Setting Expectations for the 2023 Brewers

×

Expand

Photo: Christian Yelich - Instagram

Christian Yelich

Christian Yelich

With Opening Day just a few days away, it’s time to make some predictions about the 2023 Milwaukee Brewers. For the sixth consecutive year I’ll do that with help from BetOnline, who has published a list of eleven proposition bets for the season ahead.

2022 was the most successful season ever for my predictions, as I was correct on 14 of the 18 questions. This snapped a rough streak, as I was 7-8 in both 2021 and 2020 after going 12-6 in 2019. As is often the case, some of last year’s lines were impressively close to reality: Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes’ over/under lines were both set at 12.5 wins, for example, a mark Woodruff cleared by half a win and Burnes missed by the same margin.

So, let’s give this another shot. This season there are eleven over/unders to consider featuring seven Brewers, four position players and three pitchers. Last season the Brewers selected reached the over on just six of the 18 propositions. Let’s see what they have in store this year:

Christian Yelich: 17 home runs

It might be possible to tell the story of Christian Yelich’s recent seasons just through his prop bets over time. In 2021 this same outlet posted an over/under of 34.5 home runs for Yelich, and he finished the season with nine. They downgraded him to 23.5 for 2022 but he still did not reach that bar, collecting just 14.Yelich can still be a very productive offensive player with limited power numbers: Even in his “down” seasons over the last three years he’s posted a .745 on-base plus slugging, which is only slightly below the mark Willy Adames posted (.756) on his way to being the Brewers’ team MVP last season. Assuming he plays somewhat regularly, 17 home runs seems to be a low target. I’ll take the over.

Willy Adames: 27.5 home runs, 87.5 RBI

Adames set career highs in both of these categories last year, collecting 31 home runs and 98 runs batted in. The home runs overshadowed a different challenge in his game, however: Adames’ on-base percentage was just .298 last season, the lowest mark of his five-year MLB career. He traded some contact and plate discipline for power, and he’s likely to continue to do so. 

One of the underlying questions in many of these guesses is playing time, but with Adames it’s a non-issue. Assuming he’s healthy and his production doesn’t crater for some reason, he’s a near-lock to play shortstop almost every day for the 2023 Brewers and his power likely keeps him near the middle of the lineup. Nonetheless, getting to 28 home runs would require him to hit them at a faster pace than he has over the rest of his career. I’ll take the under on home runs, but I do think he’ll get enough opportunities to clear the over on RBI.

William Contreras: 20.5 home runs

The line for the new Brewers catcher is almost exactly where he set it a year ago: He hit 20 home runs in his breakout season for Atlanta in 2022 and did it in just 97 games. What’s more, he did it at a steady pace throughout the year: He hit five in May, four in July, four in August and three in September.

There are two lingering questions about Contreras’ ability to repeat that production, however. The first is the possibility that pitchers will adjust to him. Contreras crushed fastballs in 2022 but was not great against sliders. Pitchers threw him sliders 30% of the time last season, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they throw them even more this year as scouting reports on him get around. The second question is playing time: The Brewers obviously like Contreras but they also like Victor Caratini, who caught more games than any other Brewer in 2022. Between those two questions, I’ll take the under.

Rowdy Tellez: 28.5 home runs, 82.5 RBI

Tellez set career highs in these and several other offensive categories in 2022, when he hit 35 home runs and drove in 89 runs. He was able to reach those high numbers at least in part because he was almost always in the lineup: He played in 153 games and had the third most plate appearances of any Brewer. He even batted 134 times against lefties, despite not performing that well against them.

The Brewers have a lot of first base/designated hitter options this season but, unless Luke Voit’s saga ends with his addition to the roster, nearly all of them bat left handed.  Tellez seems likely to get into the lineup a lot once again and, if that’s the case, then the over on both of these is reachable.

Brandon Woodruff: 12.5 wins, 195.5 strikeouts

Corbin Burnes: 12.5 wins, 229.5 strikeouts

I’ll take these two together, because they’re related. The win totals for both pitchers are the same as last year and, as I noted above, Woodruff cleared that bar by half a win and Burnes missed it by the same margin. In past years I’ve taken the under on lines like this and noted that the Brewers had a tendency to pull starters early and cost them a few wins. It’s worth noting that that’s no longer the case for Burnes, who averaged more than six innings per start in 2022, and Woodruff has been right around that mark each of the last two years also. The Brewers may be well served to let both work a little deeper into games in 2023, so I’ll take the over on both. 

Meanwhile, the strikeouts for both are the easiest decisions on this list. Burnes cleared a similar bar last season and Woodruff would have also if he’d been able to make 30 starts. With the shift ban this season there’s an even greater incentive for both of these guys to strike opposing batters out, and I think they’ll both hit the over.

Freddy Peralta: Eight wins

Peralta might be one of the biggest unknowns for the 2023 Brewers, and the variance in his possible outcomes might go a long way towards determining what kind of season they have. He could be in line for a big, dominant year where he joins Woodruff and Burnes in the upper echelon of pitchers and gives this team a terrifying trio of starters in the postseason. He could also stumble or be limited after a season where he pitched just 78 innings and never threw more than 55 pitches in a game in September.

To get a win as a starting pitcher Peralta has to pitch at least five innings, which is something he only did nine times all of last year. He could be very good and a big part of the Brewers’ success this year while still coming in under this mark.