Photo via Milwaukee Brewers - Facebook
Aaron Ashby
It’s hard to imagine a more emphatic start to the MLB postseason than what the Brewers did on Saturday. Showing no rust from a week-long layoff, they pounced on the Cubs with nine runs in the first two innings to quickly put their opening game in the NLDS out of reach. But just how much does this mean for their chances of advancing?
As a franchise the Brewers have a relatively small postseason history to reflect upon, but their biggest postseason moments have largely defied conventional theory about the importance of winning Game 1 of a series. The 1982 team clinched the pennant in the ALCS after losing not just one, but the first two games in a best of five series against the Angels. That team then went on to blow out the Cardinals 10-0 in the opening game of the World Series but lose the series anyway.
All told, the Brewers are 7-6 in franchise history in the first game of a postseason series (not counting the 2019 Wild Card game, which was a winner-take-all game and not a series). On four previous occasions they won the first game but went on to lose the series, and in the aforementioned 1982 ALCS they lost the first game but advanced anyway. In 12 previous instances the team winning the first game of a Brewers postseason series advanced 58% of the time.
Of course, MLB history offers a much larger sample size to refine and consider. Before this season MLB teams had played a total 156 best-of-five postseason series, including 126 Division Series (a round which only existed in 1981 and from 1995 to present) and 30 League Championship Series from when that series was only a best of five from 1969-84. Across that span the teams that win the first game have won the series 72.4% of the time, as noted in this MLB.com piece from Saturday.
Stay on top of the news of the day
Subscribe to our free, daily e-newsletter to get Milwaukee's latest local news, restaurants, music, arts and entertainment and events delivered right to your inbox every weekday, plus a bonus Week in Review email on Saturdays.
Best of Five
With a sample size this large, however, it’s possible to refine it a step further. While best of five series have existed through much of recent MLB history, they haven’t always been played in the current format. From their inception through 1997 MLB’s five-game postseason series were all played under a 2-3 format, which reduced travel and the need for off days by having the lower seeded team host the first two games and the higher seed host the final three. That format was scrapped in 1998 in favor of a 2-2-1 plan which ensured the team with home field advantage would get at least two home games and, if necessary, would host the winner-take-all Game 5 as well. Since that change, teams with home field advantage to win the first game have advanced over 74% of the time.
One of the game’s most respected projection models, however, is slightly less optimistic about the Brewers’ chances of continuing this trend. FanGraphs’ postseason odds actually had the Cubs as slight favorites to win this series despite not having home field advantage, projecting them to win it 51.1% of the time entering Saturday’s opening game. The Brewers’ chances of winning the series jumped to 68.3% following their win that day but have since been tempered slightly to 67.8%, possibly in reaction to updates regarding Jackson Chourio’s availability to continue to play in the series. Of the Game 1 winners, FanGraphs was the most optimistic about the Dodgers chances to win their series against the Phillies (74%) after their opening victory and least convinced by the Tigers, putting them at 61%. The Tigers have since lost the second game of their ALDS series against the Mariners.
Looking further ahead, however, the Brewers still have some work to do to convince that same projection model of their status as a leading contender to win it all. FanGraphs has the Dodgers projected to win the World Series almost a third of the time (33.2%) and, despite their series lead, the Brewers as the fifth-most likely champion at 8.7%. Despite Division Series opening losses the model still has the Mariners (15.9%) and Phillies (8.8%) as more likely to win a championship than Milwaukee.
All of these teams, of course, still have games to play and no one gets to raise a banner for having been a favorite in a postseason series. With that said, both history and the best available projection models for the future both suggest the Brewers took a big step towards an extended postseason run with their win over the Cubs on Saturday.
