Photo credit: Evan Siegle
Green Bay’s loss to Tampa on Sunday isn’t a big deal in the grand scheme of things. Despite their 4-2 record, Tampa is one of the NFL’s best teams, and entered their game against the Packers with the league’s second-best defense by DVOA. Even great teams lose a game or two along the way, and there’s no shame in dropping a game to a loaded Bucs squad, but it’s also clear that the Packers have a few glaring weaknesses, and if they don’t take steps to address them, they will find themselves in trouble come playoff time.
Aaron Struggles Under Pressure
The Packers famously passed on drafting a receiver in a historically outstanding draft, opting instead for quarterback Jordan Love, running back AJ Dillon, and tight end Josiah Deguara. It hasn’t really hurt them until Sunday, when the lack of proper personnel made it impossible to run Matt LaFleur’s preferred offense. Tampa’s secondary is among the best in football, anchored by corner Carlton Davis and safety Antoine Winfield. Combined with speedy inside linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David, they excel at limiting a horizontal, West Coast style passing game. They are vulnerable vertically, but creating enough time to throw deep isn’t easy as their pass rush is also excellent, and came into the game ranked first overall in ESPN’s “Pass Rush Win Rate” stat.
Typically, the Packers would use pre-snap motion to create confusion, forcing the defense out of position, but without Tyler Ervin or Allen Lazard available to create that confusion, Tampa’s defenders were always in the right place at the right time. LaFleur tried using Aaron Jones in place of Ervin early, and even had some mild success in the running game because of it, but they abandoned almost all motion in the second quarter and from that point forward, Tampa dominated.
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The lack of proper receiver depth also contributed to Rodger’s interceptions, both of which were forced throws to Davante Adams. Without Allen Lazard there was no legitimate threat to take pressure off of Adams, and Tampa dared Rodgers to throw somewhere else. In his first game back from injury Equanimeous St. Brown was not up to the task, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling was unable to get open in the deep secondary.
Matt LaFleur’s scheme is capable of exposing the flaws of weaker defenses, but against a complete package like the Bucs, it’s impossible to move the ball consistently without matching talent on offense. Tampa’s defense is fast, but light, and a power running attack combined with a vertical passing game can work, but only if you have a few reliable receivers. Until Lazard is back, Green Bay will continue to struggle against good defenses. Fortunately for them, they don’t face another one until Indianapolis in Week 11.
The Preston Problem
Last season the Packers had one of the league’s best pass rushes, led by the duo of Preston and Za’Darius Smith. Both were among the league leaders in sacks and hurries, and combined with the interior push provided by Kenny Clark, pressuring the quarterback was rarely an issue. The problems for the 2019 Packers stemmed from teams exploiting Kevin King’s weaknesses as a tackler, as well as the very poor coverage skills of the Packer inside linebackers, and Blake Martinez in particular. This season, with Jaire Alexander and Chandon Sullivan grading out as elite cornerbacks, and King more than holding his own, the defense should be great.
The problem this season is that the pass rush has completely fallen apart. Preston Smith seems to have lost his explosiveness and has been a non-factor in pass rush. Last season, according to Pro Football Focus, Preston Smith had 24 pressures to go with five sacks. This season, he has only seven pressures and just half a sack. The Smith Brothers as a unit generated 304 pressures last season. This season, they are on pace for 169. Without Preston’s pressure, Za’Darius Smith has suffered through more frequent double-teams. Unlike Preston, Za’Darius is still producing, but he’s also been moved around the formation more than is warranted in an attempt to cover for Kenny Clark’s injury, and while he’s been a good soldier, it has limited his effectiveness. Rashan Gary got off to a hot start after a disappointing rookie season, but injuries have derailed that momentum.
The decline in Preston Smith isn’t Mike Pettine’s fault, but so far this season he’s been passive in finding other ways to create a pass rush, including on Sunday where failing to blitz, or rush even four players, allowed Tom Brady ample time to pick out whatever receivers he wanted. Pettine often sticks to his game plan regardless of the circumstances, but if the Packer defense is going to improve, he’s going to need to fix his pass rush one way or another. Don’t be surprised if Preston Smith is a cap casualty this offseason.
