Has Freddy Peralta Turned a Corner?

×

Expand

Photo via Freddy Peralta - Instagram

Freddy Peralta

Freddy Peralta

Not much has been consistent across the Brewers’ first couple of weeks, but the ace of their starting rotation has been the exception.

Freddy Peralta was one of the top performers in the Brewers’ disastrous opening series in New York, allowing just two runs (a pair of solo home runs) across five innings on Opening Day. He turned it up another level against the Royals at home in his second start, however, allowing just one run on two hits across eight innings.

Peralta has a 2.08 ERA across those two outings with one walk and 16 strikeouts. Baseball Reference estimates he’s already been worth half a win above replacement in his two outings this season, nearly 20% of his total from all of last season. And, while National League pitchers entered Sunday having allowed 1.273 walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP) in 2025, Peralta is under half of that at 0.538.

It’s far too early in the 2025 season to start talking about “on pace” numbers or All Star or award consideration, but there are indications under the hood in Peralta’s peripheral numbers to suggest he might be taking a step forward this season. To start with the most obvious: He’s throwing harder. Peralta’s average fastball in his Opening Day start clocked in at 95.1 mph and in his home debut it was up to 95.3. Last season his average was almost a full tick lower at 94.3, and he had multiple outings where it dipped below 93. This is only the second time Peralta has been above 95 in back-to-back outings since 2019.

It would seem reasonable to believe that a pitcher might be stronger and able to hit higher velocities early in the season but that has not typically been the case for Peralta. These last two outings are only the third and fourth time among 27 career games in March and April where Peralta’s velocity has been above 95.

That uptick in velocity may not seem like a lot, but it’s at least a part of a significant improvement in the way Peralta’s arsenal grades out in advanced metrics. Stuff+, which evaluates pitchers based on pitch speed, velocity and movement (and which we discussed at greater length in February) rated Peralta’s fastball at 117 this season, where 100 is average. Peralta’s fastball graded out at 102 last season and has never been above 108.

Fastballs and Curveballs

Peralta’s fastball is not his only improved offering, however. His curveball, which has graded out below average since Stuff+ numbers start in 2020, is rated at an even 100 this season. His changeup, which had routinely been a below average to poor offering, is closing in on average at 93. The biggest improvement of any of his secondary offerings has been with his slider, which was a 102 score last season and is now at 116.

Meanwhile, Peralta has modified the way he uses his arsenal and it will be interesting to see if that continues through a larger sample of outings. For the last four seasons Peralta has thrown his slider the most of any of his secondary offerings, peaking at 26.5% of all pitches in 2021 and accounting for 21.6% in 2024. This season he’s thrown it just 7.4% of the time. He’s always thrown the pitch more often against right-handed batters and this season he’s faced an unusual number of lefties, but this is still a pretty significant downturn. Peralta has faced 22 right-handed batters this season and thrown just eleven sliders in those matchups. His curveball, which was virtually nonexistent last season, is seeing more use against righties now. He’s also throwing his changeup, which he has historically preferred to use against lefties, against more same-handed batters in 2025 than ever before.

Whether Peralta has turned a corner or is simply off to a hot start, the Brewers need him to retain this momentum. With Aaron Civale, Nestor Cortes, Brandon Woodruff, Jose Quintana, DL Hall and Aaron Ashby all on the shelf, their starting rotation has nearly completely turned over already in the season’s first ten games. If Peralta can maintain his strong start, however, at least one stable day out of every five will go a long way to keep the Brewers afloat.