Just How Big of an Upgrade Would Eugenio Suarez Be?

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Eugenio Suarez

Eugenio Suarez

As the clock ticks down on the MLB trade deadline, the Brewers once again find themselves on the right side of the buyer/seller divide. Their hot month of July has come at a perfect time to clarify their potential role in this transaction window: On July 5 they were 49-40, on the periphery of the Wild Card race in the National League and FanGraphs had them at 55% odds to reach the postseason. With Sunday’s comeback win, they are 12-3 since and have firmly established themselves as contenders.

“It’s great for the fans to think about,” Brewers chairman and principal owner Mark Attanasio told FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin during Friday’s game. “For 21 seasons it’s always been the same thing. Doug Melvin used to say that the team will tell you what you need to do. And right now, the team is telling us pretty loudly that we should be trying to make it even better, but there’s really no holes.”

The “no holes” portion of that comment likely raised some eyebrows among viewers, as the numbers tell a different story. Entering play Monday the Brewers rank 22nd among MLB teams in Wins Above Replacement (per FanGraphs) at third base and 26th at shortstop. The left side of the infield has been a challenge for the Brewers all season, and as luck would have it one of the trade deadline’s most likely movers plays over there. Diamondbacks third baseman Eugenio Suarez is on an expiring contract, is one of the NL leaders in home runs (36) and slugging percentage (.584) and would seem to check several of the boxes on Brewers fans’ wish list.

Expiring Contract

Suarez’s expiring contract adds an interesting wrinkle to the discussion. While Suarez has inarguably been one of the NL’s most productive hitters this season, it’s unlikely that teams are going to offer any of the game’s top prospects in exchange for a player who they are unlikely to have on their roster for more than two months. In that same conversation on Friday Attanasio noted that many of the Brewers’ young stars (Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, Sal Frelick) were inquired about at past trade deadlines. While the Brewers will certainly have to give something to get something, acquiring a player in Suarez’s situation would certainly cost less than acquiring a similar player with multiple years of team control remaining.

The bigger challenge for a team looking to acquire Suarez might be determining just how much of an upgrade he’ll bring to a new team. Suarez is having a career year in Arizona. His 36 home runs are already the most he’s hit in a season since 2019 and his .904 on-base plus slugging is the first time he’s been over .800 since that season. Certainly, if he had been in the middle of the Brewers’ lineup from April to now their offensive numbers would look better. But that’s not a guarantee he’ll perform at that level in Milwaukee.

Suarez has resurrected his career over the last couple of seasons in Arizona, but before that he was a .221 hitter with a .314 on-base and .430 slugging across his last two seasons in Cincinnati and two in Seattle for a .744 OPS that was only slightly above league average. He’s a below average baserunner and plays third base but is not a strong defender there, so his value comes almost exclusively at the plate. Given his age (he’s 34) and up and down history, projection models aren’t sold he’ll maintain this level of production. The median of the eight models listed on his FanGraphs player page have him slugging .468 the rest of the way, over 100 points below his current .579.

Not So Bleak

Meanwhile, Attanasio made the case that the Brewers’ current situation at third base isn’t as bleak as the season-long numbers might indicate. Caleb Durbin came up to the plate and hit a double during Attanasio’s time on TV on Friday.

“The guy who just hit a double, according to Sports Illustrated he’s the best rookie in the National League, and that’s his spot. Now I understand what 35 home runs means, I get it, but there’s a lot that goes into the calculation,” Attanasio said.

While the Brewers’ season-long numbers at third base have been significantly below league average, a portion of those totals belong to Vinny Capra (who posted a .318 OPS in 13 early games there) and Oliver Dunn (.452 OPS in 12 games). An even larger chunk is covered by Durbin’s early stretch in the big leagues, where he had a .597 OPS across his first 43 games. Since June 7, however, Durbin is hitting .328 with a .409 on-base and .471 slugging, outperforming Suarez’s projected rest-of-season numbers. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Brewers are 25-13 in the 38 games Durbin has played over that time.

As is the case with several other contributors to the 2025 team, the Brewers have a tough decision to make evaluating where Durbin has figured something out or is simply hot right now. The way they perceive the value they’re getting from Durbin, however, might go a long way in determining whether they feel one of the trade deadline’s most obvious upgrade candidates is actually an upgrade for them at all.