For Brewers, All Runs Are Not Created Equal

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Milwaukee Brewers at Target Field - 6/22/2025

Milwaukee Brewers players at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota on June 22, 2025

The Milwaukee Brewers had a big weekend on offense, but fans who skipped the late innings of games might not have noticed. The Crew took a 1-0 lead into the sixth inning on Friday and a 4-0 lead into the eighth inning on Saturday before combining to score 21 runs in the final innings of those two games. Those 21 tack-on runs included all eight driven in by Christian Yelich on Friday, tying a franchise record.

All told the Brewers scored 35 runs across three games in Minnesota over the weekend, moving from 13th in the majors in runs scored to tenth in a span of three days. The way they piled on late in those games, however, continued another trend.

Across baseball in recent years an increasing percentage of each game is considered “low leverage,” events in the game where the outcome is unlikely to hang in the balance. Baseball Reference sorts plate appearances into three groups: high, medium and low leverage. Some low leverage plate appearances are inevitable in any game: The Brewers had two in the first inning on Opening Day, for example, when batters came to the plate with one and two outs and no one on base.

Competitive Factors

The total number of low leverage moments in a given game, however, is largely driven by how competitive that game ends up being. The Brewers had 47 low leverage plate appearances, for example, in a May 31 game against the Phillies where they scored four in the first inning and went on to win 17-7. Phillies position player Weston Wilson logged two innings pitched in that game.

If it seems like MLB games are somewhat less competitive in recent years, it’s because on average they have been. In 2024 just slightly under 45% of all MLB plate appearances qualified as low leverage, the highest rate in the majors this century. That rate is back down slightly in 2025 but not for the Brewers: All told, through Saturday’s game the Brewers had batted 1368 times in low leverage situations this season (47% of all plate appearances), the fourth most in the majors.

And, as it turns out, the Brewers have done some of their best work in those trips to the plate. As a team they have a .703 on-base plus slugging (OPS) in those opportunities, up from .692 overall. They’ve scored 128 low leverage runs, fifth most in the majors, and they’ve kept their foot on the gas on the basepath: They’ve attempted 37 steals in low leverage situations, the most of any MLB team. They’ve remained aggressive in situations where the game is less likely to be on the line.

Lesser Moments

Some of the Brewers’ top performers have really put some luster on their 2025 numbers with big performances in lesser moments:

• Eight of Christian Yelich’s 14 home runs fall under this category.
• Sal Frelick is batting .314 in these situations.
• Brice Turang has drawn 21 walks on his way to a .402 on-base percentage.

The problem for the Brewers, however, has been that the momentum they generate in those low leverage situations doesn’t seem to carry over to more competitive games. Through Saturday the Brewers had batted 502 times in situations Baseball Reference labeled as “high leverage” (about 17% of all PAs) and had an OPS of just .629 in those situations, over 70 points lower than their season average. Most MLB teams are worse in high leverage opportunities than overall: In situations where the game is on the line teams are more likely to deploy their best pitchers and play matchups in search of a game-changing advantage. The average MLB team sees their OPS dip by about 20 points in high leverage situations, however, so the Brewers are seeing a gap about three times larger than usual.

It’s worth noting that this is a significantly different outcome than what the Brewers experienced last season. In 2024 the Brewers were fourth in the majors with a .768 OPS in high leverage situations, 39 points better than their season average. Christian Yelich (1.178 OPS) and Jackson Chourio (.938) were among the top performers there, as was Jake Bauers (.989).

The concept of “clutch” is one of the most-debated topics in MLB history. While it’s possible there is some intangible difference that makes some players better in key moments late in games while others falter, it’s just as likely that luck, fatigue or some other factor complicates any effort to quantify it. Whether the Brewers’ leverage splits are a result of luck or a question of clutch, however, they’re likely to need better performance when it matters if they’re going to return to the postseason.