Photo by Joe Hendrickson - Getty Images
American Family Field - Milwaukee (2024)
American Family Field in Milwaukee (2024)
The 2025 Milwaukee Brewers led the majors in wins, made the postseason for the seventh time in eight seasons and were one of the last four teams chasing a World Series championship. They’re one of just three MLB teams with four 90-win seasons in the 2020’s (the Dodgers and Yankees are the others). Despite all of that success, however, as the calendar turned to 2026, they weren’t near the top of anyone’s list of favorites to do those things again.
To some extent the Brewers have brought that upon themselves. Despite having spent much of the decade on the cusp of immortality they’ve largely opted not to go “all in” with either money or prospect capital. Their biggest transactions since 2018 have mostly been sales, not purchases: They’ve traded Corbin Burnes, Josh Hader, Devin Williams and now Freddy Peralta for younger, less expensive players.
It wasn’t that long ago that the Brewers tried the opposite: When Prince Fielder had one season of team control remaining in 2011 the Brewers could have traded him but instead opted to build around him, trading for elite starters Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum among others and building the team that would get closer to a championship than the franchise had been in almost three decades. After the season Fielder left as a free agent, however, and the Brewers’ contender status left with him.
Young, Inexpensive Talent
Under David Stearns and Matt Arnold the Brewers have pursued a different path, accumulating young and inexpensive talent in an effort to build a team that can sustain contender status year after year on a budget ranging from “below average” to “extremely small.” Viewed through that lens it’s hard to argue with their results. Even in the only season since 2017 when they didn’t make the postseason (2022) they spent 95 days in first place in the NL Central.
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The MLB postseason is often compared to a crapshoot. Short series at the end of a long season create a seemingly random environment where luck rivals talent as a deciding factor. In that environment putting all of a team’s eggs in one basket in pursuit of a “superteam” would be less likely to lead to a World Series win than a slow and steady effort to remain in position to contend every year and hope one of those “bites at the apple” will come away with the whole thing. The Brewers’ 5-14 record in postseason games since 2019 would suggest that there might be a little more to it than that, but perhaps their lucky year just hasn’t come yet.
The projections and prognosticators are not always pleased with the way the Brewers go about their business. It’s easier than ever to qualify for the MLB postseason but FanGraphs’ playoff odds have given the Brewers a sub-40% chance of doing so on Opening Day in 2024, 2025 and now again in 2026. During spring training in 2025 longtime MLB columnist Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic described the Brewers’ strategy as “curious at best” and criticized owner Mark Attanasio for clamping down on spending and reducing his team’s margin for error. The Brewers’ repeated success in seasons where they didn’t appear to have positioned themselves to contend has earned Arnold and manager Pat Murphy back-to-back Executive and Manager of the Year Awards. Arnold was the first ever to win that award twice, and Murphy is the first NL Manager to win his award in back-to-back seasons since 2005.
The path the Brewers are following is not common or conventional and at some point it may not work. For now, however, they’ve followed this path to the postseason enough times that it would be a surprise if they don’t exceed expectations again.
