A Familiar Packers and Rams Matchup

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In the 2001 playoffs, an aging, once great Packer team ran into a buzz saw. The 1999 Rams came out of nowhere to win the Super Bowl behind NFL legend Dick Vermeil, and the offense had yet to slow down. The 2001 version, led by Vermeil protege Mike Martz, led the league in scoring by nearly 100 points over their next closest follower with 503, and the paltry 390 put up by Mike Sherman’s Packers wasn’t even in the same ballpark. The Rams ranked 5th in defense that season, just edging a pretty good Packer defense, which finished 8th.

In order to win the game, the Packers would have to keep pace with an offense that hadn’t really been figured out yet, (though it would be conquered by Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl).

This game is often viewed as a black mark on Brett Favre’s legacy, and I believe, is the biggest single factor in his reputation as a frequent thrower of interceptions. In truth, I believe this is one of Favre’s greatest and most fearless efforts. While it was not a good game, and Favre’s picks were what put them in the hole in the first place, Favre played appropriately. A conservative game plan was going to bury the Packers just as surely as anything, and Favre, too his credit, kept throwing and throwing and throwing, even though it made his eventual final stat line embarrassing. The Packer receivers in 2001 were simply not as talented as Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, and while Ahman Green was a fine player, Marshall Faulk was one of the greatest running backs of all time, especially as a receiver.

Ultimately, the quarterback was well aware of exactly what was going on and made it clear with his play that the very team itself, from talent, to coaching to game plan, were simply incapable of competing. Favre’s reputation is that of a strong-armed country bumpkin who just improvs all game, but that reputation is backed up by the facts. To a man, Favre’s teammates testify that he knew every play cold, and while Favre did lead the league in picks three times, he also lead the league in interception percentage (meaning he barely threw any) once. For any post-merger quarterback with more that 2,000 career attempts, Favre actually has the 19th lowest interception percentage at 3.3% of passes.

Favre is better than Phil Simms, Warren Moon, Jim McMahon, Boomer Esiason, Jim Kelly, Roger Staubach, Fran Tarkenton, Joe Theismann, Jim Plunkett and Terry Bradshaw. Kurt Warner, Troy Aikman and John Elway were just barely more careful with the ball than Favre. This six-pick playoff game went a long way towards defining Favre’s legacy, and it’s not really fair. Taking risks was their only chance, and Favre ended up bearing more ridicule than he ever deserved for doing the right thing.

Sunday McVay

The modern Rams present a similar challenge to that 2001 team. They lead the league in scoring, again by a large margin, with 235 points. They run an innovative offense with a forward-thinking coach in the brilliant Sean McVay, one of the league’s best receivers in Brandin Cooks and by far the best running back in the league. While Jared Goff is no Kurt Warner, he executes McVay’s game plan brilliantly, and Goff’s understanding of McVay’s philosophy generates more wide open receivers than almost any other team. When was the last time you saw the Packers hit a play this long and this open?

Or here:

Mike Pettine is going to be facing his greatest challenge by far. Many assume that a sophisticated offense needs to be complex, so as to pull the wool completely over the defense’s eyes. In truth, it’s not complexity that makes an offense tricky. Beating the defense is all about presenting impossible choices, not hidden choices. The biggest asset for the Rams is Todd Gurley. Most running backs are interchangeable, but Gurley is the rare special case. Gurley is as dangerous as a receiver as he is a back, and has the same career yards per reception average as most slot receivers. He is often more dangerous than the average outside receiver, and that allows the Rams to flip back and forth between running and passing regardless of the defense.

Gurley is the best all-around running back since Marshall Faulk at the height of the Greatest Show on Turf era, and because of his abilities as a receiver, he frequently faces nickel and dime defenses as a runner.

The challenge for the Packers on Sunday is to use their hybrid players on defense to counter Los Angeles’ ability to run any play from their base personnel. The biggest problem for them is that it really helps to be able to generate a pass rush with base personnel. The Rams eat overloads alive and attempting to lean towards run or pass will get you destroyed.

They probably won’t stop the Rams as no one stops the Rams, and to keep up, Aaron Rodgers will probably need to emulate Favre more than he would like. Settling for field goals will get them killed, and any wasted possession will leave them trailing. Unfortunately, with Rodgers banged up, the Packers have frequently stalled out in the red zone and settled for field goals. If the Packers attempt more than one field goal on Sunday, they’re going to lose.

My biggest fear is that Mike McCarthy will have the team attempting field goals down 21 points instead of playing hyper-aggressive offense. The Rams feed off of teams that don’t understand how they have to play against the Rams, and McCarthy isn’t exactly progressive in adjusting his game plans. McVay is one of the three best coaches in football along with Shanahan and Belichick, who the Packers just happen to face in back-to-back-to-back games. If Mike McCarthy is going to stick around in 2019, he has to prove he can compete with the best. McVay’s team is supremely talented and extremely well coached. To prove the Packers are their equal will take an effort that McCarthy hasn’t produced since 2010.