Packers’ Priority: Get Healthy

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Lambeau Field in winter - 2019

Lambeau Field

After Green Bay was rolled by Derrick Henry and the Ravens on Saturday night, the path forward for the Packers became crystal clear. Green Bay is locked into the NFC’s final Wild Card spot entering next week’s game against Minnesota. They will take on the number two seed in the first round of the playoffs, and the only question is whether that will be the Bears, who finish with the Lions at home, or the Eagles, who face the Commanders in Philadelphia. The Eagles will need to win and have the Bears lose in order to jump Chicago.

The Packers have unsurprisingly struggled since losing edge rusher Micah Parsons to a torn ACL, and their extremely poor run defense was on full display against Baltimore, one of the best running teams in the league, but I wouldn’t count the Packers out just yet. That may sound crazy, as the team has lost three games in a row, and given that they’re likely to start third string quarterback Clayton Tune on Sunday, there is a good chance they finish the season on a four-game losing streak. It’s hasn’t looked great, but being locked into a spot, even the last spot, is just what this team needs, because the biggest obstacle for Green Bay is health. The Packers have been one of the most injured teams in the league both by pure volume, and by level of impact. Most teams would not even make the playoffs while missing star caliber players like Parsons, Tucker Kraft, Zach Tom, and for much of the season, Jayden Reed, and Christian Watson.

It's important to keep in mind that when this team was at its healthiest, they were one of the best teams in the league by record, and by most advanced statistics like Expected Points Added (EPA) and Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). It’s also important to keep in mind that by those same metrics, there are no truly good teams this year. The closest thing to a great team in the NFL is the Rams, who just lost to a poor Falcons team on Monday Night Football. Every other team in the league, even among playoff contenders, is extremely flawed.

Serious Self-Scouting

And so, the Packers’ main task over the next two weeks is to simply not get anyone else of significance injured and allow those that are banged up to recover. They would also benefit from some serious self-scouting in a few key positions, because there are a few stalwarts that have experienced significant decline and should not start a playoff game at their current level of play.

The first is left tackle Rasheed Walker. Walker has been a serviceable left tackle for his tenure as a Packer, and even though he has experienced a down year, someone will probably pay him a handsome amount in free agency this offseason. However, assuming Zach Tom is healthy enough to start at right tackle two weeks from now, Walker is not a part of the best line the Packers can put out there. He’s been one of the worst tackles in the league in the running game, and he’s taken a huge step back as a pass protector as well. Second year tackle Jordan Morgan has finally settled in now that the Packers have stopped trying to make him play guard, and he’s a much more physical, and reliable tackle.

The second is running back Josh Jacobs, who is clearly impacted by various leg injuries, and has seen his success rate plummet as a result. Jacobs is a great running back when healthy, and far superior to Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks, but he’s obviously not healthy. Jacobs’ inability to push the pile in short yardage has likely cost the Packers a win or two during their current losing streak. If he can get back to something like 85% of his normal self, he’s worth having out there, but whatever he is playing through right now is too much to overcome. If Jacobs doesn’t recover, they would be much better served to play Wilson on running downs, and Chris Brooks on all passing downs.

Half-Hearted Pursuits

Last, and most importantly, the team needs to bench Rashan Gary. Generating a pass rush without Parsons was always going to be difficult, but his injury has been exacerbated by the complete collapse of Gary, who cannot even play a full game at this point. His film over the second half of the season is filled with clips of half-hearted pursuit and jogging after plays. When he was healthy, Micah Parsons played over 85% of snaps on defense, while Gary has been closer to 50%. I’m not sure if he’s injured or just out of shape, but Gary’s only weapon as a pass rusher was his insane athletic ability, and it’s just not showing up on tape.

Lukas Van Ness and Kingsley Enagbare are the two best edge rushers on this team, and Gary might not even crack the top four if recently activated rookie Collin Oliver can show anything. Gary will not be back with the team next season, and he has to be considered their biggest disappointment of the year.

The Packers also reacted to their poor performance against the Ravens by bringing back defensive tackle Jonathan Ford. Ford won’t help the pass rush, but the Packers were in dire need of a big body to put in front of linebackers Quay Walker and Edgerrin Cooper, and Ford fills that need.

More than anything, the Packer offense is capable of carrying an average defense. It’s been phenomenal all season, especially once Christian Watson returned, and even with Malik Willis at the helm it never slowed down. The trick for the playoffs will be for Jeff Hafley to install some of the blitz packages that kept them afloat last season before they had Micah Parsons, and to ensure they have their best players out there. They have two weeks to get ready, and as the Bears are their likely opponent, they have the benefit of familiarity. If they can get healthy enough, they still have a shot.