Photo Credit: Dinur (Flickr CC)
The MLB non-waiver trade deadline is still more than two full months away and it’s very unusual to see major deals made before the Fourth of July, but this could be the year that it happens.
Despite the second Wild Card, an addition designed to keep more teams in contention, there are already a massive number of teams looking ahead to next year. FanGraphs suggests that nine teams already have a 2% or lower chance of reaching the postseason. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported late last week that the Rangers, who are one of those nine, will look to get the jump on what could be a buyer’s market and are already open to discussing possible trades.
The Rangers opened the 2018 season with a $133 million payroll, down from $165 million in 2017, and came into the year pretty clearly outmatched in a division that includes the Astros, Angels and Mariners. They’re expected to open a new ballpark in 2020, so any full-on tear down would need to be done on an accelerated timeframe in order to rebuild by that date. Instead, they’re probably more likely to tinker around the edges and deal away expiring contracts and high salaries that were unlikely to follow them to their new facility anyway.
As one might expect from a team that fell out of contention by mid-May, the Rangers don’t have a lot of attractive trade targets. Starting pitchers Doug Fister and Bartolo Colon are off to nice starts and might be able to help a contender fill in the back of their rotation, but neither offers much in terms of upside or name recognition.
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Pitcher Cole Hamels, on the other hand, would at least make a PR splash. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the Brewers are among his most likely landing spots, although Hamels would have to waive his no-trade clause for that to happen. Back in April Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported Hamels can reject trades to 20 teams this season, including Milwaukee.
Hamels, who is 34 and in his 13th MLB season, brings a long track record of success to the table: He’s been an All Star four times, most recently with Texas in 2016, has been a part of seven postseason teams and was the World Series MVP with the Phillies in 2008. The Rangers would, presumably, love to find his contract a new home: He’s making $23.5 million in 2018 and has a club option for 2019 that would pay him $20 million for 2019 if exercised or a $6 million buyout if declined.
Unfortunately, there’s reason to believe that some of Hamels’ value has faded with age. He averaged 211 innings and a 3.25 ERA from 2008-16, but was limited to just 24 starts in 2017 and saw his ERA climb above 4 for the first time in seven years. He missed significant time with an oblique injury, which is probably better news than an arm issue, but still served as a reminder that the wear and tear of more than 2,500 regular season and postseason innings will likely take a toll on him at some point. He was also scratched from a start last week with neck stiffness.
So far in 2018 Hamels has been able to compensate for a slight downtick in velocity (around 91 mph in 2018, as compared to 93 in 2016) by throwing a cutter a little more often. Through his first nine starts in 2018 his strikeout rate is up (9.9 batters per nine innings), but so are his walk and home run rates. The three projection systems cited at FanGraphs project him as being worth between 1.5 and 1.7 wins above replacement the rest of the way, comparable to expectations for someone like Zach Davies.
The Brewers’ oft-discussed payroll frugality may put them in a good position to add Hamels, who the Rangers may be willing to deal away for a small prospect return to a team that’s willing to pay him. Hamels, for his part, may be able to add some stability and credibility to the back of the Brewers’ rotation. The days of Hamels being a game-changing star may very well be over, however, so the Brewers and their fans would be well served not to get too excited over a possible move or put too much faith in his ability to change the landscape of the NL Central.
