Packer Fever alwaysseizes Wisconsinwhen camp opens, but the Brewers' woes ensured that this year's version will beespecially strong.
Artie: You got back from New York just in time for one of my favorite things—BobMcGinn's position-by-position analysis of the Pack in the Journal Sentinel. I live for this stuff!
Frank: Nobody covers pro football—or any other sport—the way myformer colleague Bob covers the Packers. The detail he goes into! Take hisplayer charts, the number of heights he gauges to the half-inch.
Artie: Let's see... Six of the 14 offensive linemen, five of the10 defensive linemen, three of the five tight ends, six of the 10 widereceivers—all 6-foot whatever and a half.
Frank: And the weights—McGinn doesn't settle for the usualfigures ending in 0 or 5. He gives us linemen who are 286, 303, 312, 314, 328,337, or linebackers at 237, 247, 254 or 256.
Artie: It's fascinating. Do the guys' personal doctors ever getthis precise? And all the other stuff—dropped-pass ratios, hang time on puntscalculated to two decimal places, the same for pass-release times orfrequency of every formation.
Frank: McGinn is the Stephen Hawking of NFL writers. He sees thefootball universe in ways no one else does. You stand in awe of the minutiae,but you're also a little afraid. I'd love to see his "war room" athome. It must be wall-to-wall shelves of tapes and printouts.
Artie: I'm pretty sure McGinn, in a super-detailed way, thinksthe Packers could have a super-duper year.
Frank: But I know you like to give more succinct forecasts, likethe ones in your column every December: "This year—sucked. Nextyear—probably suck even more."
Artie: I've never been proven wrong yet.
Frank: But I suspect you won't use that word about the 2010Packers.
Artie: Well, as training camp begins—things could change withcut-downs, injuries, whatever—without being too grandiose, I say they'll be inthe Super Bowl, but I'm not ready to say they'll win it.
Frank: Seems like you had ’em in the Super Bowl last season, too.
Artie: And I still do!
Frank: In some parallel universe you were probably right. Butlet's go into a little detail about this season. There's a problem on theD-line now that Johnny Jolly won't be jollying things up for the whole season.
Artie: His suspension for violating the NFL substance-abusepolicy will mean some real juggling. Which is a shame because he really playedwell last year.
Frank: Except for that head-butt that enabled the Vikings tocontinue a scoring drive at Lambeau Field.
Artie: The good news is that the Pack has depth in D-linemen. Theymoved Ryan Pickett from tackle to end and made B.J. Raji the No. 1 nose tackle.But see, it's the little extra something like Jolly...
Frank: I wouldn't call him a little anything.
Artie: But just that one extra good player that can separateearly dismissal from the playoffs from Super Bowl status.
Frank: Like the Giants of ’07. One reason they ruined thePatriots' perfect season was that they had, like, 12 effective defensivelinemen.
Artie: At any position, having that extra "piece," asthey say, is crucial. By the way, when did players become "pieces"?
Frank: It flatters the coaches' self-image as grandmasters of themost complex game ever conceived. Kind of like McGinn's chess-like analysis ofa blood-and-guts game—a true source of wonder.
Artie: There are some other question marks for the Pack. Does AlHarris come back from what everyone says was a horrific knee injury? But to me,the key thing is better special teams. They were ranked last or close to lastin the league last season.
Frank: The punting was lousy, as we all remember. But you alsomean return yardage, made and allowed, on punts and kickoffs?
Artie: They use all those categories to come up with one rankingfor special teams. And the Packers ranked way, way down.
Frank: Just like they ranked near the worst in penalties, for atleast the third straight season.
Artie: But of course Mike McCarthy will say what he always saysabout a glaring problem: "We'll get that fixed," or "cleanedup," or "taken care of." Drives me crazy! A Super Bowl team isgood in all areas, or at least competent. If you have that one really crappyaspect, it can kill you.
Frank: What about the offensive line? To me, it always seems likethey have questions about where certain guys will play.
Artie: In ’08 they thought it would be good to have guys readyfor multiple spots. That turned into "master of none, jackass ofall." Last year they tried to be more stable, but it didn't pan out. JasonSpitz got hurt and Scott Wells had to step in at center, where he did well.Chad Clifton was hurt and they tried Daryn Colledge at left tackle, whichdidn't work...
Frank: And Allen Barbre was lousy at right tackle.
Artie: Mark Tauscher, who wasn't even signed, came back toreplace him and things got better.
Frank: This year they seem to be relying heavily on Clifton and Tauscher toplay younger than they are, if that's the right expression. At the skillpositions everything seems great, but you never know when injuries will strike.How about the linebackers? Last year rookie Clay Matthews came on strong as apass rusher.
Artie: And they need that from the other side, especially withAaron Kampman in Jacksonville.Another rookie last year, Brad Jones, showed some promise as well. It's not aposition of dire need, but more depth can never hurt.
Frank: That'll do for now. In the Sept. 9 issue we'll proclaimour can't-miss predictions for the whole NFL.
The Big Chill
Frank: Remember that glimmer of hope we saw for the Brewers? Whatcan we say after two poundings at home by Cincinnatiand the three-loss, two-run weekend in Houston?
Artie: How's this? Getting swept after the ’Stros unloadedRoy Oswalt and Lance Berkman makes me confident the Crew can definitely lose 90games.
Frank: By the way, let's drop that "Cooler" label youpinned on me regarding the Brewers.
Artie: You left town, they won seven straight at home. Solidevidence, ain'a?
Frank: As you know, I keep my baseball ticket stubs and recordthe scores and outstanding plays. This year, when I'm in the stands the Brewersare 11-9 and when I use my Baseball Writers credential to sit in the press box,they're 3-1. That's 14-10 overall, a .583 winning percentage.
Artie: OK, the Brewers are Self-Coolers. Especially the allegedBig Two; Ryan Braun's tailspin has lasted weeks and Prince Fielder can't do athing with guys on base.
Frank: And what luck! Randy Wolf pitches six scoreless inningsSunday, then gets nailed on the wrist by a line drive. The relievers throw 10straight balls and pitch No. 11 becomes a grand slam.
Artie: Other teams must have a "book" on Braun thathe's not adjusting to. He's swinging at horrendous pitches, down and away ordown and inside. Reminds me of the Corey Hart of September ’08, totally lost.
Frank:But the Hart of August ’10�hasturned a strong season into a�three-year,$26.5 million�contract. Meanwhile, theBrewers say Mat Gamel, until now a third baseman,�will get time at first base�in Triple-A—a big hint that�Fielder will be traded this winter.
Artie: I say deal him to San Francisco for the highly touted21-year-old left-hander, Madison Bumgarner. I'd do it now, even-up.
