MLB Trade Deadline Creates Strength of Schedule Winners and Losers

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Photo via San Diego Padres - Facebook

Jake Cronenworth and Freddy Fermin - San Diego Padres

Freddy Fermin and Jake Cronenworth of the San Diego Padres high five during a game against the St. Louis Cardinals on Aug. 3, 2025

Doug Melvin spent most of two decades as the general manager of MLB teams but one of his lasting legacies is his opposition to a rule that was eventually changed after his tenure. Melvin was a frequent critic of baseball’s September roster rules, which at the time allowed teams to call up as many members of their 40-man roster as they wished for the season’s final month. The rule meant that teams often played stretch run games with an uneven number of players available if one club had more injuries or had opted not to call more players up. That rule was eventually changed in 2020.

Fast forward to today, however, and a different kind of roster inequity might also have an impact on the 2025 pennant race. This year’s before-and-after gap is built around last week’s trade deadline. As has been the case in most recent years nearly every team was active in the final days before the deadline but this year more than most the action was heavily focused on a small handful of organizations. As a result, teams playing the Twins (who traded away 11 players off their active roster) or Padres (who added six players) in August and September will be facing an extremely different team than they would have seen if scheduled to face them in April or May.

They are only estimates, but projection models provide a framework for attempting to quantify this impact. Between July 25 (the Friday before the trade deadline) and August 2 (when rosters had largely been updated to include trade acquisitions) 10 MLB teams saw their projected winning percentage for the rest of the season go up by 10 points or more, the equivalent of about a win and a half over a full season. Meanwhile, six teams saw their projected winning percentage go down by 10 points or more. More than half of all MLB teams got two or more wins better or worse at the deadline. Four teams, however, more than doubled that:

• The Padres were largely considered the deadline’s big winner and the projections reflect that, with them going from being a projected .501 team to .548.

• The Orioles may have sent away the most valuable collection of pieces at this deadline, making seven different trades. Their rest of season projected winning percentage dropped from .483 to .457.

• The Twins’ aforementioned fire sale dropped them from .522 to .498.

• The Diamondbacks sold one of their best starting pitchers, a top reliever and slugging third baseman Eugenio Suarez and dropped from .505 to .482.

Understated Impact?

For teams that sold it’s also possible this effect is understated because at least some of the impact will be concentrated in individual games: Teams scheduled to face the A’s the rest of the way, for example, would have faced veteran starter JP Sears every fifth day but will now likely face a replacement-level pitcher.

Even without taking that into consideration, however, these swings in teams’ competitiveness could have significant impacts on close races down the stretch. In addition to raising their own postseason odds with their additions, the Padres also slightly dampened the odds for their opponents. They still have series against the Brewers and Mets in September, face the Mariners and Red Sox in August and play the Dodgers six more times. Meanwhile, a few teams are likely salivating over their chance to face the depleted Diamondbacks, Twins and Orioles down the stretch.

This effect largely comes out in the wash given baseball’s long schedule and the relatively small changes involved. As of August 2, the end point of the sample above, 24 of MLB’s 30 teams had a rest-of-season strength of schedule between .508 and .490, meaning their average game the rest of the way was against a team with a true talent level between 79.3 and 82.3 wins. Within that relatively small window, however, a few contenders did see their fortunes change a bit:

• The Tigers were already the beneficiaries of a relatively weak AL Central and had the sport’s 24th ranked remaining schedule on July 25. With seven games left against the Twins, however, on August 2 their schedule was ranked 29th.

• The Padres already made themselves better at the deadline but got an added boost by the Giants and Diamondbacks selling off pieces. They went from having baseball’s 19th toughest remaining schedule to 25th.

• The news is also good for the Red Sox, the American League’s current top Wild Card team. They have two series remaining against the Orioles and have yet to play their entire season series against the Athletics. Their strength of schedule dropped from 8th to 13th in the aforementioned window.

• On the other end of the spectrum, however, we find the Brewers. Their remaining schedule includes 32 games against teams who got better during the deadline window. They were already scheduled to face the game’s 12th toughest schedule down the stretch but now it’s the eighth.

Strength of schedule, of course, doesn’t determine everything during an MLB season. Back in late May we noted that the Brewers faced an uphill climb to get back into the NL Central race because of the number of games they had remaining against contending teams, including all six of their meetings with the Dodgers. The Brewers won all six of those games against the Dodgers and are 41-16 since that day.

With that said, in a close race every little advantage or disadvantage can turn out to be important. In a season where a handful of teams made major additions and subtractions at the trade deadline these small schedule fluctuations could turn out to make a difference.