Photo by Evan Siegle - packers.com
Josh Jacobs vs the Dolphins, December 1, 2024
Josh Jacobs vs the Dolphins, December 1, 2024
The Packers played their most complete game of the year on a cold Thanksgiving night, winning a 30-17 victory over the Miami Dolphins that wasn’t really that close. Miami was impacted by the weather and looked extremely uninterested in tackling Packer running-back Josh Jacobs, who accounted for 117 yards and a touchdown, while Green Bay’s defense held Miami in check until the game was well in hand.
The Packers have been their own worst enemy for most of the season, with turnovers, drops, special teams gaffes, and penalties doing far more damage than any individual opponent, however, since their Week 10 bye, Green Bay has worked out the kinks, and played much cleaner. By advanced metrics like Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and Expected Points Added (EPA) they are now one of the five best teams in football, even if they’re third in their own division.
Against the Dolphins, Jordan Love played a clean game, throwing two touchdowns against zero interceptions, and since the bye, he’s thrown five touchdowns against just one interception. Receiver Dontayvion Wicks has had a terrible issue with drops this season, but since the bye he’s caught 63% of his targets and looked far more sure handed in doing so. And since being acquired, Brandon McManus has hit 91% of his field goals, and all of his extra points.
Jordan Love Recovering
Jordan Love is also healthier, having recovered from his early season knee and groin injuries. While he was injured, Love was forced to play exclusively from the shotgun, which impacted the Packers running attack and play-action passing game. Now that Love can move, Matt LaFleur has successfully implemented many of the rushing concepts that the team ran under Malik Willis while he was in for Love. The net result of these improvements is a low-key offensive juggernaut, capable of playing with any team in the league.
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The Packers are peaking at the right time on offense, but their work on defense may be even more encouraging. While the team used the bye week to drill some precision into the offense, on the defensive side, we have seen significant technique improvements in both linebacker Quay Walker, and edge rusher Lukas Van Ness. The improvement among the younger players boosted the Packers’ defensive ranking into the top 10 of the league in EPA (which adjusts for pace of play and is more accurate than points allowed). The Packers are unlikely to catch the Lions for the NFC North crown, however, comparisons to the 2010 Super Bowl champion Packers are becoming more and more justified as the season goes on. That was also a team that struggled early due to injuries and youth, and came together down the stretch, surprising most of the league.
Green Bay plays Detroit on Thursday this week, the first time in franchise history they have back-to-back Thursday games, and if they are going to catch the Lions, this is a must-win. It won’t be easy. The Lions are, by any metric, the best team in football. They are a top five unit in all three phases, and do not have any obvious weaknesses for Matt LaFleur to exploit, but when the Packers are playing crisp football, that’s largely true for them as well. The Packers may also be catching Detroit at a good time, as the Lions struggled against the Bears on Thanksgiving Day, and will likely be without pass rusher Josh Paschal, and run-stopping linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez. Star left tackle Taylor Decker missed the Chicago game, and his status for the Packer game is uncertain.
While the Packers benefitted from the elements against Miami, in their last game against the Lions on a rainy day at Lambeau Field, the weather worked against them. Backup center Elgton Jenkins had several aborted shotgun snaps, Brandon McManus missed his only field goal of the season, and Jordan Love threw a devastating pick-six to safety Kerby Joseph. While playing on the road in Detroit presents its own challenges, including their always dangerous turf, it will be interesting to see how the Packers perform against the league’s best team without any climate randomness to muck up the game. If they can pull off the upset, the division is still within reach.
