Owen Miller Defies the Odds

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During a month where the Brewers have struggled to find consistent offensive production, one of their top performers has been an unlikely candidate.

Owen Miller was a one-time high draft pick and top prospect but he’s been traded twice and struggled in his first tastes of the majors, batting just .231 with a .283 on-base and .338 slugging in 190 games across two seasons with Cleveland. The Brewers acquired him over the winter for a player to be named later and it took him a bit to distinguish himself with his new club.

In May, however, Miller has been the Brewers’ top offensive contributor. He’s played in 21 games, including 19 starts and batted .366 with a .403 on-base and .620 slugging. Ten of his 26 hits have gone for extra bases and only Christian Yelich (in significantly more playing time) has scored more runs. After an opening month where Miller seemed like a candidate to fall off the roster, he’s become difficult to keep out of the lineup. In May he’s started eleven games in either the first, second or fourth spot in the lineup.

Miller is experiencing a lot of success, however, despite peripheral numbers that suggest he should not. He’s batting .366 on balls put in play this season, compared to the MLB average of .297. He’s also hitting .302 on ground balls, compared to an MLB average of .241. 

Balls in Play

Miller has above average speed, which will make him a little more likely to collect extra hits on balls put in play. Sometimes players will also experience a higher-than-average success rate on balls in play because they hit the ball hard, however, and that’s not the case with Miller. Baseball Savant, which collects MLB’s Statcast data, ranks Miller in the second percentile in all of baseball in average exit velocity, in the tenth percentile in hard hit percentage and in the 34th percentile in “barrel” percentage. He has good strike zone judgement and makes the most of it, but he’s been making a lot of soft contact and being rewarded for it. Here are the initial landing spots of his 25 balls in play that have turned into singles:

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This data suggests that the 2023 rule change banning defensive shifts might be helping Miller a bit. While playing three defenders on the left side of the infield against right-handed batters appeared to be counterproductive in most cases, having an extra defender over there against Miller likely would’ve turned a significant number of those orange dots into outs. Even without a third infielder over there, however, teams are likely to adjust their defensive positioning against Miller in response to his batted ball profile.

FanGraphs’ data tells a similar story on Miller and his success against expectations. He has a .380 weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) but expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), a statistic designed to predict a player’s success based on their batted ball profile, has him at .311. That .380 wOBA is one point better than Angels’ outfielder and perennial MVP candidate Mike Trout, for comparison purposes. The .311 xwOBA, however, is eight points below the MLB average.

All of this creates a challenge for the Brewers as they determine what to do with Miller going forward. There’s likely to be a crunch for playing time in the infield in the weeks ahead as Luis Urías nears a return from injury.  Urías primarily plays second and third base, positions where Miller has gotten most of his playing time. Given Miller’s productivity and local popularity, however, it might be difficult to keep him out of the lineup.