Photo by Matt Dirksen - Getty Images
Colin Rea
MESA, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 9: Ryan Brasier #54 of the Chicago Cubs works out during spring training at Sloan Park on February 9, 2025 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images)
The Milwaukee Brewers are two games into the 2025 Cactus League season after an opening weekend split where many of the team’s projected top regulars made their spring debuts. They still have another month before they head to New York to start playing games that count, but is there anything of value to be taken away from the results of these exhibition games?
At least anecdotally, there is some evidence to suggest that last year’s spring training results correlated with the outcomes that followed in the regular season. The twelve teams that went on to the MLB playoffs in 2024 had a combined 172-150 record during spring training games, the equivalent of an 86-win regular season pace. The three best teams by winning percentage last spring (the Orioles, Tigers and Dodgers) all went on to make the playoffs, while only one of the bottom seven (the Phillies) did.
On a larger level, there’s even more evidence to suggest that the spring training offensive environment is significantly more predictive of statistical trends across the sport. Even if large portions of those games are played by minor leaguers and others who won’t play a major role during the regular season, in 2019 Ben Lindbergh of The Ringer found a clear correlation between spring training and regular season numbers when it comes to numbers like walk and strikeout rates and even run scoring.
On an individual level, however, the samples are much smaller and there’s significantly less evidence that results in March are predictive of anything from April onward. While a player trying to “play their way on” to an Opening Day roster is a classic spring storyline, in the modern era it’s increasingly difficult to change a front office’s opinion in a few dozen spring plate appearances or a handful of innings against widely varying levels of competition. Last year we found that the Brewers who had the biggest springs in 2023 largely did not carry that momentum into the regular season.
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With that said, several of the spring’s top Brewers in 2024 did use their results in the desert as a launching pad to significant success during the regular season:
Willy Adames
Adames led the Brewers and tied for the Cactus League lead with six home runs in 2024, the most he had ever hit in a spring training season. After posting a .616 on-base plus slugging in his first spring as a Brewer and a .576 mark in 2023, Adames had a 1.178 mark in the desert in 2024 across 15 games and 45 plate appearances.
That momentum followed Adames to Milwaukee: He batted .270 with a .369 OBP and .441 slugging in March and April, which are all 45 points or more higher than his career marks for those months, setting the stage for a season where he improved on nearly every offensive number. Adames parlayed his big bounce back season into a seven-year, $182 million contract with the Giants this offseason.
Eric Haase
As noted above, it’s really hard to hit your way onto a team in spring training. Haase, however, might be the closest a Brewer came to doing so last season. He batted .395 with a .465 on-base and .868 slugging across 18 spring games and had five home runs, joining Adames as the only Brewers to score eleven runs. Up to the end of spring there was speculation that Haase might make the Opening Day roster as a third catcher.
Haase did not crack the Opening Day roster, but he did maintain his momentum in 41 AAA games and was recalled to the Brewers in July, where he reached base in each of his first eight games and connected for three home runs. Haase is the most likely candidate to serve as William Contreras’ primary backup this season.
Colin Rea
No Brewer saw more time on the mound last spring than Rea, who started five games and had a 3.44 ERA in a spring where the median MLB team was more than a run worse at 4.59. Rea limited baserunners, struck out 19 batters in 18 ⅓ innings and allowed opposing batters to hit just .206.
Rea went on to be one of the Brewers’ most reliable pitchers during the regular season as well, making 27 starts and three additional relief appearances as the “bulk guy” behind an opener. Rea was one of just 41 pitchers in the majors in 2024 to log at least 167 innings with a 98 or better ERA+.
Elvis Peguero
No Brewers pitcher appeared in more games last spring than Peguero, who made ten relief appearances and logged eleven innings but allowed just three runs for a 2.45 ERA and held opposing batters to a .175 average.
Peguero was also one of the Brewers’ busiest relievers early in the regular season, as he worked two shutout innings in two of the first four games of the season and the Brewers went on to win both by single runs; 2024 was the first time in his career Peguero finished a season with an ERA under 3 (2.98).
