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Third Base and Left Field Line
Baseball, left field line, left field wall, left field foul pole, 3rd base line, third base, third base bag, no players appear in photo
One of the Brewers’ biggest offseason questions has been answered, but what it means for their defense and pitching staff is still an open question.
By most advanced metrics the Brewers were one of the game’s best defensive teams last season. They ranked fourth in all of baseball in Fielding Bible’s “Defensive Runs Saved” stat with 64 and sixth in FanGraphs’ estimated defensive value with 32. They had two players win a Gold Glove for the first time in franchise history and one of those players, second baseman Brice Turang, won the Platinum Glove as the most valuable defender in all of baseball.
One of the key pieces in the Brewers’ longstanding successful defense, however, is gone. Willy Adames was a solid to significantly above average defender throughout his Milwaukee tenure at one of the game’s most difficult positions, but now he’s playing shortstop for the Giants for the foreseeable future. The question of how the Brewers would replace him was one of their biggest winter storylines and the answer appears clear: During his annual session with reporters in February Mark Attanasio announced that Joey Ortiz was the heir apparent at the position and he’s played there more than anyone else this spring (although they’ve also gotten a long look at top prospect Cooper Pratt). Turang has also seen some limited reps at the position but appears to remain at second base for the time being.
Ortiz was primarily a shortstop in the minors. In fact, he had played just 20 professional games at third base before becoming a mainstay for the Brewers there in 2024. He’s played just 13 games at short at the MLB level, however, and that makes it somewhat difficult to predict how his defense will grade out in 2025. Baseball Savant, which uses MLB’s StatCast data, ranked Ortiz in the 96th percentile among MLB defenders in range in 2024 but in just the 45th percentile for arm strength. There are no less than eight prediction models for 2025 on Ortiz’s FanGraphs page and all of them have his projected defensive value below Adames’ typical marks, although some may have been constructed with the expectation he’d stay at third base.
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Who’s on Third?
Ortiz’s move from third to short leaves another question, however, and it’s one the Brewers have struggled to answer for a long time: Who will play third base? This spring the Brewers have taken long looks at a pair of young players there, Oliver Dunn and Caleb Durbin. Dunn made his MLB debut with the Brewers in 2024 and saw some limited playing time at third, but still has less than 100 games there combined between the majors and minors. Durbin is one of the players who came over in the Devin Williams trade and has yet to make his MLB debut, but he’s also played just 67 pro games at the hot corner and his MLB.com prospect scouting report cites his arm as being “a touch light.” If the Brewers decide to go by experience then the top candidate for the spot might be Vinny Capra, who has played over 150 games there in the minors but just six across three seasons in the majors.
The combination of Ortiz and the third base candidates’ experience level and scouting data suggests that at a bare minimum defense on the left side of the infield, one of the Brewers’ strongest assets in 2024, is not a lock to be an above average unit again in 2025. At best this is a group of players adjusting to new positions who also have very limited experience playing with each other. It certainly could work out, but it also might take some time to get there.
All of this might also shed some light on some of the Brewers’ other offseason decisions. If the Brewers are concerned about a possible step back in infield defense, then it makes more sense to let go of pitchers like Colin Rea and Bryse Wilson, a pair of pitchers with relatively low strikeout rates who were successful at least in part by letting opposing teams put the ball in play and watching their defense turn it into outs. That strategy might have been more likely to be successful with Ortiz at third and Adames at short than it projects to be with this particular group.
Certainly, the Brewers have overcome challenges like this before: As noted above, they got exceptional defensive production from Ortiz at third base last season despite the fact that he had almost no prior experience there. The path they’re taking forward is a risky one, however, and it would be a jarring change if the Brewers went from having one of the game’s best defensive infields to having weak spots in it.
