Photo Credit: Keith Allison
Packers at Redskins 09/23/18
Washington isn’t very good. While the Miami Dolphins intentionally try to lose games, Washington is nearly as bad, ranking last, or very near to it, in virtually every major offensive and defensive category. While they have managed to grind out a few wins recently, teams have generally beaten up on them. The Packers did what they needed to secure victory and move to 10-3, but their performance did not inspire confidence.
Rodgers Struggles
Aaron Rodgers had his worst game of the season, completing only 18 passes for 195 yards and losing a fumble. The passing game was completely shut down after some brief early success, and Rodgers fell back into some bad habits, throwing off his back foot and not setting up for short passes. Washington was able to hold Davante Adams in check, and unlike previous weeks, no second receiver was able to step up as Washington flooded the secondary and dared the Packers to beat them on the ground, which, thanks to Aaron Jones, they were more than capable of.
Rodgers wasn’t alone, as Davante Adams continued to struggle, as well. Adams is at his best when he can catch the ball with some momentum and generate yards after the catch, but he’s struggled to break tackles all season. This game was no different as he was held to just 4 catches for 41 mostly ineffectual yards. While it’s true that the other Packer receivers don’t do enough to take pressure off Adams, he hasn’t really done his part this season as he’s been held to 65 yards or fewer in 6 of 9 games. Premier receivers typically don’t have so many games like this, and Adams was markedly better last season in terms of consistent output and overall efficiency. Adams finished 2018 as the 16th most efficient receiver in football, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA statistic, but he has fallen to 30th in 2019 with just a few games remaining. Adams is allegedly fully recovered from his early season turf toe injury, but I wonder if he is still dealing with some lingering effects.
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Fortunately, Aaron Jones was around to pick up the slack as he averaged over 8 yards per carry. Jones also served as one of the better receivers in the passing game. The offensive line opened huge holes for Jones and Jamaal Williams, and they gained 4 yards before contact on average, which is an absurd success rate. Because of their success upfront, they were able to generate an early lead and grind the clock late. LaFleur called a conservative game, and while it would have been nice to see an alleged Super Bowl contender win going away, the outcome was never really in doubt.
Punt Returns
The Packers signed running back Tyler Ervin this week as a returner, and he paid immediate dividends with 4 punt returns for 51 yards. The Packers entered the game with negative punt return yards on the season, and while Ervin did a very nice job, special teams coach Shawn Mennenga called punt return formations for the first time in months, finally deciding to double-team opposing gunners to give his returner space.
Mennenga has been conservative to a fault this season in guarding against fakes, costing the Packers easy yards that every other team in the league enjoys. It’s a small thing, but if the Packers want to maintain position for a first-round bye, they’re going to need to do the small things right.
Beware Mitch Trubisky
The Packers next have the Bears, and it’s worth noting that in their first meeting, the Packers barely won. The Bears still possess an excellent defense, and they’ve rallied of late to get themselves back in the playoff picture.
Mitch Trubisky had an awful first half to his season, but he’s been better—in part due to an easy schedule, but also due to a change in offensive philosophy. Trubisky has popped up on the injury report sporadically with a hip injury, which I suspect has limited his mobility, and if Trubisky can’t run, he’s completely ineffective. Things changed last week against Dallas, where he broke out with a 10 carry, 63-yard performance on the ground. The best comparable player for Trubisky has always been Colin Kaepernick, another mobile, one-read quarterback who can be very effective in the right offense, but who has also struggled, as Trubisky did, when his mobility is limited.
If last week represented a real change to the Bears’ offense, the Packers could be in trouble this week. In any case, it’s likely they will need more than 10 points to come away with a win.
