Strong Defense Puts Brewers in Position to Buy Low

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Photo via Sal Frelick - Instagram

Sal Frelick

Sal Frelick

As the trade deadline approaches the Brewers once again find themselves in position to add, but they might also be in position to reap dividends by buying low.

The Brewers have added bullpen pieces at the deadline with regularity in recent years, as a team in contention can never have too much pitching depth. They’re already positioned to collect reinforcements in the weeks ahead, as Brandon Woodruff made his first of three to five scheduled rehab starts on Saturday and reliever Justin Wilson, signed this spring while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, has made nine appearances out of the bullpen across two affiliates.

Nonetheless, the Brewers are likely to scour the market in advance of the August 1 trade deadline, and as they do they might have an advantage: They’re positioned to get increased value out of pitchers that other teams might not. 

Defensive Metrics

Pitching has been a strength for the Brewers this season, but their results have come in a different way from most teams in this era: While high strikeout rates remain the norm across the league, the Brewers are a little behind the curve at 8.5 of them per nine innings. Instead of relying on throwing the ball past opposing batters, the Brewers are more likely to allow balls in play and capitalize on their excellent defense. 

Back in late June Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs curated several defensive metrics to find that the Brewers were the sport’s best defensive team, and the gap between their perch at the top and the group outside the top five was significant. The trend has not changed since then: After Saturday’s games Baseball Info Solutions’ Defensive Runs Saved stat (tracked at Baseball Reference) suggests the Brewers have been 33 runs better than the average team defensively this season. That’s nine runs better than any other National League team. Two of the other teams in the top four, the Diamondbacks and Braves, have been among the NL’s top teams this season.

One of the primary sources of defensive value for the Brewers has been something of a surprise: Their uncanny ability to improve catcher defense continued on in 2023 to William Contreras, who FanGraphs says has saved over 15 runs with his defense and pitch framing this season. They’re also very good up the middle with Willy Adames at short and Brice Turang or Owen Miller at second, however, and Blake Perkins and Joey Wiemer have also graded out as exceptionally good defenders in the outfield. That last group likely continues to improve with Sal Frelick, a natural center fielder, in the lineup more often going forward.

Looking for Mr. Reliable

In the weeks ahead this leaves the Brewers well positioned to take on a pitcher that might not be a fit for everyone, or one that isn’t necessarily dominating with their current club. A poor defensive team might need to acquire a high strikeout, flame throwing hurler to see an improvement in their contending status, but the Brewers are the opposite: A pitcher who reliably throws strikes and puts balls in play would be in position to experience more success with this team than they might elsewhere.

While the Brewers are unlikely to pull off an in-division trade like this, former Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty is an example of a pitcher that might look better in Milwaukee right now than with his current club. Flaherty has allowed opposing batters to hit .343 on balls in play against him, more than 30 points higher than the league average. Similarly, Lance Lynn of the White Sox has given up a .322 BABIP. Some of this is probably luck and small sample size, but these pitchers have both almost certainly been hurt by playing in front of poor defenses. Opposing batters have hit .288 on balls in play against the Brewers this season.

As is often the case, the Brewers are unlikely to emerge as the trade deadline’s “big winner” in the weeks ahead by pulling down a star like Angels phenom Shohei Ohtani or any of the other big ticket available players. But they might also be positioned to gain ground with moves that will fly under the radar or even look underwhelming at the time.