Acquiring reliever Alex Claudio wasn’t enough to make the 2018 Winter Meetings all that memorable or notable for the Brewers, but it’s an interesting transaction nonetheless.
Just a few weeks after opting not to retain incumbent bullpen lefties Dan Jennings and Xavier Cedeno, the Brewers acquired a new southpaw in Claudio. Claudio gives the Brewers an experienced, but relatively young, bullpen option: He’s already made 208 MLB appearances, but won’t turn 27 until January. He’s about five years younger than Jennings and Cedeno, but he’s at a similar spot in the team control process, being eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter and under team control through 2021. MLB Trade Rumors projects he’ll receive around $1.3 million in 2019.
Claudio had experienced a fair amount of MLB success until recently, posting a sub-3.00 ERA in every MLB season until 2018. He’s done that, however, despite a very low strikeout rate: He struck out just 5.4 batters per nine innings in 2018, down only slightly from a 6.2 per nine career mark. Claudio’s fastball tops out well below 90 mph and he largely gets hitters out based on a deceptive delivery.
Historically Claudio has not been used as a lefty specialist, but his splits suggest he could be. Same-handed batters have hit just .190 with a .220 on-base percentage and .278 slugging over the course of his career.
Whether the Brewers opt to use Claudio as a situational lefty or a middle reliever (and he’s unlikely to advance past the “middle relief” role in a bullpen that already includes Corey Knebel, Josh Hader and Jeremy Jeffress, among others), the price they were willing to pay for him is pretty steep. The Brewers gave up their recently acquired 2019 Competitive Balance Round draft pick, projected to be the #40 overall selection in next June’s draft.
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Trading draft picks is a very rare event in baseball, largely because it’s not allowed in most cases. Competitive Balance picks, which are awarded to teams in MLB’s smallest markets, are the only picks that can be dealt. Three of the 14 tradeable picks have already been moved this winter: The Cardinals sent theirs to Arizona in the Paul Goldschmidt deal and the Mariners acquired one from Cleveland along with first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion.
For the Brewers, giving up the pick has a twofold impact. First of all, it eliminates their ability to add one more high selection to their organization this summer. They’re in position to clearly understand what they’re forfeiting here: Two years ago they used a pick in the same Competitive Balance round to draft outfielder Tristen Lutz. Lutz is coming off a solid age 19 season with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers and this winter he’ll likely be a consensus pick as one of the top ten prospects in the Brewers’ organization.
Trading away the competitive balance pick, however, also means the Brewers are forfeiting a significant amount of money and flexibility from their draft bonus pool. Teams can use extra bonus money to go “over-slot” and convince valuable but difficult to sign draft picks to join the organization, and the Brewers have experienced success at times in recent years by doing so. When they traded the pick they also traded its slot value, and they now project to have around $2 million less available to spend on draft picks in 2019. This could significantly impact their ability to add high-upside but difficult-to-sign talent.
Clearly the Brewers see a lot of potential value in Alex Claudio, a young, productive lefty that could be useful in a variety of roles in their bullpen over the next few seasons, and in every trade it’s true that you have to give something to get something. In this case, however, the Brewers have taken a pretty significant bite out of their future to add a player that doesn’t project to be much more than a middle inning option.
