Photo by Brewersfan1061 via Wikimedia commons
Miller Park in July 2018
Miller Park in July 2018
As we discussed last week, the Brewers face longer-than-usual odds to make the 2024 MLB postseason. On the field, they’ve overcome long odds before. In 2018, for example, they won the NL Central in a season where FanGraphs gave them just a 21% chance to make the playoffs. In the stands, however, there’s another possible cost for entering the season with a perceived lesser team.
Tom Tango, a longtime statistical analyst and the senior data architect for MLB Advanced Media, posted a thread on X (formerly Twitter) last week comparing teams’ 2023 attendance numbers with their FanGraphs preseason odds of making the playoffs. What he found makes sense intuitively: Seven of the eight teams that entered the 2023 season with the highest chances of making the postseason also finished among the top eight in 2023 attendance. The only exception was the Mets, who saw their attendance diminish as they got off to a disappointing start, sold off assets at the trade deadline and finished 75-87. Conversely, seven of the nine teams that opened the season with the lowest playoff odds also finished in the bottom half of the sport in attendance. Only the Rockies and Cubs defied that trend.
MLB attendance and the factors that may or may not drive it is one of the most-studied topics in sports. Three researchers from Georgia Southern University released a paper on the topic in 2008 whose “The Literature Review” section alone cited dozens of previous works on the topic. Many of these studies are contradictory or inconclusive. Ben Langhorst of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) published a study in 2014 that suggested that 13 of the 30 MLB teams had attendance numbers that did not correlate with changes in team payroll, performance or individual performance. In that same study he listed the Brewers as the only fan base less responsive than average to changes in all three of those factors.
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Defying the Trend
The Brewers also defy the trend in Tango’s suggested model above: Over the last seven “normal” MLB seasons (excluding 2020) they’ve actually drawn more fans in seasons where they entered April less likely to reach the postseason. During that span their best two years in terms of attendance were 2018 and 2019, when they entered the season with sub-30% playoff odds. They drew 500,000 more fans in 2019 than they did in 2022, when FanGraphs gave them an 80% playoff probability.
The Brewers’ attendance numbers do match another previously observed trend, however. One longstanding theory is that a team’s attendance is, at least in part, driven by the team’s performance the prior year. This would explain the Brewers nearly reaching 3 million tickets sold in 2019, the season after they came within a game of the World Series in 2018, and eclipsing 3 million in 2009, a year after the team’s first postseason appearance since 1982. There’s also a business reason why a season like 2018 would lead to an attendance bump a year later as the Brewers, like many teams, give priority for playoff tickets to fans who have made deposits on ticket packages for the following season.
In concept it makes sense that a team’s attendance outlook could swing greatly based on preseason factors. Like most teams, the Brewers sell significantly more tickets from June through September than they do in April and May. It’s easier for a lot of fans to come to games during non-school months, the weather is nicer for tailgating and more people plan group outings. Given that reality, however, the team has more inventory available in April and May. While a team that’s playing well may increase demand for late season tickets, there’s only a limited number available. In April and May, however, a sudden burst of excitement around the team can make a much bigger difference.
To their credit, the Brewers have long had one of baseball’s most reliable fan bases. With the exception of 2020 and 2021 (which began under attendance limits), they’ve drawn 2 million or more fans to Miller Park/American Family Field in every season since 2004. It will be interesting to see if that trend holds, however, if the team takes a step back in 2024.
