Raiders Figure Out Packers

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Photo by Evan Siegle - packers.com

The Raiders' Amik Robinson covers Christian Watson on October 9, 2023

The Raiders' Amik Robinson covers Christian Watson on October 9, 2023

For the first three weeks of the season Matt LaFleur and the Packer offense made excellent use of the particular strengths of their new weapons. They managed to get rookie Jayden Reed in space, capitalizing on his speed. They leaned on Romeo Doubs as a reliable possession receiver. Tight End Luke Musgrave was effective on leak outs and short passes due to his unique combination of size and speed. Even fifth rounder Dontayvion Wicks routinely ran himself open, making good use of his almost Davante Adams-like release off the line. Quarterback Jordan Love made judicious use of all of his receivers, spreading the ball around, despite a lackluster running game absent Aaron Jones. 

Yesterday, in Las Vegas, the Raiders solved the Packer offense, and for Green Bay, adjusting back is going to be extremely difficult. This is the second week in a row where the offense was listless, and while it was easy enough to blame the short week of last week’s Thursday night performance against the Lions, there are no excuses here. Green Bay had eleven days to prepare for a very poor Raiders team, and they were outperformed across the board. It all started with the quarterback.

Jordan Love has excelled in exactly one area so far as a passer, and that is in hitting intermediate throws to the middle of the field. Middle throws are extremely efficient throws, and it’s not a bad skill to have, but Love’s early success in this area helped to disguise just how poor he’s been on every other type of pass. When throwing deep (over 20 yards) he’s just 6 of 24 with two interceptions, but more alarming, by Adjusted Completion Percentage (which adjusts for drops) he is 34th on throws at or behind the line of scrimmage and ranks no better than 30th to any part of the field. He’s been atrocious. The Raiders simply took away the middle and dared him to beat them short, outside, and deep, and he was completely incapable of doing so. His first interception seemed like a desperate attempt to target the middle of the field despite the presence of three Raider defenders between Love and his target. 

Weak at the Catch Point?

Love’s receivers also didn’t do him any favors, as every negative from their college scouting reports appeared en masse. Jayden Reed is a burner, but he’s weak at the catch point and has too many drops. He’s also most effective over the middle, and those throws were simply not available in this game. Christian Watson can outrun just about anyone, but he’s never been a great contested catch player, and while it’s disappointing that he was embarrassingly outjumped by Raiders corner Amik Robinson on the game’s final play, despite an eight-inch height advantage, it’s not surprising. Luke Musgrave is fast, but in college he produced almost no yards after the catch and seems to have the balance of a baby giraffe. Finally, running back AJ Dillon continues to struggle while Aaron Jones is out recovering from a prolonged hamstring injury. 

It's a shame because the Packers’ defense actually played quite well. Rudy Ford’s third quarter interception of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo led directly to the only Packer touchdown of the day, and the Packer pass rush was effective in getting to Garoppolo four times while providing consistent pressure. While edge rusher Preston Smith did wind up covering star Davante Adams at one point, the Packers actually did an outstanding job on their former teammate, holding him to just four catches for 45 yards. Even the much-maligned Packer run defense held up well, holding running back Josh Jacobs to just 69 yards on 20 carries, though he did punch in one touchdown. 

This loss falls entirely on the shoulders of Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love, who couldn’t get out of their own way even when things went well. Midway through the 3rd quarter the Packers had an opportunity to go up 17-10 after an outstanding 77-yard bomb to Christian Watson, on one of the few deep shots that did work. The play would end on a horse collar tackle, giving the Packers the ball at the Las Vegas three, but AJ Dillon went backwards on two consecutive carries and a third down pass to Romeo Doubs fell incomplete. The Packers settled for a field goal, and their offense remained inept for the remainder of the game.

LaFleur’s gameplan was baffling. Gone were the play-action leak outs and RPOs that have been effective this season. Instead, the team enjoyed a steady diet of slow-developing runs, and longer passes behind a banged up offensive line. Making matters worse, the Raiders really only have one good pass rusher in Maxx Crosby, yet he frequently found himself singled over tight ends Luke Musgrave or Tucker Kraft with no help. Crosby should have been doubled on every single play. He has 60% of all Raider sacks on the season, and no one else on the defense is capable of creating consistent pressure. Letting Crosby dominate a game like he did is inexcusable, especially off of a long week. 

Green Bay will get to dwell on this one throughout next week’s bye before heading to Denver to face an absolutely atrocious Broncos team. If they can’t right the ship against Denver, it’s going to be a very long season.