Replacing Ted Thompson is Risky Business

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With the Packers closing out the season on a depressing, if expected, performance against the Detroit Lions, the organization started cleaning house in earnest, first relieving defensive coordinator Dom Capers of his duties. This was expected as Capers’ defenses have been inconsistent, and his focus on creating turnovers doesn’t mesh well in the modern NFL.

The real bombshell fell on Monday when the team announced that longtime general manager Ted Thompson had been let go as well, though he will remain in the organization in an advisory role.

Fans love nothing more than blaming the coordinators, head coach and GM to varying degrees, and Thompson has taken his share of that beating from the Packer faithful, but almost all of it is unjustified. In assessing blame for past failures, the major culprits are:

1. Capers inability to adjust to read option offenses against San Francisco (Kaepernick) and Seattle (Wilson)
2. Aaron Rodgers’ collarbone
3. Jordy Nelson’s knee
4. Mike McCarthy’s inability to scheme around the loss of Nelson while Capers actually provided a top 10 defense in 2015
5. Dumb luck in the form of these various injuries and Brandon Bostick not executing on an onside kick

Thompson isn’t perfect and his weakness in drafting defensive ends and edge rushers would appear shortly on this list, but generally speaking, Thompson provided the team with more than enough supporting talent make them Super Bowl favorites in most years.

Ted Thompson is a weird person, and that doesn’t help his reputation. He only speaks publicly when the league mandates that he must, and he doesn’t give away much when he does speak, but his actions speak much louder than his words anyway, and his track record as GM reveals that he ran one of the most sophisticated, and analytically advanced front offices in the league. His ability to scout wide receivers is his greatest asset, and during his tenure the team essentially never lacked a top 10 player at the position. His eye for offensive lineman was, if anything, even better, and Aaron Rodgers frequently enjoyed elite protection during Thompson's tenure.

Some may point to the secondary as a weakness, but in almost every instance where the Packer corners and safeties struggled, injuries were to blame. I still contend that Nick Collins would have been a hall of fame level safety had he not suffered a career ending injury, and losing Sam Shields to a series of concussions that ended his career played havoc with the development of Damarious Randall. Thompson famously brought in Charles Woodson when NFL consensus was the he was almost finished. He brought in the unheralded Tramon Williams in 2006 when he was cut by the Texans. Williams turned into one of the NFL’s best corners and he was one of the true heroes of the 2010 Super Bowl. Even former Packer defensive backs like Casey Hayward and Micah Hyde, show that Thompson was always able to find great players, even if Capers had no idea how to use them.

Thompson’s genius was in his marriage of scouting and analytics. The Packers have clear thresholds for each position in terms of minimal (or maximum) athletic ability, height and weight. They properly value positions, rarely reaching for running backs or inside linebackers, and refusing to give raises to guards. Thompson was also a master negotiator and cap manager. He almost never signed a bad contract, and routinely made savvy moves like extending Davante Adams and Corey Linsley during the current season, allowing their bonuses an extra season of amortization.

That said, his scouts and front office were also well versed in the more subjective skills required to do the job well. Thompson’s preferred early round receivers are almost always polished route runners, and the team seemed to have an almost supernatural ability to pick out players who could be coached up. Thompson used a rigorous approach to create his pool, and allowed his scouts to work within it. This is exactly how a front office should operate.

Many pundits seemed to think Thompson was lazy or cheap for his lack of action in the free agent market, but that too, is an unjustifiable slander. The free agent market is almost always a fool’s game, and his few major plays in Woodson and Julius Peppers paid major dividends. Moreover, the Packers were generally in the top half of the league in payroll, and no one can really be cheap in a salary cap league.

The fact is that Thompson’s front office generally outworked every other team in unearthing diamonds in the rough. Sam Shields was an undrafted free agent who became a top cover corner. Down the stretch of this season corner Lenzy Pipkins and linebacker Reggie Gilbert outplayed most of their more high profile teammates. Gilbert, who spent most of the season on the practice squad, showed the burst that many expected from former Badger Vince Biegel, while Pipkins’ willingness to physically engage with receivers is a welcome change from the norm. Both players were undrafted free agents that are starting to look like potential steals. Thompson may be judicious with free agency, but he has always uncovered talent everywhere else, and in the end the source of your talent doesn’t really matter.

Thompson went about his business the right way. The front office had a reputation for being true hardasses, but they also took care of their own guys to the benefit of both player and team. His regime found value everywhere, in all rounds of the draft, in the undrafted pool, and in free agency when warranted. Mike Daniels and David Bakhtiari are two of the premiere players at their positions, and both were fourth round picks.

There is a decent chance that the Packers can improve upon Dom Capers, who was probably a bottom third defensive coordinator, but improving on Thompson’s run will be extremely difficult. GM is now the single biggest area of risk for the organization, with a likely extension of Aaron Rodgers on the horizon.