Photo by Keith Allison
Major League Baseballs - 2015
Phillies at Orioles 6/16/15
While a dark cloud looms on the horizon over Major League Baseball’s offseason there might also be an opportunity for teams and players alike to mitigate its impact.
Business is proceeding as usual for the 2025-26 offseason, but many have turned a concerned eye to next winter: The league’s collective bargaining agreement with the players union expires following the 2026 World Series and both sides appear to be preparing for the discussions to be painful. The owners, who also locked the players out and delayed the eventual beginning of the regular season when the last CBA expired in 2022, have repeatedly raised the possibility of another lockout, perhaps one that might linger into or even through the 2027 season. Last week Evan Drellich of The Athletic examined the seemingly discordant note of a league that is regularly trumpeting its successes heading down this path.
It has yet to become a widespread phenomenon but some recent long-term contracts in the sport seem to be braced against the possibility of a work stoppage. Diamondbacks infielder Ketel Marte signed a six-year contract extension in April that was worth $14 million in 2025 and $15 million in 2026 but dips to $12 million in 2027 before bouncing back up to $20 million in 2028. Pitcher Nick Pivetta, who signed a four-year deal with the Padres as a free agent in February, also has higher salaries for 2026 and 2028 than 2027.
Guaranteed Contracts
Here’s why they’re doing it: Baseball is one of the only major sports where contracts are considered guaranteed, but that guarantee carries an asterisk during times of labor strife. Marte, Pivetta and the other players under contract for 2027 will not receive their “guaranteed” salaries if a work stoppage cancels some or all of the games. They’ll receive a pro-rated portion if a partial season is played or, in the event of a cancelled season, nothing at all. By agreeing to a lower 2027 salary in exchange for more money before or after they’re hedging their risk a bit.
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Some players, however, will still receive some portion of their contracts no matter what happens. One of the most prominent examples of this is Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who signed a $500 million contract in April with a $325 million deferred signing bonus to be paid out over 14 years. While player salaries are only guaranteed if the sport continues to operate as usual, signing bonuses are not contingent on performance of services and are truly guaranteed. As such, Guerrero will make at least $14 million in 2027 whether games are played or not.
The potential of missed time during the 2027 season is casting a shadow over this offseason but it’s almost certain to loom even more noticeably over next winter’s free agent market. The last time MLB had an offseason work stoppage the free agent market was largely unresolved until the new CBA was in place in mid-March, leaving players just a few weeks to scramble to find jobs before Opening Day. Former Cubs infielder and NL MVP Kris Bryant has publicly stated that the pressure to sign quickly was a factor in his decision to take an ill-fated contract with the Rockies in 2022. With the possibility of labor strife hanging over next offseason, it’s something pending free agents need to be aware of.
Pending Free Agent
As it turns out, the Brewers have one of the most prominent of those pending free agents in starting pitcher and ace Freddy Peralta. Peralta is scheduled to make $8 million this season in the seventh and final year of the five-year, $15.5 million contract with a pair of club options he signed before the 2020 season. He’s also coming off his second All Star season and received Cy Young votes for the first time in his career in 2025. Under normal circumstances he’d be a near-lock to get a major raise and be able to pick his landing spot as a free agent next winter, but the possibility of normal circumstances is, at best, not a certainty. It’s possible the Brewers and other teams with players in similar circumstances will find themselves with an opportunity to help both themselves and their star players: A long term deal with a deferred signing bonus at a somewhat discounted rate would ensure the team retains their star player and said star player is guaranteed some level of financial security even if a new CBA isn’t quickly resolved.
Similarly, the Brewers have a significant crop of young players who have yet to reach their first major MLB payday. Among others, the group of Caleb Durbin, Isaac Collins, Jacob Misiorowski, Sal Frelick, Blake Perkins, Quinn Priester and Abner Uribe all played for something near the MLB minimum salary in 2025 (or a pro-rated share for a partial season in the majors) and project to receive a similar amount for 2026. Players like this are the hardest hit during a work stoppage as they haven’t been in the majors long enough to earn “set for life” money and will go unpaid until the matter is resolved. As such, they have more incentive than usual to consider a long-term contract offer in advance of a possible issue to ensure their income over the years to come.
As noted in the Drellich article linked above, everyone seems to agree that MLB is thriving and the best-case scenario for all involved would be for the teams and players to find a way to agree on an equitable distribution of that success without any loss of games. In the meantime, however, the risk of missed action in 2027 changes the incentives for both teams and players this offseason.
