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All signs point to offseason activity coming to a halt when the collective bargaining agreement expires in two weeks but, for now, Major League Baseball’s free agent market is open for business.
Many of the sport’s top available players likely won’t reach an agreement with a team between now and an anticipated lockout on Dec. 2, but not everyone opted to wait until the sport’s new framework was in place. Former Boston pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez made the biggest splash of the winter to date, signing a five-year, $77 million contract with the Tigers. The Brewers have reportedly also been active, as it’s been widely reported they agreed to terms with former Orioles’ catcher Pedro Severino on Sunday.
Severino fills a need for the Brewers, at least in part, because of the departure of a longtime fixture behind the plate in Milwaukee. Manny Piña, who had been the longest-tenured member of the Brewers roster, became a free agent for the first time in his career this offseason and quickly found a new home in Atlanta. Piña caught parts of 342 games during his time with the Brewers, the sixth-most in franchise history. Both the Brewers and Braves struck early to fill a need in a weak market for catchers: FanGraphs’ ranking of the winter’s top 50 free agents includes just one backstop, 34-year-old former Athletic and National Yan Gomes, and suggests even he is likely only a candidate to receive a one-year contract.
Trade Rumors
The FanGraphs rankings listed above don’t attempt to predict which teams will sign the free agents on their list, but not everyone resists the urge to speculate: This year’s MLB Trade Rumors top 50 list includes predictions from three different authors on the site. If their prognostications are correct, the Brewers will have a relatively quiet free agent season both before and after a possible work stoppage.
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The Brewers are not mentioned a single time in the discussion of that list until they come up as a possible fit for the 20th entry on the list, Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki. (Despite a looming lockout and potential transaction freeze that could complicate the process, Suzuki is expected to be posted on Monday.) None of MLBTR’s three analysts saw the Brewers as the most likely candidate to sign him, however.
All told, the Brewers are listed as an analyst’s preferred candidate to sign a player just three times, with one analyst each connecting them to former Mets outfielder Michael Conforto, Braves outfielder Jorge Soler and longtime slugger Nelson Cruz. Conforto is an interesting 1-for-1 option to replace fellow free agent Avisail Garcia. Conforto was a very productive and largely durable corner outfielder from 2017-20 in New York who might be hitting free agency at the worst possible time, pairing this offseason’s collection of unique challenges with a down year at the plate in 2021, where he slugged just .384 after posting a .495 mark over the last four seasons. Nonetheless, Conforto is still only 28 years old and recently turned down a one-year qualifying offer from the Mets, so all signs indicate he’s expecting a better offer.
New Bargaining Agreement
The other two candidates listed above, meanwhile, are likely contingent upon a new collective bargaining agreement including a switch to the National League rules to bring the designated hitter to that league for the first time. While both are significant offensive presences, Jorge Soler is a poor defensive outfielder that has been primarily used as a DH in recent years and Nelson Cruz, who is 41 years old, has made just nine appearances in the outfield across the last five seasons.
The Brewers’ available budget, meanwhile, may also depend on possible rule changes. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, the Brewers have 14 players who would have been eligible for arbitration this winter, the fifth-most of any team. The list of Brewers reaching arbitration for the first time (and thus expected to receive major pay increases this winter) includes Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer. Josh Hader is also currently projected to be eligible for the third time, and his 2022 salary is expected to exceed $10 million. As such, changes to the arbitration structure could have a major impact to the Brewers’ anticipated commitments and available resources.
For the teams that are willing to look past that uncertainty, however, the market is open and full of opportunities to improve their chances of winning in 2022. With a work stoppage looming, that could lead to more action than would typically have taken place during this holiday week.
