Photo Credit: Keith Allison (Flickr CC)
A sudden turn in the Brewers’ offseason brought a new level of excitement to Brewers On Deck over the weekend as a jam-packed crowd gathered at the Wisconsin Center to meet, among others, returning hero Lorenzo Cain. Cain officially signed the largest free agent contract in franchise history late last week, a five-year, $80 million deal that will keep him in Milwaukee through 2022.
Cain is the likely Opening Day center fielder in a new-look outfield that the Brewers hope can further advance a rebuild that has been ahead of schedule for two years now. His track record of success suggests he can certainly help this team achieve their short-term goals but his new contract, to paraphrase Aaron Eckhart in The Dark Knight, may also ensure he gets to stick around long enough to see himself become the villain.
While he’s been a very good or great player for some time now, Cain will also be 32 years old in April. Much of his value is tied to his ability to be a very good defender in center field, and if those skills lose some of their sharpness over time the Brewers will have tough decisions to make with him. Cain has always been a good-but-not-great offensive player, so if his ability to run (and/or his already limited power) deteriorates he could quickly see his value diminish.
Dan Szymborski recently updated Cain’s ZiPS projections and they paint a both encouraging and discouraging picture of what the newest Brewer’s five years in Milwaukee could look like. They suggest Cain is likely to be an above average regular MLB player for three more seasons but that his playing time and production project to dip significantly as he reaches his mid-to-late 30’s. In April of 2021, when Cain is about to celebrate his 35th birthday, the Brewers will still owe him $33 million (plus $5 million in deferred salary). It’s unlikely fans will be as excited about his contract at that point as they are now.
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This is, ultimately, how free agency works: Teams get a player that can help them in the short term by agreeing to overpay them at the back end of their contracts, which likely coincide with the back end of their careers. For examples of what this looks like, just consider two of the previous holders of the most valuable free agent contracts in franchise history: Jeff Suppan and Matt Garza.
Suppan was the first significant free agent to join the Brewers in a long time when he signed a four-year, $42 million contract before the 2007 season, a deal worth more than the Brewers paid their entire MLB roster in 2005. He was the Brewers’ most durable starter in 2007 and played a significant role on the 2008 playoff team, but his tenure in Milwaukee is best remembered for what followed. He made 30 starts despite a 5.29 ERA in 2009 and was unceremoniously released in-season in 2010.
Friday was the fourth anniversary of Garza signing a four-year, $50 million contract with the Brewers prior to the 2014 season. Like Suppan, his deal paid early dividends as he posted a sub-4 ERA in his first season in Milwaukee and made 27 starts for a Brewers team that spent most of a season atop the National League Central. Also like Suppan, however, the bloom came off of the rose long before his time in Milwaukee was over. Garza had a 5.10 ERA over his final three seasons and missed significant time each year.
Free agent signings are almost always made for their short term benefit and Cain is no exception. He’ll cost the Brewers just $13 million in 2018 and is a big part of the reason projection systems are starting to list them as a serious candidate to dethrone the Cubs atop the NL Central. Hopefully fans will remember those contributions in a few years, however, when this deal might not look as favorable anymore.
