Green Bay Packers: Midseason Grades

×

Expand

Photo credit: Evan Siegle, Green Bay Packers

As we’ve reached the Packers’ bye week, we find them in an excellent position at 8-2 with six games remaining. They’ve managed this impressive record with a combination of rejuvenated and creative offense, wildly erratic defense and luck. While the defense is improved from last year’s version, they still fail to live up to the sum of its individual parts. The offense is the complete opposite, excelling despite the absence of their only real receiving threat and the struggles of their best offensive lineman. Perhaps no team in the league has been as impacted by their coaches as much as Green Bay, and ultimately their successes and failures lie with the grades of LaFleur and Pettine.

The Offense

• Quarterbacks: B

Aaron Rodgers has put together a nice, if imperfect season. Many of the problems Rodgers experienced with McCarthy are still evident, from slightly diminished arm strength to occasional bouts of inaccuracy, however his marriage with LaFleur has served to minimize these weaknesses and maximize his strengths. Rodgers takes care of the ball like no other, and by making use of his running backs in the passing game, and vastly improving in play-action, he now creates enough big plays to scare opposing defenses. 

There was concern early on that Rodgers may not appreciate LaFleur’s more run-focused schemes, but for the most part Rodgers has played within the offense, spread the ball around, and gotten the ball out on time and in rhythm. His sack rate is the lowest in three seasons, his Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) is his highest since 2014, he’s solidly in the top 10 of passing Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and while he doesn’t run as much as he once did, no quarterback is more efficient when he does. Efficiency stats like Expected Points Added (EPA) are not quite so positive, but that has more to do with the offense having committed 50 penalties, mostly on the offensive line.

It would be nice to see vintage Rodgers return at some point, however this version is good enough to get the job done, and if they improve at receiver and tight end in the offseason, maybe he’ll make an appearance. 

• Offensive Line: B

David Bakhtiari has likely played hurt this season. He briefly appeared on an early injury report with a bad back, and given his unusually poor level of play, it is the most likely explanation as players of his caliber do not suddenly become bad overnight. Bakhtiari has been beaten far more often than usual, and more importantly, he’s been a penalty machine. He’s also the only thing holding back the line from receiving a solid A, and if he can get healthy during the bye week, it would do wonders for the offense. 

Bryan Bulaga has quietly been the best player on offense, locking down the right side in pass protection, mauling people in the run game, and most importantly, staying healthy. The veteran may be having the best season of his distinguished career. His outstanding play has helped to disguise some of the weaknesses of free agent acquisition Billy Turner, though he’s been more than serviceable, and a major upgrade from last season. Turner occasionally gets beat when asked to move, but the Packers have done a nice job working within his limitations. Corey Linsley is one of the best centers in football. He’s quick, powerful, and rarely gets himself out of sorts on stunts or complicated blitz packages. He can move, he’s stout at the point, and he keeps mistakes to a minimum.

Thank goodness for rookie Elgton Jenkins. The left side of the line would be a complete mess had he not immediately stepped into the starting role and excelled. Perhaps the best run-blocker on the team, he’s also held up surprisingly well in pass protection, and looks to be one of the steals of the draft. Guards are basically never in the mix for rookie of the year, but it’s unlikely there is a more valuable rookie in football. Alex Light has been serviceable as a backup tackle.

• Wide Receiver: C

Davante Adams seems to improve every year, and 2019 is no exception. Adams is one of the five best receivers in football, and has career high numbers in yards per catch, yards per target, and catch percentage. Adams missed some time with turf toe, and his first game back against Kansas City was disappointing, but in general he has dominated.

The rest of the receivers range from promising to terribly disappointing. After having his 2018 season cut short due to injury many expected Geronimo Allison to break out in 2019. Instead, he has been the worst receiver on the team, frequently miscast in the “big slot” role, he struggles to get separation, and may not be long for this team. After a hot start, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has reverted to a novelty deep threat and nothing more. Jake Kumerow is a fine fourth receiver, but he is almost 28 years old and this is likely his ceiling. The most promising of the group is Allen Lazard who is the best route runner outside of Adams and employs a rare size-speed combination. Lazard is their best hope for a reliable secondary target.

• Tight End: D

If not for penalties, this may be an F, but Jimmy Graham has drawn enough of them, and the position is so bereft of talent league-wide, that he’s been fairly valuable. None of the current tight ends really fit LaFleur’s scheme, which benefits greatly from a well-rounded blocker/receiver. In his earlier days Marcedes Lewis would have been perfect, but he’s lost a step he never had and mostly feasts off blown coverages. Jace Sternberger is still very much a work in progress after missing most of the season, but he is their best long-term prospect. Robert Tonyan remains frustrating as he can’t stay on the field, and never seems to play up to his physical gifts. The Packers should attempt to improve this position as soon as possible.

• Running back: A

It’s hard to overstate how good Aaron Jones has been. If you only look at counting stats you may not realize his true brilliance, but digging into advanced metrics, MVP talk isn’t crazy. Per ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, when Jones is on the field, the offense averages .22 EPA per play, the best in the NFL. When he’s off, they average -.05 EPA per play, which ranks 25th. 

Jones is third in rushing DVOA, first in rushing success rate, and a respectable 13th in receiving DVOA. He should probably play more than he does, but keeping him rested has also keeps him healthy, and while Jamaal Williams lacks Jones’ impressive numbers, he’s been a better receiving back overall (sixth, according to DVOA), and does a nice job in pass protection. Finally, fullback Danny Vitale has been great in small doses as a receiver and an adequate lead blocker when called upon. He could stand to see more time as a de facto tight end. 

The Defense

• Defensive Line: C+

Kenny Clark had been one of the best defensive players in football coming into this season and figured to anchor a very solid defensive line. He hasn’t been bad, but frequent double teams have stifled the young tackle, and his line mates haven’t taken enough advantage of his dirty work. It’s possible that Clark is also hurt as, like David Bakhtiari, young players of his caliber rarely fall off this severely, but that doesn’t change the fact that Clark has not been himself, and the defense has suffered for it.

Dean Lowry is a fine pass rusher, and has occasionally shown up against the run, but he is emblematic of the problems across the line. He, Tyler Lancaster and Montravius Adams have their specialties, but all can be exploited with Adams and Lancaster not providing much pressure, and Lowry vulnerable against the run. Clark should be the great equalizer here, but as long as he’s struggling, the front is vulnerable. The best way to judge this group is through Blake Martinez, who sits behind them at inside linebacker, and either benefits from their good plays, or gets blown up by their bad plays. Over the last four games, there has been far too much of the latter. 

• Outside Linebacker: A

The Smith Brothers, Za’Darius and Preston, deserve every accolade they have received. To the extent the defense has improved from last season, they are the driving force. No pass rushing duo has recorded more pressures than their 62, and off the field you couldn’t ask for better, or more entertaining leaders. Preston is the more well-rounded of the two, as Za’Darius can occasionally struggle against the run, but it hardly matters. If they continue to terrify quarterbacks, anything else they bring to the table is gravy. 

Rookie Rashan Gary is still raw, but he’s flashed explosiveness in limited action. He remains a project who can occasionally bull rush his way to the quarterback. Kyler Fackrell was never going to repeat his gaudy sack total from last season, but he continues to show up in big moments on occasion as when he stoned Christian McCaffrey at the goal line to win the Carolina game. Fackrell has done a nice job turning his career around, and he’s a fine backup. 

• Inside Linebacker: C-

Blake Martinez gets both more and less attention than he deserves. He’s the least important cog in the defense, and his success is mostly based on the actions of other people. He’s a good downhill tackler and by most accounts, a smart player, but he struggles in even the most basic coverage responsibilities, and he can get tentative in picking the right gap if the line isn’t up to snuff that week. Mostly, he’s fine. 

Oren Burks has been a healthy scratch on more than one occasion when his theoretical skill set would have been a godsend to the defense. He probably won’t be on the 2020 Packers. B.J. Goodson has performed well as an occasional thumper. Ty Summers is a work in progress. 

• Cornerback: B-

This is, I believe, the toughest position on the team to grade. The secondary should have better overall results based on the talent now playing, and the biggest culprit has been Jaire Alexander. Alexander is generally outstanding in providing tight coverage, and he has impressive PD (Passes Defended) numbers, but he is sometimes overly aggressive and allows big plays. That profile can work, but his aggressiveness rarely pays off as he has a habit of dropping even easy interceptions. He has only one on the season, and he’s dropped at least four others. If he doesn’t start making splash plays, he’ll need to change his style. 

Across from Alexander, Kevin King has been reliable, if unspectacular. Healthy for the first time in his career, he’s quietly dominated in pass coverage, holding opposing number two receivers to the second lowest DVOA in football. King is not a sure tackler, but he’s good enough in coverage to make up for that liability. Tramon Williams has also been well above average in the slot. 

Depth has been an issue. After showing potential in 2018, Tony Brown has struggled in limited opportunities. Josh Jackson appears to be a bust. Chandon Sullivan has at least held his own in coverage. The Packers continue to prove that you can never have enough corners. 

• Safety: B-

The minus here is for the Big Nickel slot originally occupied by Raven Greene and then briefly by Will Redmond. Mike Pettine needs a solid player at this position for his defense to function, and he hasn’t had it since Greene’s injury. Hopefully, the returning Ibraheim Campbell is the answer. 

Adrian Amos has been exactly what the team needed. Amos isn’t a star, but he’s very good as an in-the-box player, snuffing out the run, and more than able to handle most tight ends and running backs. He is responsible for two of the biggest defensive plays of the year, forcing turnovers when backed up against the end zone. 

Darnell Savage is quite the physical specimen, however one of the biggest concerns with the slightly undersized safety is health, and he has missed plenty of time already. Savage, like Alexander, can be aggressive to a fault and get himself out of position. The duo shows immense promise, but they are the two most responsible for the rash of big plays that continues to plague the defense. 

• Special Teams: D

Mason Crosby has missed only one kick on the season, but he has struggled with kickoff distance. That issue is exacerbated by generally poor coverage from Packer special teams where the Packers have given up far too many easy yards. Conversely, Green Bay’s long punt return on the season is one yard, and the brief decision to use Darrius Shepherd in this role was an unmitigated disaster.

J.K. Scott started the season in dominating fashion, but he’s struggled lately as the weather has cooled, including allowing a block (which should be charged to the line). In his last three games, he’s failed to crack 40 yards per punt, and he’s shanked more than his fair share. 

This unit has struggled for years and, unfortunately, not much has changed.

• Coaching: B-

Matt LaFleur’s offense took some time to get going, but after it clicked with Rodgers, the difference from McCarthy was immense. Given the lack of talent in the receiving corps and the quality of defenses faced, along with the prolonged absence of Davante Adams, they warrant an A. Mike Pettine, on the other hand, appears overmatched. With a huge upgrade in talent, the upgrade in results has been minimal. Special teams coordinator Shawn Mennenga is frequently and correctly compared to former special teams coordinator Ron Zook.