Photo Credit: Jim Bahn
San Francisco Levi's Stadium
By Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, this was the fourth worst game Aaron Rodgers has ever started while not being injured during the game. The offense seemed to go exclusively after 49er strengths and maybe just didn’t have the horses to exploit their weaknesses. Mike Pettine’s defense was fully healthy, with an extra week to prepare for an average San Francisco offense, but they were no match for Kyle Shanahan’s creativity. This is what a real Super Bowl contender looks like.
Rodgers and LaFleur Stagnate
I can’t help wondering if we mistook “difference” for “creativity.” LaFleur is not Mike McCarthy, and his style in terms of preferred plays are generally similar to 49er coach Kyle Shanahan’s, which is a breath of fresh air. That offense uses a lot of deception, and we generally think of deception as clever. When Shanahan runs similar plays, they tend to be clever, picking on specific opposing weaknesses. With LaFleur, it’s more like someone gave him a hat full of Shanahan plays and he just picked out a few and decided to run with them.
In LaFleur’s defense, it’s unfortunate that the biggest weakness of the 49er defense is covering the non-primary and slot receivers as the Packers have no good receivers outside of Davante Adams and perhaps Allen Lazard. This should have been a nice opportunity for Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but they instead they combined for four catches, and 16 yards, and almost caused several turnovers. Receiver is the biggest single need on the team, and it would have been nice to see the Packers upgrade at the deadline. If a team can take away Jones and Adams, the Packer offense is helpless.
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The 49ers are also weak against the run, but the Packers were generally playing from behind, and right tackle Bryan Bulaga was forced to leave the game with a knee injury. Aaron Jones was used infrequently, and his runs were often telegraphed, leading to generally poor results. Most of the success the Packers enjoyed, running and passing, was in garbage time with Tim Boyle and Jamaal Williams.
It was as dominant a defensive performance, as you will see. Aaron Rodgers’ average depth of target on the game, according to Pro Football Focus, was actually behind the line of scrimmage at -0.1 yards. By the advanced stat of Expected Points Added (EPA), four of the five biggest plays for the Packer offense in this game were 49er penalties. It’s impossible to score when taking absolutely no risks.
Perhaps the most alarming series of the entire game was the Packers’ lone touchdown drive. Short passes had not been working all game, they were down 23-0, and the defense had just forced a stop. There were still 12 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, which is more than enough time to erase a three or even four score deficit. The 49er defense can be susceptible to deep crossing routes off of play action and given the need to create as many possessions as possible, taking more shots downfield made a lot of sense. Niner defensive back Richard Sherman has also been a pass interference magnet over his few games, and the officials had their eye on him in this one. Deep passing had plenty of positives and few negatives.
Instead, we were witness to one of the least valuable non-garbage time touchdowns drives in NFL history. The 15-play drive commenced with 12:26 remaining in the third quarter and ended with 3:52 remaining. The longest Packer play on the drive was a 15-yard dump-off to Jamaal Williams, and not only did they waste enough time for another possession or two, they also used a timeout. To add insult to injury, after this long and grinding drive, it took the 49ers less than a minute to respond, as Jimmy Garoppolo hit George Kittle for a 61-yard score on the second play of the subsequent drive, and the game was over.
Pettine’s Hot Seat
Mike Pettine has far better players on his defense than Dom Capers had near the end of his tenure. Where Pettine has the amazing Smith brothers, Capers had Nick Perry and old man Clay Matthews. Capers had Brice and Clinton-Dix where Pettine has Savage and Amos. Capers had Randall and House, where Pettine has Alexander and a healthy Kevin King.
Yet, Pettine’s squad has barely improved at all. In Capers’ final season, the defense allowed an average of 24 points per game. In Pettine’s first year, they allowed an average of 25 points per game. This season, with those changes and that pressure from the Smiths, they’ve barely improved from Capers, at 22 points allowed per game.
The defense is constantly victimized by big plays over the deep middle (a strategy that the Packer offense rarely employs for some unknown reason), and they seem to have no idea how to fix it. Pettine’s defense is, like Capers’, predicated on creating turnovers. In the modern NFL where teams are more careful with the ball than ever before, that simply doesn’t work. If they don’t improve drastically, he should be gone.
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The 49ers are, in many ways, the Platonic ideal of the Packers. They have a better version of the Packers’ head coach, they have a true strength in a dominant defense, they made a midseason move to shore up their receiving corps by sending a 3rd and 4th round pick to Denver for Emmanuel Sanders, and they seem to recognize and exploit opponent weaknesses as well as any team. The Packers were completely outclassed.
