Photo Credit: EVAN SIEGLE, GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Packers have struggled to stop the run all season. Mike Pettine, like his predecessor Dom Capers, generally focuses on stopping opposing passers with the understanding that most teams won’t run the ball well enough to be a real threat. Capers was once burned by this philosophy badly by the San Francisco 49ers and Colin Kaepernick. History repeated as Raheem Mostert and the San Francisco running game piled up 285 yards on the ground, ending Green Bay’s season.
Mostert’s electric 36-yard run on 3rd and 8 set the tone for the entire game as the Packer defense repeatedly lost gap integrity and failed to set the edge on the outside. Mostert is one of the NFL’s fastest running backs, and he managed to rip off eight carries for 10 yards or more, exploiting every missed tackle and poor angle for huge gains. Mostert was an undrafted free agent who has been in the league since 2015. Currently on his seventh team but finally given a chance by the 49ers, he had a sensational season, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and over 12 yards per reception. On Sunday, he led his team to the Super Bowl where they will face the Kansas City Chiefs.
49er head coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive play callers in the NFL, and his familiarity with Mike Pettine from their time together in Cleveland was evident. Shanahan repeatedly called runs into light boxes, using the Packer front’s aggressiveness against it. He also directed several outside runs and sweeps at the poor-tackling Kevin King with great success. Shanahan is a master of misdirection, as well as targeting opposing weakness, but even when the 49ers enjoyed a large lead and it was obvious they would continue to run, the Packers were still unable to stop them, largely due to Shanahan’s creativity.
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On offense, Green Bay fared no better, reverting to the short, safe throws that got them into so much trouble in their first meeting. San Francisco’s entire defensive philosophy revolves around nudging opponents to throw the ball short, where their sure tackling never fails. While Aaron Jones was able to grind out a few nice gains on the ground, the short-passing game put the Packers in too many 3rd and long situations where San Francisco’s pass rush got to Rodgers mentally and physically. Rodgers threw two uncharacteristic picks, and a second quarter fumbled snap when they were driving for a score was the nail in the coffin.
Once the game was out of hand, the Packers finally started hitting the 49ers in some of their weak points, targeting Richard Sherman over the top and hitting some big plays down the middle, but it was too little, too late. Both Rodgers and Davante Adams put up nice box score games, but both were completely ineffective when the game was still in question. San Francisco bracketed Adams with double coverage until they stopped caring, and the secondary Packer receivers were, as usual, unable to pick up the slack. Jimmy Graham returned to his old form by missing several blocks and failing to run convincing routes when he was not the intended target.
Green Bay now faces an offseason full of unknowns. They overachieved by going 13-3, and their underlying numbers, especially point differential, are closer to that of a typical 9-7 team. As we saw with Chicago this year, that kind of luck usually does not repeat itself. Pettine’s defense improved from its first year to its second with a fresh infusion of talent, but the more forward-thinking offensive coaches in the league had no trouble tearing it apart, and it’s hard to see them getting to the Super Bowl without a massive improvement from Pettine himself.
On the offensive side, they need a complete overhaul at the receiver and tight end positions. As Rodgers continues to age and decline, the only way to improve the offense is to improve the supporting cast. For as much credit as Matt LaFleur received this season, his offense did not actually score more points than McCarthy’s did in his final season, and Rodgers’ overly conservative decision-making failed to improve under the new regime. The receivers outside of Adams are mostly composed of late round picks and undrafted free agents, and it showed against good defenses who simply took away Adams with double coverage. Jimmy Graham is unlikely to return, and while there are a small number of potential free agent solutions like San Diego’s Hunter Henry, it will be difficult to address this position in free agency.
While Packer fans should celebrate this season as an unqualified success, the front office would be wise not to rest on their laurels. Brian Gutekunst did an outstanding job rebuilding the defense last season, and a similarly aggressive approach on offense this offseason should put the team in an excellent position to contend again in 2020.
