbent starter Rowdy Tellez in addition to a collection of veterans the Brewers tried out at that spot. Collectively that group batted .231 with a .292 on-base and .389 at a typically offense-first position, and their .681 on-base plus slugging rated 28th among 30 MLB teams. Those numbers would have been much worse if they hadn’t added Carlos Santana and Mark Canha at the trade deadline, whose performance was much better than the Brewers’ team average in the 55 games they combined to play there.
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Rhys Hoskins and Jake Bauers
The Brewers almost certainly hoped they had solved that problem, at least temporarily, when they signed Rhys Hoskins to a two-year, $34 million contract in January. Hoskins was coming back from missing the entire 2023 season but had an .846 career on-base plus slugging across six seasons with the Phillies and seemed like a lock to upgrade the Brewers’ offense at the position. He missed three weeks in May with a hamstring strain, however, came back without a minor league rehab assignment and even after two hits on Sunday he’s still batting just .198 with a .270 on-base and .366 slugging since returning.
Furthermore, Hoskins has been the designated hitter in 27 of his 74 games as a Brewer, leaving first base open for someone else more often than not. Jake Bauers has played there in 51 games this season to lead all Brewers, and his .664 OPS there is below the production they got from that position when they were near the bottom of the league there last year. The Brewers’ additions at first base over the winter have made things marginally better: While FanGraphs had their first basemen as the 26th most valuable group in the sport in 2023, they’re 20th this season. They still grade out as almost exactly replacement level, however, and on the position player side first base remains the clearest opportunity to upgrade the lineup at the deadline.
It remains to be seen, however, which teams will be looking to sell as the deadline approaches and if any of them have help to offer. After Sunday’s games only two National League teams (the Rockies and Marlins) were more than five games out of the final Wild Card spot. The American League is a little more stratified, with the Tigers, Rangers, Blue Jays, Angels, Athletics and White Sox all at least six games out. Among the teams listed above, FanGraphs ranks the Brewers’ first base production ahead of the Tigers (21st), White Sox (25th), Marlins (27th), A’s (29th) and Rockies (30th). The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are unlikely to trade star first baseman Vlad Guerrero Jr., the Rangers are unlikely to move primary first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, a key contributor in their lineup under team control through 2026, and Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel would not be an upgrade for the Brewers. The Tigers do have Mark Canha, who provided a spark for the Brewers across 50 games last season, but he hasn’t been able to replicate that success in Detroit this season.
Despite experiencing a lot of turnover in the last 12 months, the Brewers enter the trade deadline as a likely contender again in 2024. The phone calls and texts they exchange with other teams in the week ahead might also look and sound a lot like the conversations they were having at this time last year.
