Photo Credit: Nathan Rupert (Flickr CC)
Paul Goldschmidt, who the St. Louis Cardinals traded for in late 2018
For the third consecutive year, the 2018 MLB postseason did not include the St. Louis Cardinals. For most organizations a three-year drought wouldn’t be that uncommon, but for one of baseball’s winningest franchises it was significant: This was only the second time they’ve missed the playoffs in three straight years since MLB realigned and added the Wild Card in 1994.
None of the last three years, however, have been particularly “down” years in St. Louis. They’ve won 88, 83 and 86 games in their most recent campaigns, respectively, continuing a run of 18 winning seasons in 19 attempts since 2000. They climbed back into contention after firing manager Mike Matheny in 2018, going 41-28 down the stretch under new manager Mike Shildt. They’ve never been that far away from the postseason picture and they appear poised to bridge that narrow gap in 2019, as they’ve made it clear this winter that they’re going for it.
They struck early and made one of the offseason’s biggest additions in December, trading three players and a Competitive Balance draft pick to the Diamondbacks for slugging first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt is a six-time All Star, has won three of the NL’s last four Silver Slugger Awards at first base and has finished in the top six in his league’s MVP voting in four of the last six seasons. It’s possible his stay in St. Louis will be brief, however, as he’s due to become a free agent following the season.
The price to acquire Goldschmidt for the relative short-term was high: In addition to a minor leaguer and the aforementioned draft pick, the Diamondbacks’ return in the deal included 25-year-old starting pitcher Luke Weaver and 24-year-old catcher Carson Kelly. Weaver is a former first round pick and was ranked as one of the top 100 prospects in baseball by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline before the 2017 season. Kelly is a former second round pick and a consensus top 100 prospect each of the last two years. Both players have already reached the majors but have several years of team control remaining: Weaver will not be eligible for free agency until the 2024 season and Kelly won’t get there until 2025.
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The Cardinals didn’t stop there, however: A few weeks later they signed veteran reliever Andrew Miller to a two-year deal with a club option for 2021. Miller is coming off an injury-shortened struggle of a season with Cleveland but from 2013-17 he was one of the game’s most valuable bullpen arms, posting a 1.82 ERA over 297 appearances and striking out 14.5 batters per nine innings. He’s perhaps best remembered for his work for Cleveland in the 2016 postseason, where he pitched in ten of their 15 games and allowed just three runs over 19 1/3 innings.
This pair of short-term acquisitions would imply that the Cardinals have a relatively short window to make a run at another World Series. Within the next two years they’ll need to find a way to re-sign or replace Goldschmidt, 2018 MVP candidate Matt Carpenter, outfielder Marcell Ozuna, catcher Yadier Molina and starting pitcher Miles Mikolas, who led the team in innings pitched (200 2/3) and ERA (2.83) in 2018. Behind that group is a less-than-stellar farm system: Entering the winter FanGraphs ranked the Cardinals 18th in projected value from their minor leaguers.
On the pitching side the Cardinals may have enough young talent to produce some staying power: They ranked sixth in the National League in ERA in 2018 (3.85) despite their average pitcher being just 26.4 years old, the second-youngest mark in all of baseball. Even without Weaver, at least three members of their likely Opening Day starting rotation (Jack Flaherty, Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha) will be in their age 27 season or younger.
Nonetheless, in a winter where most NL Central teams are positioning themselves to contend, the Cardinals have earned the right to consider themselves a favorite. Staying there beyond the next year or two, however, could be a major challenge.
