PHOTO CREDIT: Evan Casey
In some ways the Milwaukee Brewers have learned a lot in the season’s first month, but in others they’ve raised more questions than they answered.
While there are still a few days left and games to play in April, Sunday’s game against the Cardinals marked a month since the Brewers opened the MLB season in New York on March 27. They’ve largely treaded water through that month, going 14-15 to stay in the picture in the NL Central but they’ve come far short of establishing themselves as a surefire contender.
The Brewers have already found a way to weather a challenge in their starting rotation and they’ve largely avoided a sophomore slump from Jackson Chourio. On the other hand, the winter’s questions about replacing Joey Ortiz at third base and maintaining the strength of their infield defense are just as unanswered now as they were then.
The most memorable moments of the season’s first month, however, have raised a separate question from any of those: Can the Brewers do better in game-deciding situations? Win Percentage Added is a statistic designed to measure the value of individual events in a game by quantifying the change in a team’s chances of winning before and after a given moment. That statistic shows that most of March and April’s biggest moments have featured things happening to the Brewers, not for them. Notably, 17 of the 25 biggest swings of the season to date have been in favor of the opposing team, including 14 hits by opposing players and three big outs recorded by opposing pitchers.
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The better news, however, is that the Brewers’ young players have factored prominently in many of the early top moments this season. By WPA, here are the five top moments for the Brewers in March and April:
Jackson Chourio’s game-tying ninth inning home run, Saturday.
Chourio had already collected a hit in his last three plate appearances and had moved to center field during a game for the first time all season when he came up in the ninth inning with the stage set for a big moment as the tying run at the plate. Chourio already has six hits and three home runs on the first pitch this season but none were bigger than Saturday’s, when he took often untouchable Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley deep to give the Crew new life.
Chourio’s game-tying tenth inning double, April 2
The Brewers and Royals had been locked in a pitcher’s duel for hours when they entered the tenth inning tied 1-1, but Kansas City infielder Michael Massey broke the tie with a single to drive home the automatic runner and give the Royals a 2-1 lead. That set the stage for Chourio, who this time worked a 3-2 count against closer Carlos Estevez before doubling down the line to tie the game and put the Brewers in position for more. He was stranded on base that inning but the Brewers eventually won in the 11th.
Caleb Durbin’s first MLB home run, April 21
It came earlier in the game than most of a season’s most important moments, but rookie third baseman Caleb Durbin had been to the plate in the big leagues a total of just eleven times in his career when he came up for the first time against former Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray in the second inning of a game against the Giants and crushing a 1-0 pitch to left center for his first major league home run and a 2-0 lead.
Sal Frelick clears the bases, April 5
The Brewers seemed well on their way to a rough Saturday night in the second home game of the season, giving up seven runs to the Reds in the first four innings. They scratched out a single run with a sac fly in the fourth, however, and in the fifth they loaded the bases for Sal Frelick. He lined a single to right that got away from Jake Fraley and scored three runs to make it a ball game once again. This was one of four hits for Frelick in the game.
William Contreras gives the Brewers an early lead, April 13
Many of the Brewers’ biggest wins this season have been more of a compilation of a series of small events than the result of a single standout moment, which is how a first inning, two-out two-run home run against the Diamondbacks ends up being one of the early season’s top moments. Nonetheless, the Brewers took an early 2-0 advantage against Zac Gallen, one of the sport’s top pitchers, when Brice Turang led off the game with a single and William Contreras brought him home by crushing an 0-2 pitch to left for his third home run in a span of six games. Contreras would go on to be named NL Player of the Week.
