Illustration by Tim Czerniakowski
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For the Packers, their next championship window is officially wide open. Green Bay is coming off a fine 2023 season in which they gave the eventual NFC Champion 49ers a scare in the playoffs, but more than anything, there is not a single NFL team better set up for continued success.
In the second half of 2023, the Packers had the unprecedented combination of the NFL’s second-best offense (to San Francisco) and its youngest, featuring a group of receivers and tight ends exclusively in their first or second years in the league. Romeo Doubs was one of the league’s best possession receivers. Rookie Jayden Reed, who led the team in yards per game, is one of the most promising slot receivers in football. Christian Watson has the most potential of any skill position player on the team, and the Packers believe they have identified the cause of his frequent hamstring injuries. And in the supporting cast, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton and Tucker Kraft all ranked as elite players on a per play basis, both in creating separation, and according to the advanced statistic DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).
The team did lose guard Jon Runyan Jr. to the Giants, as well as star running back Aaron Jones to the rival Vikings, but those losses should be mitigated, at least partially, by first round draft pick Jordan Morgan, a versatile offensive lineman out of Arizona, and free agent running back Josh Jacobs, who was one of the best backs in football in 2022, and is still just 26 years old. The team also brought back reliable veteran AJ Dillon, and drafted the dynamic, (but fumble prone) Marshawn Lloyd out of USC.
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On offense, the Packers are stacked.
Dysfunctional Defense?
But to be true contenders, they will need to improve on the defensive side of the ball after three years in Joe Barry’s dysfunctional system. New defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley will likely switch to a more aggressive, attacking style, and is expected to move from a base 3-4 system to a 4-3. Ultimately, the system itself will not be as important as Hafley’s situational play-calling. Barry was perfectly willing to concede a third-and-five in order to prevent big plays and long touchdowns, which often led to easy conversions for Packer opponents while also doing little to prevent those big plays. Hafley’s defenses have a reputation for gambling, and in the modern NFL, that style can pay big dividends. While it can result in the occasional embarrassing touchdown, the trade-off of avoiding long, meticulous drives is well worth it.
The Packers also took a savvy approach to fixing their two biggest holes on defense, investing big free agent money in safety Xavier McKinney, and supplementing his signing with three draft picks (Javon Bullard of Georgia, Evan Williams of Oregon and Kitan Oladapo of Oregon State). One of Green Bay’s biggest strengths is understanding just how random the draft can be, and so they give themselves as many opportunities to address problem positions as they can.
They took a similar tack at inside linebacker, where they have been routinely poor since Desmond Bishop manned the middle for the 2010 Super Bowl team. There, they spent a second-round pick on Texas A&M’s Edgerrin Cooper and followed it up with the third-round selection of Ty’Ron Hopper out of Missouri.
Team Building
The Packers were savvy in their approach to team building, and they should be a better team than they were in 2023. Unfortunately, they will need to be, as the NFC North is likely to be much improved. The Bears have almost certainly improved at quarterback with first overall pick Caleb Williams, and figure to have one of the best receiving groups in football, having added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze to work along with DJ Moore. In Detroit, the Lions took a Packer-like approach to improving their greatest weakness in the secondary, signing corner Carlton Davis from Tampa, and drafting Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw with their first two picks in the draft. They won the division last season and remain the team to beat.
Only the Vikings took a step back by allowing Kirk Cousins to leave for Atlanta. They’ll be relying on a combination of veteran washout Sam Darnold and rookie JJ McCarthy to keep them afloat, however, they could still be scary if McCarthy develops quickly, as they have one of the best all-around skill position groups in the league.
The Packers managed to entirely avoid a rebuild post-Rodgers by knocking last year’s draft out of the park. They should be title contenders this year, and if they have similar success with their 2024 draft class, they may be an NFC juggernaut for years to come.
